Robert Ward

This morning’s walk - a Cotswolds hare enjoying the early sun.

RIP the great, great Alfred Brendel. There are so many wonderful recordings by him to choose from—the Schubert piano sonatas, the Beethoven piano sonatas and more. But this recording of the Brahms piano concerto no.1 is hard to beat. Recorded in 1979, it’s still glorious. Musical titan, indeed.

Japan, South Korea leaders agree to build stable ties in 1st phone talks Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba and new South Korean President Lee Jae Myung agree to build stable bilateral ties amid a severe strategic environment, with both expressing hope to meet in perso...

The Lee-Ishiba call ticked the boxes it needed to to keep ROK-Japan relations on an even keel. Ishiba’s was the second call made by Lee to a foreign leader (after that to Trump) after taking office. Cf prev ‘progressive’ Moon, where Japan was behind China.

english.kyodonews.net/news/2025/06...

Last night’s view - Tokyo Tower looking superb. #東京タワー

Sunset this evening in Tokyo with Mt Fuji silhouetted in the distance. Yesterday’s rain has cleared the air. Just stunning.
#sunset #富士山 #mountfuji #japan

One of the joys of Tokyo in June is the roadside hydrangeas. Spotted these gorgeous specimens over the past couple of days. #Japan

Japan’s new demographic stats are a shocker. Speed of recent decline in Japan’s births is clear in this Nikkei chart—dip below 1.1m in 2005, below 1m in 2016, below 900,000 in 2019, below 800,000 in 2022 and below 700,000 in 2024. All this 15 yrs ahead of govt’s expectation. Nikkei chart.

Nikkei map showing Kamandag military exercise (shaded blue circle). Spread of countries represented is striking—US, Philippines, Japan, ROK, UK. Map also refers to strategic alignment between China, Russia and DPRK and China’s own maritime advances.

US sld have studied Japan’s response to China’s curbs on rare earth exports to 🇯🇵 as bilateral geopol tensions rose. An early example of 🇨🇳’s weaponisation of trade interdependence. 🇯🇵 changed policy in response, building stockpiles etc. Here, US looks underprepared for geoecon struggle w 🇨🇳. FT pic.

Asahi chart showing top 10 foreign holders of US Treasuries. With USD1.3trn, Japan tops the league, well ahead of no.2 UK and no.3 China.

But this is not really a leverage tool for Tokyo in negotiations. PM Hashimoto issued veiled threat in 90s, but rowed back. 🇯🇵 🇺🇸 security rels too important.

A beautiful light on yesterday’s walk first thing, despite the cloud.
#Cotswolds #landscape #countryside

Ishiba rebuffs tax cut demands with Greek debt comparison The premier said he disagrees with the idea of funding tax cuts with Japanese government bonds, signaling caution over additional government spending.

PM Ishiba exaggerates somewhat. Yes, Japan’s public debt stock is higher %GDP than Greece’s, but the economies are quite different structurally, Japan has its own currency/owns most of its debt etc.

Ishiba rebuffs tax cut demands with Greek debt comparison www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2025/05...

South Korea denies report of first-ever joint drill with Japanese troops in Philippines South Korea’s Ministry of National Defense denied a report that its marines will participate in joint drills with Japanese forces.

2025 was to have been a banner year for Japan-ROK ties, marks 60 yrs since diplo relations started. This hiccup highlights lingering bilateral challenges, compounded by political uncertainties on both sides.

www.stripes.com/theaters/asi...

Global current-account (im)balances—‘Donald Trump’s presidency is in part a symptom of this reality’. From excellent Wolf piece in FT on excess global savings.

Very pleased to announce that my new IISS Adelphi book on Japan is nearly with us. The tome considers whether 🇯🇵’s new grand strategy, defence reforms etc are up to the strategic task that 🇯🇵 has set itself against the background of increasing tensions around Taiwan in particular. On Amazon etc.

A reminder of China’s live-fire exercises around Taiwan. Map from this week’s Economist piece on the exercises foreshadowing a Chinese blockade of the island.

This morning’s walk - some unexpected companions. #Cotswolds

Fantastic. Love swifts - always sad when they leave at the end of the summer

I think they’re extra specially good this year. The flowers plus the birdsong were just perfect.

…more of today’s wonderful bluebells.

This morning’s walk. A carpet of English bluebells—there are few things finer.
#Cotswolds #bluebells

Beautiful Paris - Île Saint-Louis, 4th, yesterday.
#Paris #streetscape #city

Apple’s shift of for-US iPhone assembly to India from China highlights how quickly some production can move (here, by end-2026) and how US economic policy will force further supply-chain fragmentation—for-China production/for RoW prod already in train—as MNCs build resilience. FT paras.

Chinese biz mag Caijing the first to report Chinese tariff exemptions for certain chip imports, then more from Bloomberg and Reuters

China blinked too - but not publicly. And the most interesting line: "The Caijing report was deleted from its website and official WeChat channel by noon Friday"

Hidden Paris - 11th, last week.
#Paris #streetscene #city

Japan, UK to ease personal data transfers to foster medical research Tokyo will work to match privacy protections with global leader Britain

Some rare good news… Excellent to see concrete things happening as UK-Japan strategic economic relations tighten. All the more so given fragmentation of cross-border data flows. This will be good for R&D and more in this critical area.

asia.nikkei.com/Business/Tec....

Sir András Schiff after a sensational 90 minutes or so of Bach’s Art of Fugue last night at La Salle Pierre Boulez at the Philharmonie de Paris. Stunning.

Walk in Paris last week - rue du Faubourg Saint-Antoine. #Paris #streetscape #city

…and here are some more.

So many favourites from the visit earlier this week to see the David Hockney show at Paris’s Fondation Louis Vuitton. Joyous, fabulous and life-affirming—lifted the spirits…