Ha! should have figured you had it all clearly written! The version I learned was from Tracy Mott in a two class handouts (kaleckian inspired, with the same kind of clarity in your notes). It was a revelation to me as a student and is still one of the most useful things I’ve learned in economics.

Will rising productivity reduce jobs? Well that depends on output (effective demand). Will the benefits of productivity be enjoyed via lower prices and higher real wages? Well that depends on markups. Would be good if the Econ 101 student felt really comfortable with these accounting constraints.

I think the basic accounting of the relations between productivity, output, and employment (however measured), and the relations between markup, productivity (or its inverse), costs and price ought to be part of the literacy we expect Econ 101 to produce

I suppose it was you who taught me to be skeptical of uncertainty (though it confirmed my pre-existing bias)! Been a pretty good guide to economic affairs so far it seems.

I agree. I'm concerned about the recession predictions that lower the bar and make just the lack of a recession (even if the economy is sluggish) seem good. I'm also concerned about predictions of inflation (rather than a price level effect) for the same reason.

I have trouble understanding what is supposed to be driving a recession right now. I get the depressing effect of tariff "uncertainty," but is that enough to produce a freeze in money markets or a significant crash in investment spending if other major categories of expenditure aren't declining?