Things are bad but at least there will be a bit of schadenfreude knowing that MAGAs driving a large pick-up that's not a work truck or a 7-passenger land yacht SUV w/ 1 or 2 kids, are going to be feeling pain at the pump.
Bad week to be short/fantastic week to be long crude oil volatility: Pic 1, wk over wk comparison by delta, and Pic 2 wk over wk compare by strike.
Specific example, Pic 3: Sell a May $55p at Mon close, 4 days later it's ~same price. CL/WTI soared (yeah!), but so did volatility (whomp whomp).
Good find, thanks. They received a lot of positive press in those days along the lines of "the little engine that could." And a number of colorful anecdotes about the flight attendants and Herb and his bottle of Wild Turkey.
That's right. Brilliant move! 😜
I think it's been that way for a LONG time, exception was Southwest when their large, active program gave them a significant cost advantage for a while. And then they had big losses, lost their advantage and gave up/mostly gave up hedging. (That's from memory but I think the gist is right).
Good overview of what we're seeing Iran do - executing a plan from long ago, elements of which they shared w/ neighboring countries and the U.S.
If the reporting is sound, no one at the top of US politics, military or "intelligence" s/b surprised.
www.wsj.com/world/middle...
The asymmetry of the value placed on human life is so striking. Israel has a goal to recover 40-year-old remains; to do so, it invades a sovereign country, and the lives of 26 Lebanese are an afterthought. Their names not even worth printing in the New York Times.
The first one is very nice. Do you know the approx year?
Add Arabian Gulf to the Gulf of Mexico, Dept of Defense, Somalis (they use the wrong demonym) and probably more that this administration chooses to identify however it pleases.
Add "Arabian Gulf" to
Gulf of Mexico
Dept of Defense
Somalis
Better make sure you have plenty of clean shirts; pretty sure you'll be in demand for another week of TV appearances. 😉
Today I was reminded about the origins of the globe-straddling CME. H/T @triforcecap.bsky.social for the prompt.
Enjoy one of the finest, most factual sentences ever: "Initially, the Chicago Butter and Egg Board traded only two types of contracts, butter and eggs."
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chicago...
BTW Polymarket does have egg contracts. Maybe they've been around a while; I just found them a couple of months ago. Haven't looked closely but if they settle on US CPI price, someone at a large firm w/ access to near real time food price scans will have an edge.
polymarket.com/event/price-...
There were scandals in onions & potatoes (spuds were a NY mkt b/c of Maine production). CME's broiler futures failed in the 1980s or 90s (concentrated, prob. not much need to hedge). I *think* eggs disappeared way before that but I'd have to look it up (there was a Chgo Butter & Egg exchange IIRC)
Have you even been in a restaurant where an older guy is rocking one of these? Cracks me up, but at the same time, respect because they just don't care.
Sure, crude oil & products, nat gas & LNG and wheat are getting all the press this week, but you know what commodity doubled at wholesale? Huevos!
Granted, they went from 37 cts to 74 cts and that's still a money-losing price, but a double is a double.
a couple of spinach leaves: they don't have much taste (same as iceberg crap), they're good for you and the presentation and photos would be much better.
But that's lipstick on a pig. the buns are generally awful and much too sweet at fast food chains. IDK why. Bread/buns are easy.
Crude oil market is pretty hot. ;-) Here's a May $110/bbl call from last Fri settle to current. 56 pts to 540 ($560/contract to $5400).
My summary: "if you own a private shipping company, you are a risk taker and odds are high that you are also a criminal, financial or otherwise." ;-)
Relevant
If you squint you can find the U.S. on this chart.
The cost of that cursed place over the years... 😡
Two photos. One shows Kristi Noem in a construction worker's outfit. The other shows her in a police officer outfit.
Two photos. One shows Kristi Noem in a nurse's outfit. The other shows her in an electrical worker's outfit.
Two photos. One shows Kristi Noem in a military outfit while riding aboat. The other shows her in a firefighter's outfit using a firehose.
Two photos. One shows Kristi Noem in a Westernwear outfit. The other shows her in a police officer's outfit.
good news. kristi noem has already found eight new jobs
A few days ago I learned that if the just-dumped Secy of DHS has 4-letter monogrammed towels they read "K.L.A.N." for Kristi Lynn Arnold Noem.
Just wanted to share that before she disappears (I hope).
similar to an old saying I heard or read somewhere about companies and countries: The balance sheet doesn't matter, until it does, and then it's the only thing that matters.
I like it because I think it's true and it's kind of a Yogi-ism too.
Related, perfect timing, just glanced at Ethanol Producer mag website.
Yep. The CO2 ruling should eviscerate corn ethanol, bio/renewable diesel, and the pipe dreams (note the clever pun) of CCS/sustainable aviation fuel.
Will it? IDK, but they're all more risky. And what if Calif says they're no longer going to fund Midwest manure farms' "renew" gas and renew diesel?
E15 is usually not priced at enough of a discount and new E85 cars are going the way of dinosaurs. However the rules settle out, I don't think they're going to move the needle a lot.
Also, warm fuzzy messaging about farmers and the admin's concern for the environment may not sell in 2026.
Tomorrow at 3p ET, only those with huevos gigante are going to be holding unhedged positions in crude and products.
LNG: Two to four weeks (at best?) before Qatar Energy LNG production and shipment begins again. Markets are supposed to incorporate all available information... IDK, maybe big players are expecting a faster return, plus safe, open shipping lanes for O&G.
Reuters snip/Mar 4
I think there is a Warren or Charlie-ism that's essentially "First, don't lose money" and esp. not in an IRA where you can't add a lot quickly or get a tax loss benefit.
