John Quiggin

Penny Wong: Australia could help defend gulf states against Iran The foreign minister declined to back US President Donald Trump’s insistence that he play a role deciding the next Iranian leader, saying it was up to the Iranian people.

Time to break with Labor and Trump #auspol

Preference Labor ahead of the other Trumpist parties, but don't pretend they are anti-Trump (= anti-Nazi). They are joining Trump's war because they are bound to him by AUKUS.

If science proceeds by funerals, gender balance proceeds, in large measure, by retirements. By next International Women's Day, I'll have done my bit in that regard #johnqpersonal

More soon on this, I hope.

And Labor is complicit in this, denouncing Hanson while trying to attract her voters. A commitment to break with Trump would place Greens on one side, Lab-LNP-ONP coalition on the other.

The immediate way to signal this is to position the Greens as fighting Trump and all his Australian allies, from #Hanson to #Albanese. The idea that One Nation is uniquely beyond the pale has been abandoned by the Liberals and Nationals, with all three seeking to occupy the same territory.

For a long time, I've taken the view that the #Greens should act, informally, as a leftwing coalition partner for #Labor, pushing for stronger and more progressive policies. But that's no longer tenable. The Greens need to fight Labor rather than giving critical support. #auspol

Every child should be wanted Don't have another baby for the sake of the nation

Every child should be wanted : Don't have another baby for the sake of the nation

Falklands was a precursor, but Argentines had very few missiles. If they'd prepared for a war, things might have turned otu differently.

Lame reporting from NY Times. Doesn't mention crucial fact that safety of flights depends on an agreement between Gulf States and Iran. Comparable to deals with Houthis for transit through Red Sea.

www.nytimes.com/2026...

Scattered thoughts on Trump and Netanyahu's war against the Iranian regime Rather than attempt a coherent analysis, I'm writing down some thoughts as they come to mind

Scattered thoughts on Trump and Netanyahu's war against the Iranian regime

Russia might once have been a global power, but now it's a poor, medium-sized country with a big nuclear arsenal, part of the Chinese sphere, if not happy about it. North Korea similar.

Were the critics at the time (of whom I was one) correct, of was it a valid analysis derailed by unforeseen events.

It would be a demonstration of a commitment to reporting the truth, however uncomfortable, if you undertook a review of this exercise and reported the results.

I've sent this letter to the Sydney Morning Herald. Not expecting it to be published, let alone acted upon, but you never know.

Three years ago, the SMH and other Nine papers published a series of articles asserting that war with China was likely within three years. Clearly that hasn’t happened.

Antoun Issa (@antounissa) CNN reporting that the THAAD’s radar (the most sophisticated and expensive anti-air system in the world) in Jordan was destroyed (along with THAAD radars in the UAE). These are big hits for the Iranians, explained in the quote I screengrabbed 👇🏽

Trump has already decided to abandon Asia-Pacific as well as Europe.

This is a big deal. Confirmed by satellite imagery and reports US plans to relocate THAADs from South Korea. Implications

Iran doing severe damage to US missile defence. If war goes on, and Iran still has a lot of its own missiles, they will start doing more damage as interceptors run out

You are misinformed. Greens offered to negotiate with Labor, Rudd stuck to deal with Turnbull, from which Libs had walked away. And Rudd could always have called a double dissolution.

War with China in three years? Paul Keating unleashes on Nine's 'Red Alert' hysteria In March 2023, Nine newspapers unleashed an extraordinary series warning of war with China within three years and our unpreparedness for it. On the third anniversary, former prime minister Paul Keating has made some trenchant observations about it.

Nine's date for war with China passes, unobserved except by thoseof us who called it out at the time. Peter Hartcher is silent #auspol

If you ignore household structure and administrative procedures, negative income tax and UBI are identical and same is true of a means-tested Guaranteed Minimum Income.

I'd pay my share of the additional tax needed to finance this, which would be (as it should be) more than I received.

I'd pay my share of the additional tax needed to finance this, which would be (as it should be) more than I received.

What Is Iranian Air Power Strategy? What is Iran directly targeting, indirectly targeting, and can it succeed?

Phillips O’Brien discusses some possibilities.

So far, it appears as if US-Israeli bombing has been highly effective in suppressing Iran’s missile and drone capacity, resulting in many fewer counterattacks after Day 1. This contradicts my expectations, based on the failure of the similar campaign against the much weaker Houthis.

I certainly won't mourn the end of journal articles. I turned out several hundred back in the day, I've focused much more on books and blogs for a long time.

I certainly won't mourn the end of journal articles. I turned out several hundred back in the day, I've focused much more on books and blogs for a long time.

As Albanese pushes further to the right, the Greens need to challenge the system more sharply

Cul de sac politics: Have the Australian Greens hit a strategic dead-end? Why aren't the Greens offering a stronger challenge to the political establishment?

Cul de sac politics: Have the Australian Greens hit a strategic dead-end?

US submarines have cost $1 trillion (2025 dollars) since 1945. About half of this on conventionally armed boats, as opposed to nuclear ballistic-missile submarine. First sinking of an enemy vessel today. Not an outlier - only two such sinkings since WWII (Pakistan vs India and UK vs Argentina).

Rubio made a statement to the effect that Netanyahu was going to strike anyway so Trump joined in. Not quite the same point but relevant