Thijs Van de Graaf

Managing the geopolitics of Europe’s fossil-fuel exit - Nature Energy As Europe gradually phases out its fossil-fuel imports, some producer economies face rising risks. With careful management, the European Union can turn this shift into an opportunity to advance both climate leadership and geopolitical stability.

In this Comment, Thijs Van de Graaf discusses how the European Union can gradually phases out its fossil-fuel imports to advance both climate leadership and geopolitical stability.

Managing the geopolitics of Europe’s fossil-fuel exit Nature Energy - As Europe gradually phases out its fossil-fuel imports, some producer economies face rising risks. With careful management, the European Union can turn this shift into an...

🚨 Publication alert 🚨

My new Nature Energy Comment is out today.

Core argument: as Europe phases out fossil fuels, decisions about residual oil and gas supply can’t be left to markets alone. It's time for the EU to develop an upstream fossil fuel supply policy!

🔗 rdcu.be/eZHu1

Trump's energy trap for Europe In September, Donald Trump put a price on sanctions against Moscow. In a Truth Social post, he declared that the United States would act only if NATO allies stopped buying Russian oil and imposed...

Just as Ursula von der Leyen declared in her State of the Union that Europe is "on the path to energy independence," Trump has turned Europe’s energy lifeline into leverage.

How can Europe avoid this energy trap?

New essay by @thijsvandegraaf.bsky.social

big-europe.eu/publications...

⛽ Once hailed as 'molecules of freedom', US oil and gas now expose the EU to the whims of the White House.

As #EUCO meets today with a ban on Russian LNG on their agenda, @thijsvandegraaf.bsky.social argues that #energy independence lies not in a new supplier, but a new path.

🔗 shorturl.at/Ww3D5

Green Realpolitik: Recasting Europe’s Climate and Energy Diplomacy

Zoals Zeus ooit Europa op de rug van een stier wegdroeg, zo laten we ons vandaag meesleuren uit de arena van macht. COP30 vraagt om Green Realpolitik: waarden als hefboom, ambitie die bijt, en een Europa dat zelf het touw in handen neemt. @thijsvandegraaf.bsky.social

big-europe.eu/publications...

Green Realpolitik: Recasting Europe’s Climate and Energy Diplomacy

„The message in this report is that the EU must not abandon its values and green ambition, but it must express them in ways that are realistic and compelling (…). It means embracing a Green Realpolitik.“

@thijsvandegraaf.bsky.social

big-europe.eu/publications...

Brussels Institute for Geopolitics – BIG hosts ‘safe space’ strategy

The Institute hosted a 'safe space' session this week on Europe’s energy and climate diplomacy with six Commission DGs and the EEAS — a chance to break down silos and reflect on strategic priorities.

big-europe.eu/2025-04-03-b...

"We weten niet zeker hoeveel grondstoffen er precies zitten en of ze rendabel naar boven kunnen worden gehaald. En dat ontginnen zal nog 10 tot 15 jaar duren. Je moet er eerst geld insteken, wat goed is voor de wederopbouw van Oekraïne."

@thijsvandegraaf.bsky.social #terzake

Donald Trump signals Ukraine to blame for war US president suggests Ukrainian election is overdue in first remarks after talks with Moscow

Trump just blamed Ukraine for being invaded. This is beyond parody. He is literally repeating Kremlin propaganda word by word.

on.ft.com/4gKnqDT

Cheap Russian gas in Europe? No such thing As European officials consider the possibility of restarting Russian gas pipeline imports as part of an eventual peace deal in Ukraine, they should be clear about one thing: Russian gas never was, and likely never will be, cheap.

Nice peace by Ron Bousso for @reuters.com debunking the persistent myth that Russian (pipeline) gas to Europe is cheap. It never was and likely never will be.
www.reuters.com/markets/comm...

🇺🇸US 47th (& 45th) President Donald J. Trump was sworn in less than 24 hours ago.

✍️Here is a quick take of the first seven decisions that represent magmatic shifts in the country's energy and climate policies and strategies to which all stakeholders must adapt.
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The China commodities supercycle is over. Will there be another? Chinese demand for steel and iron ore has finally peaked. The industry hopes the energy transition will spark a new boom, but it will be shaped by geopolitical competition

How will shifts in demand, Trump and new geopolitical realities reshape global commodities markets? I was pleased to contribute to this excellent Big Read in the Financial Times: www.ft.com/content/8ae5...

Are cables the new pipelines?

As we enter the "age of electricity", our geopolitical maps of energy must adapt. Pipelines once shaped energy geopolitics; now, high-voltage cables like the 1,195 km #BlackSeaSubmarineCable are the new "corridors of power."

I wrote about it here: shorturl.at/V08ra