Project on Managing the Atom

Deep in China’s Mountains, a Nuclear Revival Takes Shape (Gift Article) Satellite imagery of secretive nuclear facilities reveals Beijing’s efforts to expand its arsenal, just as the last global guardrails on nuclear weapons vanish.

In an article by The New York Times, Dr. Hui Zhang reveals how China’s secretive nuclear facilities are advancing sophisticated warhead design, offering new insights into the country’s growing strategic capabilities.

www.nytimes.com/interactive/...

This is really an important statement from Rep. Foster, confirming that even at the classified level, the administration has no plan at all to secure Iran's several bombs' worth of HEU. That's a huge danger to U.S. security -- from Iran, or from "loose nukes."

The Nonproliferation Review Beyond Nuclear Deterrence - Special Issue 1. Volume 31, Issue 4-6 of The Nonproliferation Review

We recently published 2 special issues featuring work from the Beyond Nuclear Deterrence Working Group @managingtheatom.bsky.social. You can read both collections, with many #OpenAccess articles.

Special Issue 1: tandfonline.com/toc/rnpr20/3...

Special Issue 2: tandfonline.com/toc/rnpr20/3...

A family tradition: Working to keep the world safe from nuclear disaster - The World from PRX Matthew Bunn recalls his father George Bunn — and their intersecting work to control the spread of nuclear weapons and material.

Just came across this decade-old interview, "The Nuclear Family," about the work my father, George Bunn, and I have both done to reduce nuclear dangers. Has a bunch of description of nuclear dangers and progress in reducing them that's still relevant today. theworld.org/stories/2016...

China expands nuclear warhead manufacturing capacity, research finds Satellite images suggest China is growing the sites where it makes warheads, while also preparing to retaliate faster — signs of its nuclear ambitions.

Quoted by The Washington Post, Dr. Hui Zhang sheds new light on China’s nuclear capabilities, revealing how early tests laid the foundation for a sophisticated and versatile warhead arsenal.
www.washingtonpost.com/world/2025/1...

Nuclear breakdown: How the end of the New START treaty will affect the arms race between Russia and the U.S. In early February, the Treaty on Measures for the Further Reduction and Limitation of Strategic Offensive Arms between the United States and Russia (better known as New START) expired, and no new agreement has been reached to take its place. However, a Cold War-style arms race appears unlikely, as Russia does not have the necessary resources for the mass production of new strategic weapons, argues nuclear policy expert Nicole Grajewski, an assistant professor at the Center for International Studies (CERI) at Sciences Po in Paris. In her view, a more likely future scenario involves Russia increasing the number of warheads on systems already in its arsenal while expanding production of nonstrategic weapons. The end of mutual inspections provided for under New START creates new opportunities to pursue such projects, even if Russia's coffers have been depleted by the war in Ukraine. China, however, does have the resources, and its nuclear program offers new causes for concern.

@nicolegrajewski.bsky.social argues that New START’s expiration won’t trigger a Cold War–style arms race, but rather a quieter shift toward warhead “uploading,” nonstrategic expansion, and greater nuclear ambiguity in a trilateral U.S.–Russia–China landscape.
theins.ru/en/opinion/n...

Radioactive Governance Examines the aftermath of the Fukushima nuclear disasterThe 2011 Fukushima Dai’ichi nuclear disaster was the worst industrial nuclear catastrophe to hit Ja...

MTA was pleased to host @maximepolleri.bsky.social for a discussion of his newly released book “Radioactive Governance
The Politics of Revitalization in Post-Fukushima Japan”.

Explore the book and its contributions to the field here: nyupress.org/978147983686...

Israel and the US strike Iran. It is a tragedy of Tehran's own making Iran's strategy rested on the critical assumption that the US administration preferred a deal to a war. That proved fatal on Saturday.

In a new opinion piece, @nicolegrajewski.bsky.social argues that Iran's nuclear strategy rested on the critical assumption that the US administration preferred a deal to a war.

Trump’s war on Iran: grave dangers and, at best, limited benefits As with the 2003 Iraq war, the path to conflict with Iran has been paved with false statements. Pandora’s box is now open: The consequences of the US and Israeli attack on Iran will be lasting but…

"It is hard to think of a case in which a foreign air attack on a country led to a change to a more democratic and peaceful government."
@matthew-bunn.bsky.social 's new piece for the Bulletin looks at some of the potential outcomes of the conflict.

'It's not true': Trump's reasons for Iran attacks questioned Donald Trump says Iran was developing nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles capable of striking the U.S. Analysts say that's not true.

Quoted in coverage of the strikes, @matthew-bunn.bsky.social says claims that Iran was on the verge of a nuclear weapon or U.S.-range missiles are exaggerated, noting its key enrichment facilities were already destroyed and regime change is unlikely.
www.usatoday.com/story/news/p...

Some points on possible strikes on Iran:🧵1/x

Trump’s war on Iran: grave dangers and, at best, limited benefits As with the 2003 Iraq war, the path to conflict with Iran has been paved with false statements. Pandora’s box is now open: The consequences of the US and Israeli attack on Iran will be lasting but are...

In the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, @matthew-bunn.bsky.social argues Trump’s war on Iran is illegal, strategically misguided, unlikely to curb Tehran’s capabilities, and risks worsening regional instability and global nonproliferation efforts: thebulletin.org/2026/02/trum...

Is Moscow planning to help their longtime ally Iran in this crisis? | DW News YouTube video by DW News

In an interview for DW News, @nicolegrajewski.bsky.social argues that Russia’s support for Iran is largely rhetorical, with no mutual defense obligation and limited military reliance on Tehran:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=dyTp...

Trump’s war on Iran: grave dangers and, at best, limited benefits As with the 2003 Iraq war, the path to conflict with Iran has been paved with false statements. Pandora’s box is now open: The consequences of the US and Israeli attack on Iran will be lasting but are...

Overall conclusion from my Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists piece on Trump's war on Iran, looking at what strikes might achieve and global reverberations: "It is hard to envision that the net result will be an improvement in US or world security."
#iran #nukesky
thebulletin.org/2026/02/trum...

MTA Associate @nicolegrajewski.bsky.social delivers a sharp analysis showing why U.S. strikes on Iran have not resolved the core nuclear challenge Read her article here: carnegieendowment.org/middle-east/...

Last nuclear weapons limits expired – pushing world toward new arms race The expiration of the New START treaty has the US and Russia poised to increase the number of their deployed strategic nuclear weapons, pushing the world into dangerous territory.

New piece on nuclear restraint after the expiration of New START, including the national security value of agreed restraints.
theconversation.com/last-nuclear...

💡 What are the questions that remain about Iran's nuclear capabilities? Francesca Giovannini from Belfer's Project on Managing the Atom joins BBC News to discuss. | Harvard's Belfer Center 💡 What are the questions that remain about Iran's nuclear capabilities? Francesca Giovannini from Belfer's Project on Managing the Atom joins BBC News to discuss.

In a BBC interview, Dr. Francesca Giovannini analyzes the renewed Iran nuclear negotiations, emphasizing unresolved concerns over enriched uranium, verification, and the strategic limits of diplomacy.

Watch it here: www.linkedin.com/posts/what-a...

How Much is Enough to Kill a Nation? Join us next Monday at 1:30 PM EST to discuss Great Power Nuclear Deterrence in a New Era of Countervalue Vulnerability with Jaganath Sankaran
www.belfercenter.org/event/how-mu...

Atomic Backfires The existential risks posed to the world by nuclear weapons are growing. Efforts to halt nuclear proliferation, manage crises, promote arms control, and buil...

Was a pleasure yesterday to help introduce the terrific new book on unintended negative consequences of counterproliferation, alliance, and arms control policies with editors Stephen Herzog, Ariel Petrovics, and David Giles Arceneaux. The e-book is open access.
mitpress.mit.edu/978026205185...

On Feb. 9, Professor @matthew-bunn.bsky.social presented his thoughts on the expiration of New START and what a post-New START geopolitical climate may look like:
www.belfercenter.org/research-ana...

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As the Trump administration’s “What about China?” nuclear arms control agenda for a New START follow-on unfolds, here’s a 2020 throwback. @thebulletin.org

Link here: doi.org/10.1080/0096...

Leading a discussion of the expiration of New START and what happens next at Managing the Atom, 1:30-3:00 today (Feb. 9). Take part if you're interested!
harvard.zoom.us/j/9102746884...

Trump's talks with Iran are risky. Here's why they beat attempts at regime change | Opinion A Deal Would Let Israel Police Iran's Nuclear Compliance While Countering Covert Support for Its Regional Proxies

In his piece for Haaretz, Ariel E. Levite argues that while Trump’s renewed talks with Iran are fraught with risk, diplomacy remains a more stabilizing and strategically sound alternative to regime-change efforts.

www.belfercenter.org/belfer-news/...

Five Questions with Matthew Bunn | Harvard Magazine The last treaty limiting nuclear arms buildup between Russia and the U.S. expires February 5. What’s next?

In Harvard Magazine, Professor @matthew-bunn.bsky.social cautions that the end of New START could spark an unchecked nuclear arms race, emphasizing that some form of restraint is critical to avoid “a world with no agreed limits” on U.S. and Russian arsenals.

www.harvardmagazine.com/five-questio...

'No limits': Russia, China and US enter new nuclear arms race YouTube video by The Telegraph

Pleased to discuss the implications of New START's expiration with the London Telegraph's "Battle Lines" podcast, along with RUSI's Darya Dolzikova.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=nlka...

Atomic Backfires: When Nuclear Policies Fail Join MTA for a Book Talk with Dr. Stephen Herzog, Professor of the Practice at the Center for Nonproliferation Studies and Associate of the Project on Managing the Atom; Dr. Giles David Arceneaux, Ass...

ONE WEEK until we hear from @herzogsm.bsky.social, @gdavidarceneaux.bsky.social & Dr. Ariel Petrovics on their newly released "Atomic Backfires: When Nuclear Policies Fail"

www.belfercenter.org/event/atomic...

STARTing Over? Russo-American Arms Control at a Crossroads YouTube video by Stimson Center

@matthew-bunn.bsky.social, alongside other nuclear experts, discuss the expiration of New START and what comes next for strategic arms control
www.youtube.com/watch?v=wg94...

Steven Miller and Toni Erskine introduce the Special Issue on “AI and the Decision to Go to War,” outlining how existing AI technologies may shape state decisions on the use of force through automated self-defense and AI-enabled decision-support systems.
www.cambridge.org/core/journal...

In a column for The Hill, @matthew-bunn.bsky.social warns that the Feb 5 expiration of New START risks an unconstrained nuclear arms race and urges the Trump administration to seize a proposed U.S.–Russia “strategic pause” as a gateway to broader nuclear restraint talks.

thehill.com/opinion/nati...

Join us for a Book Talk with Erik Lin-Greenberg on his newly released book "Remote Revolution: Drones and Modern Statecraft", next Monday, February 2nd at 1:30 PM EST --https://www.belfercenter.org/event/remote-revolution-drones-and-modern-statecraft