@benramanauskas
Economist. Dreamweaver. Coconut Water Enjoyer. Very bad at BlueSky. Lapsed academic (Oxford: Blavatnik School of Government & Said Business School). Erstwhile adviser to the UK government (Trade, HMT, DHSC). Blog: https://opportunitylost.substack.com/
New blog post!
The bond vigilantes are the unsung heroes of the financial and political system. Imposing fiscal discipline on our profligate politicians. We should thank them - and heed their warning.
opportunitylost.substack.com/p/in-defence...
Least Favoured Nation(al historical site)
New blog post!
It's on why the Bank of England should cut interest rates this week - even though it almost certainly won't.
opportunitylost.substack.com/p/what-shoul...
New blog post!
Starmer's whisky trade deal with China is probably unlawful.
opportunitylost.substack.com/p/is-starmer...
New blog post!
It's on why Gordon Brown was right to sell off the country's gold reserves.
opportunitylost.substack.com/p/gordon-bro...
Back in 2024 I wrote that Trump 2.0 wouldn't mean a choice between πΊπΈ&πͺπΊ for π¬π§. Instead, in terms of trade, Britain's choice was always going to be between the US and China.
Think it's held up pretty well.
opportunitylost.substack.com/p/the-uks-ac...
Add hummus to it next time - an absolute game changer!
New blog post!
It's why Trump is right on trade.
opportunitylost.substack.com/p/trump-is-r...
New blog post!
It's on why the UK rejoining the EU Customs Union would be a mistake.
opportunitylost.substack.com/p/rejoining-...
New blog post!
Die Hard is a Christmas film. It also has a lot to teach us about free trade and the folly of protectionism.
opportunitylost.substack.com/p/what-if-di...
New blog post!
It's time for the Bank of England to be bold and cut interest rates by 50 basis points next week.
opportunitylost.substack.com/p/what-shoul...
An amazing man in so many ways.
New blog post!
The bond vigilantes are the unsung heroes of the financial and political system. Imposing fiscal discipline on our profligate politicians. We should thank them - and heed their warning.
opportunitylost.substack.com/p/in-defence...
New blog post!
The MPC was wrong to not cut interest rates on Thursday. The Budget is going to cause further damage to the labour market and demand will be far weaker than forecast by the Bank of England.
opportunitylost.substack.com/p/why-the-ba...
I keep forgetting to use BlueSky but I'm on the @cityam.bsky.social Shadow MPC. I voted for a 25 basis points cut. In the article I explain why I hope the Bank will also vote for a cut.
www.cityam.com/cut-interest...
Finally got around to reading the Policy Exchange how to cut public spending report.
A genuinely excellent contribution to the debate.
Rather starkly illustrates how hard meaningful cuts to public spending are by using actual numbers rather than weasel words.
policyexchange.org.uk/publication/...
I will write more about this Policy Exchange report when Iβm back from holiday, but broadly speaking I think itβs the most serious thinking from the British right on how youβd cut spending and the test for Con and Reform is βif you donβt like this, shut up about tax risesβ.
I have pretty solid admiration for this PX report by @igmansfield.bsky.social @benramanauskas.bsky.social et al, not because I love everything in it, but its honest about how if you want to cut spending, you must do hard unpopular things.
policyexchange.org.uk/publication/...
New blog post!
Declining cheese exports to π―π΅ teaches us 5 things: FX matters; agri tariffs are too high; non-tariff barriers are a real pain; π¬π§ needs to get better at export promotion; & trade takes place between firms & households, not governments.
opportunitylost.substack.com/p/brie-trade...
New blog post!
Itβs on why Rachel Reeves would be wrong to scrap the custom duty exemption for low value imports. It would: exacerbate the cost of living crisis; hammer small businesses; and be an attack on free trade.
opportunitylost.substack.com/p/the-uk-sho...
Again, keep forgetting to use Bluesky but here is a new blog post.
It's on why the government should unfreeze Fuel Duty before phasing it out and replacing it with road pricing.
opportunitylost.substack.com/p/when-is-a-...
I keep forgetting to use Bluesky but I've written a new blog post.
The two-child benefit cap is cruel and has failed on its own misguided terms. It should be abolished. This should be funded by scrapping the State Pension Triple Lock.
opportunitylost.substack.com/p/why-we-sho...
Keep forgetting to use Bluesky.
Anyway, here are my thoughts on the government's Trade Strategy.
opportunitylost.substack.com/p/some-thoug...
New blog post!
It's on why the government is wrong to clamp down on cheap imports. Instead it should move towards unilateral free trade and (probably) abolish the Trade Remedies Authority.
opportunitylost.substack.com/p/time-to-ab...
I'd say I'm a free market centre right person. Never bought the securonomics argument - would be impossible to try and replicate Bidenomics (and we shouldn't anyway).
New blog post!
It's on why I've changed my mind on British Steel and why I now think that (short term) nationalisation is the least bad option.
opportunitylost.substack.com/p/why-ive-ch...
New blog post!
It's on Trump's Nixon moment and why the tariff war is actually a currency war.
opportunitylost.substack.com/p/time-for-a...
Is the #UK government heading in the right direction on #housing?
To solve the housing crisis, we need to make better use of existing urban housing, build more in cities and build on the green belt to reach #NetZero @benramanauskas.bsky.social @lsepoliticsblog.bsky.social
A typically anti-UK diatribe from the EU-ultra equivalent of the Brexit ultras, both of them being agreed that they would like geography not to exist. @chrisgrey.bsky.social article is worth reading on the reset.
Wait! Trade Talks is back?!