Using all public storm reports from the NWS so far, I contoured a preliminary estimated snow accumulation map for today's blizzard (through 6-8pm EST tonight).
Truly a historic storm - both in terms of impacts, and the forecast challenges leading up to it.
Newark has been sitting under a stationary band all morning and has one of the higher totals in the NYC Metro area at 27.1β, which is very close to their record for a snowstorm.
This snow band is an all-timer, likely producing a foot of snow in just 3-4 hrs.
Supported by incredible lift w/in the ascending branch of the frontogenetic circulation, it follows that this band wonβt weaken but will contract. Whoever remains in that contraction will likely see 3+β of snowfall.
4β in the last hour and 32.8β total at Providence! Storm total sets a record for most snow in a single storm at Providence, easily beating the mighty Blizzard of β78. Heavy snow looks to continue there for several more hours.
Itβs so fluffy!
Only quadratically worse
Freezing rain has caused widespread power outages, which will continue to increase as winds pick up behind the cold front, causing additional tree and line failures, and freezing rain continues to fall across N GA, SC, NC, and VA.
00Z HRRR forecasted flat ice accumulations are downright scary. Maximum ice corridor from TX to TN and another maximum in N GA through S Appalachia look to be areas that will see the worst of it with extensive tree & power grid damage. These areas also tend to have high socioeconomic vulnerability.
Just putting this out there with a major, crippling winter storm on the horizon.
Wildfires in Chile rage for third day, entire towns wiped out
u.afp.com/SB5w
This aspect seems especially alarming to me. A tropical airmass overrunning a shallow, freezing airmass for an extended period and area. The amount of freezing rain being forecast, if verifying, would be crippling for a large area & include major population centers.
We also know FEMA is not ready.
[Monday, January 19 Analysis]
A major cross-country snow and ice storm is increasingly likely this weekend. Confidence is growing in a widespread swath of over 12" of snow & a significant ice storm.
I'll cover the big picture & forecast uncertainties in this thread:
One of the worst ice storms I've experienced was in Feb. 1994 (I think) when I was in middle school in Spring, TX. Remember waking up to no power & the sound of huge pine tree branches cracking and crashing down everywhere.
www.weather.gov/ohx/19940209
The forecast has similarities to that event.
Upcoming weekend winter storm needs to be watched for potential to produce a large swath of freezing rain, with potentially significant accretion and impacts, somewhere across the South. 12Z ECMWF shows a really nasty scenario π¬.
The Trump administration says it will dismantle a key climate-science center, while salvaging its forecasting capabilities. βToday, predicting the weather without considering the climate would be meteorological malpractice," Michelle Nijhuis argues.
NCAR provides the facilities, tools, & data critical for atmospheric sci education & research. Leading computer models of the Earth System are developed here. The training, continuing education, & sci exchanges NCAR makes possible are irreplaceable. Its dismantling would be chaotic & devastating.
-1F this morning at Albany, which breaks the record low for the date. Fresh snowpack, calm winds, and clear skies set up ideal conditions for radiational cooling. Last time a record low was broken in December in Albany was 1989, so definitely a rare occurrence.
Hurricane Melissa produced the fastest hurricane winds to be recorded by a dropsonde, verified by reviewing data at NSF NCAR! Hurricane Melissaβs 252 mph wind gust surpassed the previous record from Typhoon Megi over the Western Pacific in 2010, where a dropsonde measured wind gusts of 248 mph.
Details: This composite image was created using the Day-Night Band from the NOAA-21 and NOAA-20 weather satellites. It spans the ten-hour period from 03:28 UTC to 13:33 UTC on 2025-11-12.
Last night, a severe geomagnetic storm painted magnificent colors of the northern lights across a starry canvas over North America.
Gorgeous red and green aurorae over a lighted city below.
Gorgeous picture of red and green aurorae over a lighted city below.
I am on my way home to Toronto and the aurorae are absolutely phenomenal.
If you are anywhere in the northern half of the continent, get outside and look up! Or better still, put your camera on a 10 second exposure and point it up.
Northern Lights putting on an impressive show tonight.
The Vietnamese Bach Ma Mountain Peak station recorded one-day rainfall of 1,739 mm - close to the global one-day record and perhaps a new record for the northern hemisphere. It is part of a deluge Viet Nam has seen in October, shattering 35 precip records. e.vnexpress.net/news/news/en...
Yes, it is this scary in science. We were world leader only 10 months ago.
www.pbs.org/newshour/sho...
Multi-panel view of the last few days of Hurricane Melissa:
βοΈ GOES-19 infrared brightness temp
βοΈ GOES-19 visible satellite
βοΈ Hurricane hunter planes & flight paths
βοΈ Recon-derived flight level wind swath
β¬οΈ Estimated minimum pressure from recon dropsondes
Iβm dubious of the value of adding another category.
Given the Saffir-Simpson scale is based on wind and is used to communicate the severity of hurricanes to the public, a more important question is how do we better communicate the surge and flooding severity, which are far more deadly.
According to NHC, #Melissa made landfall along the SW coast of Jamaica at 1700 UTC.
...CATEGORY 5 MELISSA MAKES LANDFALL IN JAMAICA... ...ONE OF THE MOST POWERFUL HURRICANE LANDFALLS ON RECORD IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN... Melissa has made landfall in southwestern Jamaica near New Hope with estimated maximum sustained winds of 185 mph (295 km/h) and an estimated minimum central pressure of 892 mb (26.34 inches). THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION! DO not leave your shelter as the eye passes over, as winds will quickly, and rapidly increase on the other side of the eye. Residents should remain in place through the passage of these life-threatening conditions. To protect yourself from wind, the best thing you can do is put as many walls as possible between you and the outside. An interior room without windows, ideally one where you can also avoid falling trees, is the safest place you can be in a building. You can cover yourself with a mattress and wear a helmet for added protection. The next position update will be provided with the intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC) . SUMMARY OF 100 PM EDT...1700 UTC...INFORMATION LocatIoN..18.1N 78.0W ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM SE OF NEGRIL JAMAICA ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM S OF GUANTANAMO CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...185 MPΠ...295 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT... NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 9 PH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...892 MB...26.34 INCHES
Visible satellite image of Melissa at 1:01pm EDT, October 28.
#Melissa makes landfall in southwestern Jamaica near New Hope as a powerful category 5 hurricane. For the latest updates visit hurricanes.gov
I was worried for my crew mates when I saw them circling in the eye for over 20 mins. Looks like the very rough ride was confirmed. Plane had to leave early. They reported svr turb and a "sawtooth" eye. Looks like they moved 600-700ft up & down during this stretch in ~1 min.
There were a few times I thought an ERC was beginning, only for it to vanish quickly.
I like @pppapin.bsky.social hypotheses. I'd also look at the radial vorticity profile to see it there was something anomalous about it.
Ultimately, what was missing for an ERC? Someone's PhD dissertation waiting.
Without knowing the details of the impacts of the tidal cycle in this area, it is seriously impossible to imagine a worse case scenario for surge as far as the angle a category 5 hurricane is hitting this bay.
