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David Dunning

@daviddunning6

Studying the psychology underlying human misbelief. Mary Ann and Charles R. Walgreen, Jr., Professor of the Study of Human Understanding, University of Michigan. (PS. Neither Justin nor I named it that. Best career move we never made.) he/him/his

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Latest posts by David Dunning @daviddunning6

George Benson with Glen Campbell - Affirmation
George Benson with Glen Campbell - Affirmation YouTube video by OhPal22

Time for a mental health break:

George Benson & Glen Campbell, Affirmation
July 2, 1976
www.youtube.com/watch?v=R41e...

03.03.2026 02:50 πŸ‘ 2 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

We're all connected. But how...exactly?

A quick dip into the history of network analysis in social science.

02.03.2026 20:11 πŸ‘ 7 πŸ” 2 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Happy St Totteringham’s Day to those who celebrate.

01.03.2026 18:59 πŸ‘ 2 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0
Preview
Cardiovascular Events during World Cup Soccer | NEJM The FΓ©dΓ©ration Internationale de Football Association (FIFA) World Cup, held in Germany from June 9 to July 9, 2006, provided an opportunity to examine the relation between emotional stress and the...

www.nejm.org/doi/full/10....

01.03.2026 18:33 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

If we make it that far.

01.03.2026 18:33 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0
Why Do Fools Think They Are Wise? Should the Wise Believe Themselves to Be the Fool? The closing program of the Academy’s 2025 Induction weekend featured a presentation by new member David Dunning on the psychology of overconfidence and its influence on decision-making, followed by a ...

The Winter 2026 issue of the American Academy of Arts & Science's Bulletin is online, w/ the transcript of my talk & conversation about our constant lifetime companion, our ignorance, focusing on new directions from the lab. From the Induction Weekend.

www.amacad.org/bulletin/win...

01.03.2026 17:09 πŸ‘ 5 πŸ” 2 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Thread that's required reading: What happens to locales when local newspapers evaporate.

28.02.2026 13:33 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
LAUGHTER IN THE RAIN - Neil Sedaka at the Midnight Special
LAUGHTER IN THE RAIN - Neil Sedaka at the Midnight Special YouTube video by ReadAboutThisVideo

RIP Neil Sedaka

Not my style of music but his compositions are marvels. Laughter in the Rain is sheer perfection.

From 1974; the back-up singers are figures in their own right.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=2IrD...

27.02.2026 23:31 πŸ‘ 2 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
"Mr. Chairman, Ranking Member, Members of the Committee... as a former Senator, I have respect for legislative oversight and I expect its exercise, as do the American people, to be principled and fearless in pursuit of truth and accountability.
As we all know, however, too often Congressional investigations are partisan political theater, which is an abdication of duty and an insult to the American people.
The Committee justified its subpoena to me based on its assumption that I have information regarding the investigations into the criminal activities of Jeffrey Epstein and Ghislaine Maxwell. Let me be as clear as I can. I do not.
As I stated in my sworn declaration on January 13, I had no idea about their criminal activities. I do not recall ever encountering Mr. Epstein. I never flew on his plane or visited his island, homes or offices. I have nothing to add to that.
Like every decent person, I have been horrified by what we have learned about their crimes. It's unfathomable that Mr. Epstein initially got a slap on the wrist in 2008, which allowed him to continue his predatory practices for another decade.
Mr. Chairman, your investigation is supposed to be assessing the federal government's handling of the investigations and prosecutions of Epstein and his crimes. You subpoenaed eight law enforcement officials, all of whom ran the Department of Justice or directed the FBI when Epstein's crimes were investigated and prosecuted. Of those eight, only one appeared before the Committee. Five of the six former attorneys general were allowed to submit brief statements stating they had no information to provide.
You have held zero public hearings, refused to allow the media to attend them, including today, despite espousing the need for transparency on dozens of occasions.
You have made little effort to call the people who show up most prominently in the Epstein files. And when you did, not a single Republican Member showed up for Les Wexner's deposition.
This institutio…

"Mr. Chairman, Ranking Member, Members of the Committee... as a former Senator, I have respect for legislative oversight and I expect its exercise, as do the American people, to be principled and fearless in pursuit of truth and accountability. As we all know, however, too often Congressional investigations are partisan political theater, which is an abdication of duty and an insult to the American people. The Committee justified its subpoena to me based on its assumption that I have information regarding the investigations into the criminal activities of Jeffrey Epstein and Ghislaine Maxwell. Let me be as clear as I can. I do not. As I stated in my sworn declaration on January 13, I had no idea about their criminal activities. I do not recall ever encountering Mr. Epstein. I never flew on his plane or visited his island, homes or offices. I have nothing to add to that. Like every decent person, I have been horrified by what we have learned about their crimes. It's unfathomable that Mr. Epstein initially got a slap on the wrist in 2008, which allowed him to continue his predatory practices for another decade. Mr. Chairman, your investigation is supposed to be assessing the federal government's handling of the investigations and prosecutions of Epstein and his crimes. You subpoenaed eight law enforcement officials, all of whom ran the Department of Justice or directed the FBI when Epstein's crimes were investigated and prosecuted. Of those eight, only one appeared before the Committee. Five of the six former attorneys general were allowed to submit brief statements stating they had no information to provide. You have held zero public hearings, refused to allow the media to attend them, including today, despite espousing the need for transparency on dozens of occasions. You have made little effort to call the people who show up most prominently in the Epstein files. And when you did, not a single Republican Member showed up for Les Wexner's deposition. This institutio…

as the public who also want to get to the bottom of this matter. My heart breaks for the survivors. And I am furious on their behalf.
I have spent my life advocating for women and girls. I have worked hard to stop the terrible abuses so many women and girls face here and around the world, including human trafficking, forced labor, and sexual slavery. For too long, these have been largely invisible crimes or not treated as crimes at all. But the survivors are real and they are entitled to better.
In Southeast Asia, I met girls as young as twelve years old who were forced into prostitution and raped repeatedly. Some were dying of AIDS. In Eastern Europe, I met mothers who told me how they lost daughters to trafficking and did not know where to turn. In settings around the world, I met survivors trying to rebuild their lives and help rescue others - with little support from people in power, who too often turned a blind eye and a cold shoulder.
If you are new to this issue, let me tell you: Jeffrey Epstein was a heinous individual, but he's far from alone. This is not a one-off tabloid sensation or a political scandal. It's a global scourge with an unimaginable human toll.
My work combatting sex trafficking goes back to my days as First Lady. I worked to pass the first federal legislation against trafficking and was proud that my husband signed the Trafficking Victims Protection Act, which increased support for survivors and gave prosecutors better tools for going after traffickers.
As Secretary of State, I appointed a former federal prosecutor, Lou CdeBaca, to ramp up our global antitrafficking efforts. I oversaw nearly 170 anti-trafficking programs in 70 nations and directly pressed foreign leaders to crack down on trafficking networks in their countries. Every year we published a global report to shine a light on abuses. The findings of those reports triggered sanctions on countries failing to make progress, so they became a powerful diplomatic tool to drive concrete…

as the public who also want to get to the bottom of this matter. My heart breaks for the survivors. And I am furious on their behalf. I have spent my life advocating for women and girls. I have worked hard to stop the terrible abuses so many women and girls face here and around the world, including human trafficking, forced labor, and sexual slavery. For too long, these have been largely invisible crimes or not treated as crimes at all. But the survivors are real and they are entitled to better. In Southeast Asia, I met girls as young as twelve years old who were forced into prostitution and raped repeatedly. Some were dying of AIDS. In Eastern Europe, I met mothers who told me how they lost daughters to trafficking and did not know where to turn. In settings around the world, I met survivors trying to rebuild their lives and help rescue others - with little support from people in power, who too often turned a blind eye and a cold shoulder. If you are new to this issue, let me tell you: Jeffrey Epstein was a heinous individual, but he's far from alone. This is not a one-off tabloid sensation or a political scandal. It's a global scourge with an unimaginable human toll. My work combatting sex trafficking goes back to my days as First Lady. I worked to pass the first federal legislation against trafficking and was proud that my husband signed the Trafficking Victims Protection Act, which increased support for survivors and gave prosecutors better tools for going after traffickers. As Secretary of State, I appointed a former federal prosecutor, Lou CdeBaca, to ramp up our global antitrafficking efforts. I oversaw nearly 170 anti-trafficking programs in 70 nations and directly pressed foreign leaders to crack down on trafficking networks in their countries. Every year we published a global report to shine a light on abuses. The findings of those reports triggered sanctions on countries failing to make progress, so they became a powerful diplomatic tool to drive concrete…

Infuriatingly, the Trump Administration gutted the Trafficking in Persons Office at the State Department, cutting more than 70 percent of the career civil and foreign service experts who worked so hard to prevent trafficking crimes. The annual trafficking report, required by law, was delayed for months. The message from the Trump Administration to the American people and the world could not be clearer: combatting human trafficking is no longer an American priority under the Trump White House.
That is a tragedy. It's a scandal. It deserves vigorous investigation and oversight.
A committee endeavoring to stopping human trafficking would seek to understand what specific steps are needed to fix a system that allowed Epstein to get away with his crimes in 2008.
A committee run by elected officials with a commitment to transparency would ensure the full release of all the files.
It would ensure that the lawful redactions of those files protected the victims and survivors, not powerful men and political allies.
It would get to the bottom of reports that DOJ withheld FBI interviews in which a survivor accuses President Trump of heinous crimes.
It would subpoena anyone who asked on which night there would be the "wildest party" on Epstein's island.
It would demand testimony from prosecutors in Florida and New York about why they gave Epstein a sweetheart deal and chose not to pursue others who may have been implicated.
It would demand that Secretary Rubio and Attorney General Bondi testify about why this administration is abandoning survivors and playing into the hands of traffickers.
It would seek out officers on the front lines of this fight and ask them what support they need.
It would put forth legislation to provide more resources and force this administration to act.
But that's not happening.

Infuriatingly, the Trump Administration gutted the Trafficking in Persons Office at the State Department, cutting more than 70 percent of the career civil and foreign service experts who worked so hard to prevent trafficking crimes. The annual trafficking report, required by law, was delayed for months. The message from the Trump Administration to the American people and the world could not be clearer: combatting human trafficking is no longer an American priority under the Trump White House. That is a tragedy. It's a scandal. It deserves vigorous investigation and oversight. A committee endeavoring to stopping human trafficking would seek to understand what specific steps are needed to fix a system that allowed Epstein to get away with his crimes in 2008. A committee run by elected officials with a commitment to transparency would ensure the full release of all the files. It would ensure that the lawful redactions of those files protected the victims and survivors, not powerful men and political allies. It would get to the bottom of reports that DOJ withheld FBI interviews in which a survivor accuses President Trump of heinous crimes. It would subpoena anyone who asked on which night there would be the "wildest party" on Epstein's island. It would demand testimony from prosecutors in Florida and New York about why they gave Epstein a sweetheart deal and chose not to pursue others who may have been implicated. It would demand that Secretary Rubio and Attorney General Bondi testify about why this administration is abandoning survivors and playing into the hands of traffickers. It would seek out officers on the front lines of this fight and ask them what support they need. It would put forth legislation to provide more resources and force this administration to act. But that's not happening.

Instead, you have compelled me to testify, fully aware that I have no knowledge that would assist your investigation, in order to distract attention from President Trump's actions and to cover them up despite legitimate calls for answers.
If this Committee is serious about learning the truth about Epstein's trafficking crimes, it would not rely on press gaggles to get answers from our current president on his involvement; it would ask him directly under oath about the tens of thousands of times he shows up in the Epstein files.
If the majority was serious, it would not waste time on fishing expeditions. There is too much that needs to be done.
What is being held back? Who is being protected? And why the cover-up?
My challenge to you, Mr. Chairman, Members of the Committee, is the same challenge I put to myself throughout my long service to this nation. How to be worthy of the trust the American people have given you. They expect statesmanship, not gamesmanship. Leading, not grandstanding. They expect you to use your power to get to the truth and to do more to help survivors of Epstein's crimes as well as the millions more who are victims of sex trafficking."

Instead, you have compelled me to testify, fully aware that I have no knowledge that would assist your investigation, in order to distract attention from President Trump's actions and to cover them up despite legitimate calls for answers. If this Committee is serious about learning the truth about Epstein's trafficking crimes, it would not rely on press gaggles to get answers from our current president on his involvement; it would ask him directly under oath about the tens of thousands of times he shows up in the Epstein files. If the majority was serious, it would not waste time on fishing expeditions. There is too much that needs to be done. What is being held back? Who is being protected? And why the cover-up? My challenge to you, Mr. Chairman, Members of the Committee, is the same challenge I put to myself throughout my long service to this nation. How to be worthy of the trust the American people have given you. They expect statesmanship, not gamesmanship. Leading, not grandstanding. They expect you to use your power to get to the truth and to do more to help survivors of Epstein's crimes as well as the millions more who are victims of sex trafficking."

Here is Hillary Clinton’s opening statement to House Oversight on Epstein.

Clinton says she does not recall ever encountering Epstein and says she knew nothing about his crimes.

She also says that Trump should testify under oath and criticizes the committee for not holding any public hearings.

26.02.2026 16:30 πŸ‘ 1793 πŸ” 623 πŸ’¬ 80 πŸ“Œ 101

Powerful forces, those.

26.02.2026 15:44 πŸ‘ 2 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
Preview
Large language models show Dunning-Kruger-like effects in multilingual fact-checking - Scientific Reports Scientific Reports - Large language models show Dunning-Kruger-like effects in multilingual fact-checking

AI Dunning-Kruger in factchecking across languages:

"Smaller models show high confidence despite lower accuracy, larger models higher accuracy but lower confidence. Gaps most pronounced for claims from the Global South, threatening to widen information inequalities."
www.nature.com/articles/s41...

26.02.2026 15:41 πŸ‘ 12 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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oops. White nationalism is a helluva drug.

25.02.2026 12:51 πŸ‘ 23290 πŸ” 6358 πŸ’¬ 1392 πŸ“Œ 476
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Since we all know the SOTU

Well played, TCM!

24.02.2026 23:17 πŸ‘ 105 πŸ” 9 πŸ’¬ 2 πŸ“Œ 0

Wait Up for You, The Belle Game
(qualifying it for the video; lyrics more ambiguous)
www.youtube.com/watch?v=dNyR...

20.02.2026 05:39 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

When I mention this to my Gen X colleagues, they go, "Yeah, whatever."

17.02.2026 20:42 πŸ‘ 2 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

qz.com/836658/donal...
From 2016

17.02.2026 20:41 πŸ‘ 3 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

Honorable Mentions:

Serpentine Fire, EWF
Into the Mystic, Van Morrison
Ode to Billy Joe, Janis Joplin
Hey Jude, The Beatles

15.02.2026 01:41 πŸ‘ 2 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Interstate Love Song, STP
www.youtube.com/watch?v=2AuX...

15.02.2026 01:39 πŸ‘ 2 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 2 πŸ“Œ 0
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12.02.2026 00:23 πŸ‘ 7262 πŸ” 1430 πŸ’¬ 109 πŸ“Œ 54

Agnotology: the study of deliberate, culturally induced ignorance or doubt, often produced by corporations or governments to manipulate public opinion, hinder research, or protect special interests.

Like you don't know smoking causes bladder cancer, too.

11.02.2026 20:22 πŸ‘ 2 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 1
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So much winning...

yougov.co.uk/internationa...

08.02.2026 18:38 πŸ‘ 100 πŸ” 23 πŸ’¬ 5 πŸ“Œ 7

Are you sure this isn't Borowitz, or Parker & Stone?

05.02.2026 14:40 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
You'll Never Find Another Love Like Mine
You'll Never Find Another Love Like Mine YouTube video by Lou Rawls - Topic

Well, no, that would be this...
www.youtube.com/watch?v=7RPj...

05.02.2026 02:40 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Coyote.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=LsJu...

05.02.2026 01:40 πŸ‘ 3 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

Judge Ana Reyes issues a stay of DHS Sec. Noem’s decision which was to go into effect tomorrow to end Haiti’s temporary protected status (TPS) designation. The conclusion of her opinion gets to the heart of it and should be read in its entirety.

03.02.2026 01:40 πŸ‘ 6 πŸ” 4 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 2
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Federal officials confirm taking 4 people into ICE custody in Ypsilanti - CBS Detroit Federal authorities have confirmed that U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement took four people into custody earlier this week in Ypsilanti.

Kids got off at the bus drop-off in Ypsilanti and their parents weren't there to pick them up because ICE kidnaped them

30.01.2026 13:36 πŸ‘ 592 πŸ” 345 πŸ’¬ 16 πŸ“Œ 15
Monty Python - Merchant Banker Sketch
Monty Python - Merchant Banker Sketch YouTube video by Bycho

Homo Economicus
www.youtube.com/watch?v=UVRQ...

28.01.2026 13:54 πŸ‘ 2 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

I myself am a traditionalist and prefer giving the lump of coal.

28.01.2026 13:49 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 2 πŸ“Œ 0

Applications for #UMich #Psychology Diversity Recruitment Weekend are in 2 days! If you are thinking about applying to psychology PhD programs in the future this may be for you! The application is short, but the benefits are big
lsa.umich.edu/psych/divers...

26.01.2026 18:41 πŸ‘ 12 πŸ” 14 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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Michigan folks: Ypsilanti Community Schools confirm several parents taken into custody by ICE.

Not in my fuckin town.

28.01.2026 01:43 πŸ‘ 229 πŸ” 131 πŸ’¬ 3 πŸ“Œ 12