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Ingo Rohlfing

@ingorohlfing

I am here for all interesting and funny posts on the social sciences, broadly understood and including open science and meta science, academia, teaching and research. https://linktr.ee/ingorohlfing

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Latest posts by Ingo Rohlfing @ingorohlfing

README

The canvas() function from the ggview R package is very useful for previewing/tweaking a ggplot into publication-ready format: it renders a plot "as it would appear if saved to a file with the specified dimensions".

cran.r-project.org/web/packages...

#RStats #ggplot #ggview

05.03.2026 01:53 πŸ‘ 51 πŸ” 10 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 4

Indeed, LLMs can generate papers, and are rapidly improving at it. But generating papers is not the purpose of science. Generating papers is not even the purpose of writing lit reviews. The purpose is, yes, "to move the frontier of [human] knowledge".

1/3

04.03.2026 12:53 πŸ‘ 2 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

higher submission numbers because of submission fees. For publishers, a natural move seems to be to free journal space and collect much more revenue through APCs. The new bottleneck would then be researcher funding. Who can afford to spend 5x to 10x more on APCs than at present? 4/

03.03.2026 19:48 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

This is attributed to the mindless use of LLMs for writing and paper mills. If serious submissions significantly increase on top of that and nothing changes on the peer review side, many journals should have rates of >75%.
2) It is an interesting note that journals/publishers benefit from 3/

03.03.2026 19:46 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

across social science methods. ingorohlfing.wordpress.com/2026/02/22/t... Two notes related to the econ post:
1) If it ever meant anything, the desk rejection rate is a dead as a metric. Multiple editors report it has gone up over the past years because of obviously bad and badly fitting articles 2/

03.03.2026 19:44 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

Research and Publishing Are Now Two Different Things
causalinf.substack.com/p/claude-cod... The post breaks down for econ how the expected massive increase of submission numbers will impact publishing. On the quant side, it resonates with my post on the uneven impact of LLMs 1/

03.03.2026 19:36 πŸ‘ 3 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 1
Post image

Despite increasing use of observational data in public health, researchers are still hesitant to use strong causal language (for fear of overpromising).

New paper and comment in @bmj.com sets out new guidance on appropriate use/misuse of causal language

www.bmj.com/content/392/...

03.03.2026 11:44 πŸ‘ 65 πŸ” 23 πŸ’¬ 2 πŸ“Œ 7

Der FAZ-Kommentar, in dem Malmendier mit solchen SÀtzen abgetan wird: "Gemessen daran muss das Experiment Malmendier, die fern in Kalifornien lebt und arbeitet, als gescheitert gelten. Richtig Fuß gefasst hatte sie in der deutschen Debatte nie," hat mich an bekannte Hausberufungsskandale erinnert

02.03.2026 15:03 πŸ‘ 3 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0
Post image

Communicating uncertainty about our conclusions is an important scientific task.
Is reporting a point estimate and standard error good enough?
We propose a practical recipe for checking whether it is, and for improving our report when it is not. buff.ly/1RmUW1F

02.03.2026 14:03 πŸ‘ 5 πŸ” 2 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Sci publishers don't use DOIs in their content alert emails, do they? The URL one sees when hovering over a link in an email is not obviously a DOI. I guess they use something else to track who used a linked when? 2nd indication that DOIs are not used is that links in older emails often are dead.

01.03.2026 14:18 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0
Special Issue: Explanation and Causality in Sociology How to explain social phenomena? How to conceptualize causality and draw valid causal inferences? How to incorporate history and culture into explanations? ...

πŸ“š Special issue in KΓΆlner Zeitschrift fΓΌr Soziologie on Explanation and Causality in Sociology. Essential reading on where causal inference in sociology is heading
link.springer.com/collections/...

20.02.2026 12:13 πŸ‘ 18 πŸ” 12 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

New blog post by me: The β€œLLM revolution” is likely to have uneven consequences for different social science methods
ingorohlfing.wordpress.com/2026/02/22/t...
I think adoption of LLMs will be less common among qual researchers with consequences for publishing and everything career-related to it

24.02.2026 16:57 πŸ‘ 3 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

*maybe* this journal mistakenly thought the author submitted a registered report (or similar).

But if the position is "papers must not be pre-registered" I'd love to hear the justification.

23.02.2026 16:53 πŸ‘ 2 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

There are packages that output intermediate results of pipes, which enhances transparency, but implies there is more output displayed or popping up in a tab. Personally, I became a bit less pipy again because I want to use more base R again.

22.02.2026 13:43 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

With the advent of Claude Code and other tools, it may be possible to produce a curated journal policy database for disciplines with a limited input of resources. Ideally, publishers would maintain a database of journal policies, but this is highly unlikely to happen. 5/

18.02.2026 19:25 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

do also matter in legislative decision-making. Knowing formal guidelines, but not the informal practices of a journal is better than not knowing either. Most reaons for sunsetting TOP seem to target misinterpretations of the TOP factor, not the TOP factor itself. 4/

18.02.2026 19:23 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

some of the reasons that seem to account for the decision. Yes, there is a difference between stated guidelines and journal practice, but this is a common distinction that does not stop research in other fields. There is research on formal legislative procedures, not denying that informal norms 3/

18.02.2026 19:21 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

hard, probably because journal guidelines are not always well organized and imprecisely formulated, as is noted in the post. To me, this is exactly the reason why a curated database is highly needed. I understand COS has limited resources and needs to set priorities. Still, I am not convinced by 2/

18.02.2026 19:19 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

Sunsetting TOPFactor.org: What’s Changing and Why
www.cos.io/blog/sunsett...
@cos.io This comes unexpected. I know that the TOP factor drew criticism (what doesn't?) which is mentioned in the post.
I don't think this is a good development. Finding curated information about journal policies is 1/

18.02.2026 19:17 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0
Preview
Sunsetting TOPFactor.org: What’s Changing and Why COS shares our plans to sunset TopFactor.org, what prompted the decision, and how the research community can keep advancing open and transparent policymaking.

Since 2020, TOP Factor has helped researchers understand how journals support open practices. On March 16, 2026, COS will be sunsetting the tool.

Read more about what prompted the decision, what we've learned, and the future of open and transparent policymaking: www.cos.io/blog/sunsett...

18.02.2026 19:14 πŸ‘ 8 πŸ” 6 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Meine Rede... Siehe mehrere Heisenberg Stipendiaten in meinen Bekanntenkreis, die irgendwie KEINE Uni ΓΌberzeugen konnten bisher, sie mit diesen 3+2 JAHRE aufzunehmen. Ich meine... die bringen wortwΓΆrtlich ΓΌber 1 Mio. mit. Aber nein. Und bevor es jemand einwirft: es liegt nicht an den Kandidaten!!

18.02.2026 10:25 πŸ‘ 13 πŸ” 2 πŸ’¬ 2 πŸ“Œ 1
Preview
The Coming Apocalypse for Scientific Publishing Price was right

The volume of AI-enabled decent scientific work will overwhelm scientific journals and reviewers. Good post about this except it ends on a strange note, that Wiley and Elsevier AI tools might save us, which is both unlikely and would give even more power to them.
open.substack.com/pub/thebsdet...

15.02.2026 19:17 πŸ‘ 10 πŸ” 4 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 2

I guess Stata is working on an AI integration bc it knows it will be toast otherwise in the medium run. At a reasonable pricing level, this may help in securing current subscribers. I am uncertain this will help in the long run bc it may not be attractive enough as an entry point to data analysis.

15.02.2026 19:11 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

I'm sceptical of most "AI will kill [insert job/field/method]" takes, but I'm increasingly of the view that AI will kill Stata. What's the point in paying for it when a Claude Code Max subscription costs about the same and does the same things and more in R/Python, exponentially faster and better?

15.02.2026 08:55 πŸ‘ 47 πŸ” 2 πŸ’¬ 6 πŸ“Œ 3

README Checklist by the Data Editors of Review of Financial Studies
review-of-financial-studies.github.io/readme.html An extensive checklist that is very useful. README files are likely something that is left for LLMs in the future, but it could be based on this template then. #OpenScience

15.02.2026 18:53 πŸ‘ 2 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

The way I think about this is that the distribution of effects is approximately sparse (most effects are very weak but nonzero). Journals/researchers are interested in effects that are surprising given that prior distribution.

14.02.2026 16:29 πŸ‘ 26 πŸ” 2 πŸ’¬ 3 πŸ“Œ 1

Yes but a 2c from this political scientist:

1) in polisci, which is more open to qual methods/soft data than econ, the claude code shock may mean that qual data & original measurements will increase value

2) that "hopefully" is doing *a lot* of work but again women tend to select in qual meth so 🀞

14.02.2026 16:05 πŸ‘ 6 πŸ” 3 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

This, probably in combination with some R+R demands having marginal benefit for improving a manuscript.

10.02.2026 16:17 πŸ‘ 10 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Every academic in their 40s goes through this career/life stage where they decide that the journals are broken and stupid. It's mostly because they are bored of working on R+Rs given that the marginal benefit for their own career of another publication is close to zero.

10.02.2026 16:15 πŸ‘ 43 πŸ” 6 πŸ’¬ 7 πŸ“Œ 2
Preview
The case for sharing clinical trial data The story behind the first statin and how its development was almost derailed, and the implications of sharing clinical trial data.

New short blogpost!

There are probably many benefits of sharing clinical trial data, including:

Verifying results, better meta-analysis, understanding inconsistent results, further exploration, better clinical decision-making, learning how to run trials better, and reducing redundancy.

09.02.2026 22:04 πŸ‘ 44 πŸ” 13 πŸ’¬ 2 πŸ“Œ 2