National carbon budgets are smaller than commonly assumed because scientists and countries count CO₂ differently. Our new study in Nature Communications corrects for this and finds that the 1.5 °C budget shrinks by ~50%, the 2 °C budget by ~20%. Paper + data: www.nature.com/articles/s41...
Thread 👇
Public discussion on the RCMIP3 protocol paper has now been opened!
Do send us your thoughts if you have any ideas on how we could make the intercomparison better!
New paper in ERL in which we study the effect of a long-known issue in climate emulators: that we typically calibrate them on only 150 years of 4xCO2 ESM runs. This a problem as we know the climate isn't in equilibrium after this time, but running ESMs is 1/N
iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1...
Excited to convene the upcoming EGU webinar on "Mental Health in Academia: Obstacles, Advocacy and Inclusion" on 9 February at 16:00 CET.
Open to all.
👉 Register here: www.egu.eu/webinars/694...
@egu.eu @egubg.bsky.social @anabastos.bsky.social @elsa-abs.bsky.social
Preprint out today in ESDD.
SRM's biggest risk is us.
'Peak-shaving' is a best-case scenario, with strong governance and international cooperation.
We propose a framework for messier geoengineering futures, which look more like, you know, the news. /1
egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/20...
Grateful to my co-authors & supervisors (Chris Smith, Camilla Mathison, Piers Forster), and to the SCM developers who sanity-checked my understanding 😅
Simple Climate Models (SCMs) are central to climate science & policy, but their diversity makes comparison difficult.
In this review we:
• summarise core SCM principles
• trace genealogy & design choices
• compare all 14 SCMs from previous RCMIP phases
🎉 My first publication is out in Geoscientific Model Development!
📝 “Review of climate simulation by Simple Climate Models”
⭐ Selected as a GMD Highlight Article
Link: doi.org/10.5194/gmd-...
🌍 Working on climate model emulation or impact projections?
➡️ Abstracts are still open for our EGU 2026 session “Advances in climate change emulation for impact projections” (#CL3.2.7)
SCMs, ML, emulator evaluations, impacts & more welcome.
🔗 Session info + link: www.egu26.eu/session/56612
#EGU26
Feel free to share with colleagues, or tag people who might be interested.
Hope to see many of you in Vienna!
If your research touches on climate model emulation or its applications to impacts (water, agriculture, energy, ecosystems, etc.), we’d love to hear from you.
📩 Abstract submissions are open.
🔗 Session info + link: www.egu26.eu/session/56612
The session is CL3.2.7: Advances in climate change emulation for impact projections.
We’re bringing together work on climate emulators of all kinds:
• simple climate models
• statistical / ML / hybrid approaches
• pattern scaling
• emulator comparison + evaluation
• real-world impact studies
Excited to share that I’ll be co-convening a session at EGU 2026 — and we’re now open for abstracts! 🌍✨
Thanks for the feedback. I have updated the website with a note explicitely saying that any feedback can be submitted to me directly until the discussion is open in GMD.
This means the EGUsphere discussion is closed (permanently) and we will have to wait until the GMD discussion opens to have a formal place to do that (which might take while...). In the meantime, feel free to send any feedback directly to me.
This is an annoying consequence of the route we have taken to get the pre-print out.
We first submitted the draft to EGUsphere in order to get the pre-print (so any modelling team can access the document), and then submitted the pre-print to GMD for peer-review publication.
We’re excited to open RCMIP3 to the community and to see the science that will grow from it.
If you work with RCMs/SCMs or IAM-linked climate components, we’d love to have you involved!
Huge thank you to everyone who contributed feedback during development, and to the fantastic team that made this possible! 🙌
🧊 RCMIP website: www.rcmip.org
We place particular emphasis on overshoot behaviour, climate reversibility, and the dynamics of net-zero and negative-emissions pathways — enabling the most comprehensive assessment yet of how RCMs represent carbon-climate feedbacks and long-term response.
This protocol is the result of a big community effort to coordinate how reduced-complexity / simple climate models are benchmarked, constrained, and evaluated for the IPCC AR7 cycle.
It introduces expanded idealised + scenario experiments, strong carbon-cycle focus, and alignment with CMIP7.
✨ New preprint out! ✨
Really happy to share that our manuscript “Reduced Complexity Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3: Experimental protocol for coordinated constraining and evaluation of Reduced-Complexity Models” is now available as a preprint on EGUsphere
🔗 Preprint: doi.org/10.5194/egus...
Newly published: an overview of FRIDAv2.1, a new IAM to model the coupled human-Earth system (including climate impacts!) gmd.copernicus.org/articles/18/...
OUT NOW: Global Tipping Points Report 2025
global-tipping-points.org
Our chapter on the "Implications of overshooting 1.5°C for
Earth system tipping points" is based on an associated paper: doi.org/10.31223/X52...
Minimizing climate overshoot is essential to prevent climate tipping points.
Only a few days left to send us your feedback about our plans to run the upcoming RCMIP phase!
We hope this intercomparison will be useful for the whole reduced-complexity modelling community. So:
✔️ contribute feedback
✔️ help design simulations
✔️ take a supporting or leading role
Please share with colleagues who might be interested—everyone’s welcome!
We’ve drafted:
a roadmap (plans + timelines): leeds365-my.sharepoint.com/:w:/g/person...
a list of requested simulations & variables (tiered): leeds365-my.sharepoint.com/:x:/g/person...
Deadline for comments: 1 Oct
We are hoping to IPCC AR7 with this exercise, which will include a new intercomparison of SCM carbon cycles.
We are also very open to the community driving intercomparisons of other model cliamate processes, so do get in touch if you would like to join this effort.
🌍📢 Calling all emulator / reduced-complexity / simple climate modelling groups!
The next round of the Reduced Complexity Model Intercomparison Project (RCMIP) is starting, and we’d love your feedback.
Our paper is out today in @nature.com where we assess a Prudent Planetary Limit for Geologic Carbon Storage:
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
I reviewed all 14 SCMs participating in at least one of the two rounds of RCMIP, summarising their development history and internal structure.
Essentially, it is the document i would have liked to have at the start of my PhD when I needed to get up-to-speed with climate emulation by SCMs.
