Andrew Lautz

The $1,776 military bonuses came from appropriations in the One Big Beautiful Bill, not tariff revenue.

t.co/nSLJNdCo3K

You can't balance the budget through cutting waste fraud and abuse alone.

Entitlement spending and interest expense are driving our spending.

The Congressional Budget Office estimates that, even with the larger IEEPA tariffs now ruled illegal by SCOTUS, tariff revenues would only make up 6% of federal revenues over the next 10 years.

Here's what the tax cut looks like for someone claiming the overtime and/or tips deduction. At maximum amounts, it can lead to a tax cut of $6,000.

For most taxpayers, it will be smaller, due to rules/limits.

For more:

bipartisanpolicy.org/explainer/th...

bipartisanpolicy.org/explainer/ne...

On a nominal dollar basis, the One Big Beautiful Bill is the largest tax cut in history. As a share of GDP, the bipartisan deal to make the Bush tax cuts permanent was larger.

Trump has announced he's using Sec. 122 to implement a "global" 10% tariff.

Can last for up to 150 days (so perhaps July 20, 2026).

Advantage of 122 is it requires no investigation and no waiting period. Disadvantage is it's capped at a 15% rate and 150 days.

www.cnbc.com/2026/02/20/t...

Word of the Week: Trump calls tariffs 'the most beautiful word.' Here's its history President Trump has repeatedly called tariffs "the most beautiful word in the dictionary." NPR's Word of the Week explores how they got their name.

All fair questions. I'm not sure of the exact answer(s), but one plausible answer is Trump just loves tariffs. We've seen him talk about them for their economic effects, foreign affairs effects, and revenue effects.

www.npr.org/2025/04/09/n...

Wondering where the Trump administration might go next after the SCOTUS ruling striking down IEEPA tariffs?

We have a chart for you @bipartisanpolicy.org! Web version here: www.datawrapper.de/_/kvams/?v=5

And thanks to @bbkogan.bsky.social for reminding me to post here more often :)

Jokes aside on this, while this strikes down roughly 70% of the new tariffs, we expect Trump to switch to using different (more annoying for him) authorities for most of these, and we think those have a higher likelihood of surviving in court.

This is just the beginning of a very, very long battle.

Thanks for sharing Bobby!!

What's Plan B? Options the Trump Administration Could Pursue if the Supreme Court Strikes Down Tariffs If the Supreme Court rules President Trump cannot levy tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), his administration may look to alternatives to levy new tariffs and/or continue collecting revenue from imports that could include: Law/Framework Details Limitations Sec. 232 tariffs Limited to imports deemed a threat to national security. Requires investigations, which may take months. Sec. 301 tariffs Allows for tariffs against countries USTR determines are engaged in unfair trade practices. Each tariff is limited to a particular country. Requires investigations and consultations with foreign governments, which may take months. Sec. 122 tariffs Allows for tariffs to address "balance-of-payment" deficits, which can include trade deficits. Can only last for up to 150 days, and are limited to a 15% ad valorem rate. Sec. 338 tariffs Allows for tariffs when the president finds a foreign country is disadvantaging or discriminating against U.S. commerce. Generally limited to 50% of the value of the goods. There is a 30-day delay after a presidential proclamation before tariffs are triggered. Sec. 201 tariffs Allows for tariffs to address harm to U.S. domestic industries. May only last for up to 8 years (initial 4 years plus optional 4-year renewal), and are limited to a 50% ad valorem rate. After 1 year, tariffs must phase down "at regular intervals." Requires investigation from ITC. Reclassify as "licensing fees" President Trump suggested that if SCOTUS strikes down lEEPA tariffs, he may reframe them as licensing fees. If the same or substantially similar to lEEP tariffs, any lEEPA licensing fees" may be subject to further legal challenges. Congress codifies tariffs Congress could codify some or all of President Trump's tariffs in statute. Unclear if there are majority votes in either chamber to codify tariffs. Bilateral trade agreements Presid…

Incredibly helpful table from @andrewlautz.bsky.social

thanks Bobby! We'll be updating these on a weekly basis during filing season

Last night we got our first IRS update on the 2026 tax filing season. While it's too early to lock in trends:

- Avg refund is $2,290, ⬆️ than most recent years
- 22M returns have been received, ⬇️ from recent years
- 127M have visited IRS.gov, ⬆️ from last year

bipartisanpolicy.org/issue-brief/...

The 2026 Tax Filing Season: What to Know • Bipartisan Policy Center The 2026 federal tax filing season, scheduled to open in late January and end on April 15, is one of the most anticipated in years. Tens of millions of taxpayers are expected to receive larger refunds...

Whether the filing/refund experience will materially change or slow down for taxpayers? Too early to tell, and, as always, depends on how easy your return is.

bipartisanpolicy.org/issue-brief/...

We've said before that this filing season will be a stress test on the IRS: funding cuts, staff reductions, OBBB changes (see next post).

This story highlights an early response to that stress test: involuntary, 4-month reassignments of HR/IT staff to taxpayer services.

‘Setting this agency up for failure:’ Amid staffing crunch, IRS taps employees with no relevant experience to assist during filing season The tax agency is taking unusual steps to prepare for its busy season after watchdog finds it is severely underprepared.

The IRS is asking seasoned employees without any direct tax experience to perform entry-level tasks of answering phones and processing tax returns, a step impacted staff call unprecedented as the agency scrambles to prepare for filing season.
buff.ly/52RfQeA

How Should Cryptocurrency Be Taxed? Bipartisan Principles on Mining, Staking, De Minimis, and More • Bipartisan Policy Center Digital assets are becoming a major force in the U.S. and global economy, raising complex questions about taxation and regulation. As Congress considers new rules—especially for stablecoins—taxpayers ...

New from us @bipartisanpolicy.org: crypto tax policy is a hot topic on Capitol Hill right now.

We have some broad thoughts on how lawmakers should be thinking about de minimis, mining/staking, and more:

bipartisanpolicy.org/issue-brief/...

“There are a lot of things that are likely to drive higher refunds [during the 2026] filing season.” Our own @andrewlautz.bsky.social was quoted in today’s CNBC story on the 2026 filing season. Read the article to see how your tax returns are affected this season.

Rolling Average of GDP Growth Trending Downwards | Created with Datawrapper From 1960 through 2024, the 10-year rolling average of real GDP growth has generally trended downward, from 3.6% in 1960 (an average of the 1951-1960 period) to 2.5% in 2024 (an average of the 2015-20...

Folks can argue growth will be higher than CBO is projecting in the years to come.

But CBO is not saying 1.8% because they're biased. It's because the population is aging and productivity is on the decline.

Full chart:

www.datawrapper.de/_/GQbti/

President Trump and Speaker Johnson have both called out the Congressional Budget Office's 1.8% economic growth assumption for the next decade.

Setting aside the notion CBO does projections based on the party in power (they don't), growth has been on a clear downward trend for decades.

SALT Cap Trade-Offs | The Brian Lehrer Show | WNYC The impact of raising the cap on SALT (state and local tax) deductions that benefit many New York and New Jersey taxpayers.

ICYMI: Is the SALT deduction always/sometimes/never a good policy? @andrewlautz.bsky.social on the impact and trade-offs of raising the SALT deductions cap:

www.wnyc.org/story/salt-c...

Today:
- @andrewlautz.bsky.social on raising the SALT deductions cap,
- Envisioning 'good government' in NYC with @citizensunionny.bsky.social,
- @contrapoints.bsky.social on conspiracy theories,
- Listeners, what would YOU wait on line for?

Live at 10 on 93.9 FM, AM820 or @wnyc.org

More Americans may be paying individual alternative minimum tax if a change in the House-passed Republican tax-and-spending package remains in place.

But it won't get close to pre-TCJA levels, @kylepomerleau.bsky.social and @andrewlautz.bsky.social say.

buff.ly/Ak16FNg

Lawmakers from both parties want to revisit the current $10K cap on state and local #tax (SALT) deductions. Our explainer details how the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act changed SALT, who is most affected by the present cap, & suggests principles for fiscally responsible reform.

🔗https://bit.ly/4lhqOK9

Congress' tax scorekeeper, JCT, is out with new scores today on the cost of extending the 2017 GOP tax cuts.

JCT finds that extension costs $4.1 trillion over 10 years, and $700 billion more tacked on due to the extra interest payments we'll have to make on our debt.

punchbowl.news/wyden_merkle...

What’s in the FY2025 Senate Budget Resolution | Bipartisan Policy Center The Senate Budget Committee introduced a budget resolution for fiscal year (FY) 2025 and passed it out of committee on an 11-10 party line…

New from Rachel Snyderman and I:

What’s in the Senate GOP budget?

💸 1) up to $5.7 TRILLION in higher deficits/debt

🫣 2) an attempt to obscure a huge portion of that behind a "current policy" baseline that says tax cuts are free.

Read more:

bipartisanpolicy.org/explainer/wh...

Happy baseline week. Remember: no budgetary rule can make $4.5 trillion in tax cuts cost $0!

Current policy just obscures the cost from the public and breaks decades of precedent.

📈 Congressional Budget Office finds extending Trump tax cuts w/o pay-fors would increase debt to GDP by almost 50 percentage points by 2054.

The baseline is a political choice, but it doesn't change that extending the tax cuts w/o paying for them adds trillions to debt.

www.cbo.gov/publication/...

The baseline debate is important because it's about transparency and honesty.

What it doesn't change is that extending the 2017 tax cuts costs $4 trillion over a decade.

Some friends here do a great job of explaining this for folks who aren't enmeshed in nerdy budget battles.

Current Policy Baseline: The Budget Trick That Could Make Tax Cuts Look Free (Gift Article) A maneuver so wonky that it might be best explained with sports cars and anime streaming.

Aaron Judge's contract pays $40 million this year, but the Yankees are just continuing his current contract so it actually costs $0.

Sound ridiculous?

This is the "current policy" gimmick some Republicans are mulling for tax cuts.

Great metaphors here:

www.nytimes.com/interactive/...