Joyce Karam

Thank you. I couldn’t find it here

Post by @joycekaram.bsky.social: "Video of a shepherd in #Lebanon evacuating with his herd from Naqoura on Israel’s border to western Beqaa. They’ve already been walking for 2 days and expect 3 more to go. War doesn’t spare anyone…"

China seeks deconfliction in Iran war regardless of regime future China’s leverage remains limited, with little influence over the US, Israel and Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, so it’s left adapting to Iran’s uncertain future through economic adjustments ...

#China is not losing sleep over Khamenei, sees opening on Taiwan, but:
• Iran war complicating oil flow
• Threatening Gulf allies
• Forcing deconfliction deals
• Looking at Russia. This week's newsletter www.al-monitor.com/newsletter/2...

UAE billionaire Habtoor openly lambasts Trump over Iran war The Emirati businessman condemned the US president, a former business partner, for his “dangerous” attack on Iran and asked whether he had stopped to consider the collateral damage.

NEW: UAE billionaire Habtoor openly lambasts Trump over Iran war
The Emirati businessman condemned the US president, a former business partner, for his “dangerous” attack on Iran and asked whether he had stopped to consider the collateral damage. www.al-monitor.com/originals/20...

This is increasingly looking like phase 2 of the plan in the Iran war. Big gamble for the Kurds who have been let down numerous times in the past.

US-backed Kurdish forces poised to enter Iran from Iraqi Kurdistan 'within days' The CIA has reportedly been in contact with Iranian Kurdish armed groups since last year, as Israel has pressed for Kurdish engagement.

SCOOP: Iranian Kurds, in contact with CIA now in Iraq, are poised to cross to #Iran in next few days. Masoud Barzani no longer opposed. @amberinzaman.bsky.social reporting:
www.al-monitor.com/originals/20...

The French have a base in UAE and many shared interests with Gulf, US in region. They could also be planning evacuations

It's as if Iran is daring Gulf states to join the war. The open +blatant nature of the attacks targeting Qatar, UAE, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Oman and Bahrain could prompt decision to join the war. Gulf has not been that vulnerable since Saddam invasion of Kuwait in 1990

Suspected Iranian drone hits Dubai Consulate as France deploys carrier to region The US Consulate in Dubai was struck by a suspected Iranian drone on Tuesday as the war continues to expand across the region. The Dubai Media Office said that a fire resulting from a "drone-related" ...

UPDATE: Day 4 Iran war
• Drone hits US consulate in Dubai
• US closes Lebanon, Kuwait, Saudi embassies
• Pakistan warns Iran over targeting Saudi
• France sending carrier
• Israel gives Iran figures in LB 24 hrs to leave
• > 787 killed in Iran www.al-monitor.com/live-blog/su...

The Venezuela analogy simply doesn’t apply to Iran. There is no ‘Venezuela scenario’ in Iran or Middle East. This is 47‑yr‑old entrenched security ideological regime with web of proxies across the region. To compare it to any Latin American case is not just misguided, it’s naive.

where we are:
- IRGC flexing muscles regionally despite losses in command & infrastructure
- Lebanon dragged in last night but more stable now
- US (Trump + Hegseth) preparing for possibility of ground troops & longer war
- Race between interceptors (Gulf) vs missiles (Iran)

Qatar downs two Iranian jets as Trump expects prolonged war Qatar’s Defense Ministry said Monday its air force shot down two inbound Sukhoi Su-24 tactical bombers that entered its airspace from Iranian territory.The incident marked the first time a Gulf Arab s...

UPDATE: Day 3, Iran war
• IRGC says Hormuz CLOSED
• Tanker set of fire
• Qatar downs 2 Iran ✈️
• US emb. in Jordan evacuates
• Total 6 US forces killed
• > 550 dead in Iran
• F-15s down in Kuwait www.al-monitor.com/live-blog/qa...

Israel anticipates anti-regime protests in Iran, unlikely to invade Lebanon Israeli diplomats and military officials are concerned that the surge in oil prices will prompt the US leader to end operations against Iran before regime change is reached.

EXCLUSIVE: Sources tell @AlMonitor Israel sees anti-regime protests as imminent in #Iran, is unlikely to invade #Lebanon before Iranian situation clears out. Details www.al-monitor.com/originals/20...

- still very risky given bloody history in country, Iran’s role, and Hezbollah’s own retribution
- Implementation will not be easy given challenges Lebanon army faces

Context
- would not have happened without emerging public consensus on issue. Lebanese are fatigued by decades of fighting their own & outside wars
- follows US pressure on gov

In first, Lebanon government bans Hezbollah’s military activities Lebanon’s government announced on Monday an immediate ban on Hezbollah’s military and security activities, after the group launched a series of rockets toward Israel, triggering intense Israeli airstr...

🚨 BIG: #Lebanon BANS Hezbollah’s military activities after rockets fired at Israel.
Major decision by Beirut try avert both getting dragged into Iran war & civil war. www.al-monitor.com/originals/20...

This is already the largest war in scope regionally perhaps since Saddam invaded Kuwait in 1990. Gulf, Israel, US, Jordan, Lebanon, even Cyprus looped in

Trump says Iran war could last ‘4 weeks’ but US ready to talk President Donald Trump said on Sunday that the conflict between the United States and Iran could run for several weeks. “It’s always been a four-week process,” Trump told the Daily Mail, adding: “We f...

UPDATE: Hezbollah enters #Iran war, reportedly firing missiles at Israel from South Lebanon. Israel now retaliating across Lebanon including in Dahiye (S. Beirut).

The 2024 ceasefire was already shaky but this is what many in Lebanon hoped to avoid. Latest: www.al-monitor.com/live-blog/tr...

Less than 48 hrs into war, Trump says ready to talk to regime in #Iran. “They want to talk, and I have agreed to talk, so I will be talking to them”, he tells Atlantic.

Comes as 3 US troops killed, IRGC hit UAE, Kuwait, Oman, Saudi, Iraq, Syria, Qatar, Israel. Hormuz crippled.

Three US troops killed in war with Iran: CENTCOM

JUST IN: Three US troops killed in war with Iran. Day 2 www.al-monitor.com/originals/20...

Also, not sure why some calling this “an attack” or “an operation” and not war. It is a war, and one that is likely to drag on

Some notes
- This is a war that is drawing entire Gulf region, disrupting navigation, oil flow
- If US had in mind Venezuela scenario, it’s not materializing yet. No sign of regime cracking or backing down yet
- Lebanon is breaking rule with Hezbollah showing restraint (so far)

Iran vows revenge for Khamenei’s death as missiles fired toward Gulf, Cyprus Iran vowed revenge on Sunday for the death of its Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, who was killed in US and Israeli strikes in the Iranian capital, Tehran, a day earlier, as Iranian attacks across the Gul...

DAY 2: US/Israel - Iran war

• Drones hit Oman, missiles @ Cyprus, UAE heavily hit
• Leadership of 3 post-Khamenei
• 🚢 stranded, turn from Hormuz
• 1000s of flights ❌
• Bomb shelter hit near Jerusalem
• Israel, US bombing
• > 300 total casualties www.al-monitor.com/live-blog/ir...

Trump says Iran’s Khamenei is dead US President Donald Trump said that Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was killed as US and Israeli strikes hit the Iranian capital, Tehran, on Saturday."Khamenei, one of the most evil people in Histo...

UPDATE: TRUMP says KHAMENEI DEAD

• US and Israel confirm
• Barrage of missiles at Tel Aviv
• Drones hit Dubai int’l airport www.al-monitor.com/live-blog/tr...

🙏🏼

Increasing chatter in Israeli media that Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei has been killed. No US confirmation, no Iranian confirmation as of now.

Iran also says Khamenei is directing operations "from war room" . It's been less than 12 hrs on war

Iran hits Gulf, Israel as IRGC declares closure of Strait of Hormuz Iran struck targets across the Gulf and in Israel on Saturday after the United States and Israel attacked the Islamic Republic, in a confrontation that has already left over 100 casualties across the ...

Here we go: Iran's IRGC announces closure of Hormuz Strait, carries 20% of global oil supply www.al-monitor.com/live-blog/ir...

Closing Hormuz and/or disrupting shipping around Suez is Iran's strongest weapon to make global impact. Gas prices, global shipping disruptions already expected. Lot of rumors on Khamenei, nothing confirmed yet but he has not appeared (yet)

Iran hits Gulf, Israel; Threatens shipping in Strait of Hormuz Iran struck targets across the Gulf and in Israel on Saturday after the United States and Israel attacked the Islamic Republic, in a confrontation that has already left over 100 casualties across the ...

UPDATE: US/Israel - Iran war
• Khamenei whereabouts unknown
• Khamenei son in law killed
• Iran threatens 🚢 in Hormuz
• Iran missiles, drones hit across region
• Netanyahu to speak soon
• Israel says targeted 30 Iranian leaders www.al-monitor.com/live-blog/ir...