@duncanobrien
Research associate at the University of Bristol and NINA. Critical transitions, dynamics, and conservation action in aquatic ecosystems. #Rstats, ecology, tipping points Website: http://duncanobrien.github.io
🚨Paper alert🚨
Very happy to see our paper published in @science.org #ScienceAdv.
Very greatful to have worked with such a great team @duncanobrien.bsky.social #tomJohnson @robinfreeman.bsky.social #ValentinaMarconi #LouiseMcRae @expecocons.bsky.social
👇Check the main findings below!
Would dynamic multivariate panel models fit the bill?
doi.org/10.1016/j.al...
Software: docs.ropensci.org/dynamite/
🚨 Two funded PhDs (one int'l, one UK) - study coral restoration & corporate sustainability with us in Lancaster! Enquiries welcome, January 30, please share widely! 🚨
🪸🐠 Coral restoration (int'l): www.findaphd.com/phds/project...
🌴📊 Corporate sustainability (UK): www.findaphd.com/phds/project...
🚨 Job alert 🚨 Postdoc position in ecological forecasting 📈 as part of the Horizon Europe OSCARS call. The postdoc will be based in lovely Sevilla (fantastic place to live) and will include working closely with several European forecasting projects. Apply by Dec 11! 🌎🧪 globalchangeeco.com/jobs
PhD position at the University of Bristol (with me!) entitled 'The legacy impacts of extreme climate events on animal behaviour, physiology, and fitness'.
Fully funded and is available for UK-domiciled students of black heritage. Please reach out with any questions.
tinyurl.com/5n7s8yp9
🧊 Did your model freeze in time? Let’s bring it back to life!
Join our hands-on workshop “Building Near-Term Iterative Forecasting Workflows” at #TIBS2026 – Aarhus, 6 Jan 2026 🌍
We’ll explore how to turn static predictions into dynamic, self-updating forecasts. @paniw.bsky.social
I would highly recommend this group (it’s mine...) and city!
Very happy I to chat about being a postdoc with @expecocons.bsky.social
Join a UK-wide environmental monitoring community at #NEMC2025 to help shape the future of evidence-based environmental action.
Session proposals welcome on habitat condition, plastics, forever chemicals, impacts on people & wellbeing & urban monitoring.
Find out more:🔗 tinyurl.com/5369kwhf
Image of a Puffin by Sarah Kelman/BTO alongside wording over the image that reads: We're hiring. Senior Research Ecologist. Bioacoustics Support Officer. Seabird Monitoring Support Officer. www.bto.org/jobs
Join us at BTO! Discover jobs and apply at www.bto.org/jobs
Interested in doing a PhD? We have a paid opportunity to join us for a Research Experience Placement - a ~2 month project with some fun data collection and analysis on Manx shearwaters. You need to be a registered undergraduate to apply. Deadline 25th June, starts in July. Get in touch, link below!
🚨 We're hiring!🚨
Looking for someone interested in modelling biodiversity trends to work on the interface between academia and policy.
careersearch.westofengland-ca.gov.uk/jobs/job/Dat...
Get simulating! #Biodiversity / #foodweb dynamics with #julialang. Classic bioenergetic model, consolidation of lots of add-ons & super fast.
Very happy to share this, a result of amazing collaborators and a rich history of model development.
besjournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...
@theseabirdgroup.bsky.social
Poster of PhD advert about role gulls play in spreading disease and antimicrobial resistance. More info: https://www.findaphd.com/phds/project/what-role-do-gulls-play-in-spreading-disease-and-anti-microbial-resistance-nerc-gw4-dtp-phd-studentship-for-september-2025-entry-ref-5431/?p178297
Exciting PhD opportunity with @neeltjeboogert.bsky.social , @padpadpadpad.bsky.social (Exeter) and myself (Bristol) on gulls, their microbiomes, and role in transmitting disease.
Details below - deadline 13 January!
Would dynamite (docs.ropensci.org/dynamite/) help with this or is it too far removed from the SEM framework?
Stage introducing the time lag session
Looking forward to what is (in my opinion) the most under appreciated component in ecosystem management/conservation - time lags #BES2024
Heading up to #BES2024 today in Liverpool. Hopefully see lots of you there, and if you are going to be around why not drop in and see some of the group's talks (on #resilience, #seabirds, and #rewilding)
@britishecolsoc.bsky.social
I highlighted this in the paper for ordered beta regression, but I think many don't know this:
you can estimate ordbetareg *just fine* without obs at the bounds (0 or 1).
Maybe your current sample doesn't have 0/1s... but future samples could! Ordbetareg works fine for *any* bounded data.
#rstats
Feature 1 would be my new feature preference. Very excited to hear that it’s (potentially) coming.
Completely agree, and it’s likely the challenge of empirically estimating them. I’ve had a few ideas on how to do so (doi.org/10.1111/gcb....), but think many methods are inappropriate for most ecological time series.
Do you have any opinions about the best approaches for identifying time lags?
<Trying to decide between two data generating processes>
¿Porqué no los dos?
<celebration>
It’s time for mixture models.
HTML: betanalpha.github.io/assets/chapt...
PDF: betanalpha.github.io/assets/chapt...