Just in: the first 10 °C of the year today in Finland (Hämeenlinna Katinen).
The date of 1st "double-digit" has tended to occur earlier over the last decades, except for some isolated occurrences in mid-winter (probably related to strong Föhn-events).
Nino3.4 region sea surface temperature forecast.
Wow, that's a monster signal for El Niño in today's new ECMWF seasonal forecast.
A weather chart showing pressure systems and rainfall over the North Atlantic and Western Europe, with coloured precipitation areas and labelled storm tracks.
📣 OpenIFS is now open source!
The move will make it easier to collaborate and generate new ideas.
➡️ www.ecmwf.int/en/about/med...
Map centered on the North Pole showing temperature departures from the 1991-2020 baseline (ºC) around the Arctic.
February 2026 for the Arctic overall (land and seas poleward of 60ºN) was the coldest since 2009 in ERA5 courtesy @copernicusecmwf.bsky.social. Northwest Territories, Canada had the second coldest February since 1994 while the Nordic Arctic the coldest since 2011. #Arctic #Climate #Winter2026
Annual maximum extent can be downloaded from here: www.eea.europa.eu/en/analysis/...
Time series graph showing the Baltic Sea annual maximum ice extent in 1900-2026.
The sea ice extent in the Baltic Sea probably reached its maximum on 20 February 2026, when the extent was 181,000 km².
Based on the maximum, this was the most widespread ice cover in the Baltic Sea since 2011, and overall the 5th harshest ice winter in the 21st century.
yeah, the mild airflow came one week too early, and the last days of February were relatively warm. Otherwise it would have been the coldest of this century!
Time series of Jan-Feb temperature in Finland in 1900-2026.
January-February in Finland was the 2nd coldest in this century, only a tad 0.2 °C warmer than the same period in 2010.
The average temperature in 2026 was -13.5 °C.
Monthly average sea level in Helsinki in 1922–2026. The latest value in Feb 2026 was the lowest on record.
For individual tide gauges, the month was the most anomalous in southern Finland. For example, in Helsinki, the observed -55.4 cm in February 2026 was below all months since 1922.
The previous record in Feb 1947 (-51.6 cm) was surpassed with a large margin.
Average Baltic Sea level, two panel-plot. First one shows the monthly distribution with Feb 2026 value highlighted in the far left side of the data. The 2nd panel shows the time series 1922–2026 with again Feb 2026 highlighted with a red circle.
New data for February 2026 confirms that the monthly sea level for the Baltic Sea was the lowest on record.
The average monthly sea level across all 14 Finnish tide gauges was -51.7 cm in February 2026, breaking thus the long-standing record set in February 1947.
Yes, 8 January 1987. These were the daily *mean* temperatures on that day.
Indeed. Surface fields were garbage, like it is evident here in @khaustein.bsky.social webpage www.karstenhaustein.com/reanalysis/g...
Mixed feelings. While NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis 1 was ancient and I would never use it in research, the "Daily Mean Composites" (psl.noaa.gov/data/composi...) was useful tool for climate monitoring.
Maybe @copernicusecmwf.bsky.social could develop a similar tool for ERA5?
Longest streak of ice days (days with maximum temperature below 0°C) for each winter year at the Helsinki Kaisaniemi weather station.
Today, after 37 days, the temperature will rise above 0°C again in Helsinki. 🌡️📈
This is the longest continuous streak of frost since the winter of 2009-2010 (59 days).
Yes here too last Sunday!
Short but intense I would say. And who knows if it still comes back!
Enjoy the winter while it lasts! Today may be the last proper "winter day" in southern Finland.
From tomorrow, temperatures rise above freezing as milder southwesterly air takes over and the persistent high-pressure-dominated pattern ends.
Tammikuun alun pakkasjakso Lapissa oli säätilastojen valossa 2000-luvun tähän mennessä ankarin, ja myös pidemmän aikavälin havaintoihin verrattuna voidaan puhua harvinaisen ankarasta pakkasjaksosta.
www.ilmatieteenlaitos.fi/artikkeli/7r...
Daily average temperature in Finland in 2026, based on FMI ClimGrid data. The values have been consistently below normal, except for 5-day period in mid-January.
The Finnish area mean temperature has stayed below normal now for 33 straight days.
The weather has remained consistently cold during 2026, except for the brief 5-day period in mid-January.
"Tammikuun alun pakkasjakso Lapissa oli säätilastojen valossa 2000-luvun tähän mennessä ankarin, ja myös pidemmän aikavälin havaintoihin verrattuna voidaan puhua harvinaisen ankarasta pakkasjaksosta."
Uusi ilmastokatsaus-artikkeli: www.ilmastokatsaus.fi/kuinka-harvi...
Would be interesting to see similar analysis over Finland's or Fennoscandian domain. The lack of precipitation has been likewise historic here.
Ice chart zoomed in over the Gulf of Finland.
The Gulf of Finland in the Baltic Sea is almost completely frozen over. Some open water areas still remain off the coast of NW-Estonia but they may freeze in the coming days.
Last time the Gulf of Finland has frozen over was in winter 2010/2011, 15 years ago!
Human-induced climate change amplification on storm dynamics in Valencia’s 2024 catastrophic flash flood
It increased 6-hr rainfall rate by 21%, expanded the area with >180 mm of rain by 55%, and raised total rain volume in the Jucar River catchment by 19% (+pre-ind)
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
Precipitation totals so far. There are plenty of stations that have seen less than 10 mm precipitation this year, especially in central Finland.
Precipitation totals in Finland in 1961-2026 during 1.1.–15.2. each year. The value in 2026 is record-low.
The year 2026 has so far been historically dry in Finland.
The total year-to-date precipitation in Finland (averaged over the country) is only 14.1 mm. That's 23 % of normal precipitation over such period.
Splash screen for the post: Arctic Regional Monthly Temperature Extremes: Easy today, but over time it's complicated.
Are temperatures far from "normal" becoming more common in the Arctic? It's an simple question but it quickly turns complicated. The latest post from the Alaska and Arctic Climate newsletter takes a look this thorny question. #Arctic #Climate
alaskaclimate.substack.com/p/arctic-reg...
Daily ice extent in the Baltic Sea (km²) graph. The ice extent of the previous winter is shown as a dotted line and the extent of the current winter as a black line. The blue curves show the largest and smallest ice extents (min–max) and fractiles (25%–75%) for the winters of 2007–2022, and the green line shows their median extent (50%).
Today, the sea ice extent in the Baltic Sea reached 178,000 km², surpassing the winter 2018 maximum and marking the highest extent since 2012.
en.ilmatieteenlaitos.fi/ice-conditions
Yeah. There was this new paper where my colleague Timo Vihma from FMI was involved: www.nature.com/articles/s43.... They found increased persistence but honestly, based on their figure 1, the overall signal does not look very strong.
Yeah, some area domain and sea level pressure averaged over that could work. But I feel it could be more complex than what it sounds. For example how to define persistence (what thresholds to use), etc.
Good question! Usually the first step is to detect whether there has been a change beyond natural variability. For this, one needs to define a "stuck event", which sounds complicated. But also very interesting! How would you define the event?
