@chaznuttycombe
I'm on X much more than here. Follow @statenavigate.org for our latest. Executive Director of @statenavigate.org, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit organization. VT Alumni. Opinions my own. Contact: chaz@statenavigate.org
NEW: The full timeline of redistricting in VA this week and breakdown of new seats.
Dan Helmer successfully secured himself a seat in Congress.
statenavigate.org/map-favored-...
NEW INTERACTIVE OF VA US HOUSE PROPOSAL
projects.statenavigate.com/25-26/states...
WV Forecast out Tuesday at @statenavigate.org
We're #1.
Oh whoa!!!!
Ashley Tackett Laferty just won re-election handily in 2024, Rs always seem incapable of beating her. I have a hard time seeing her in a Toss-Up in a blue wave year
Irn Bru Xtra hits like absolute crack. We need it imported. Legalize aspartame in drinks other than Diet Coke
HOLD ME NOW, I'M 6 FEET FROM THE EDGE AND I'M THINKIN'
TBH wonder if any of them drop since they know running against her's a suicide mission. Like I think Walz would've drawn a lot of grassroots conservative dollars and attention given his national hatred from conservatives.
Klobuchar isn't beatable, the real challenge is holding her to a win margin of less than 15.
2026 is here! Happy New Years from State Navigate! 🎊
Happy Hogmanay y'all. If you'd like to support @statenavigate.org's 2026 expansion, make sure to make a tax-deductible 2025 donation in the remaining hours of the year!
statenavigate.org/donate/
Happy Hogmanay y'all. If you'd like to support @statenavigate.org's 2026 expansion, make sure to make a tax-deductible 2025 donation in the remaining hours of the year!
statenavigate.org/donate/
Welcome, to North Carolina Navigate.
statenavigate.org/north-caroli...
North Carolina @statenavigate.org out tomorrow
Chaz Nuttycombe on Untold, a WTVR Podcast, discussing State Navigate’s goals and our great team!
When one Nuttycombe rises, we all rise!
Insane
At just 26, Chaz Nuttycombe has taken the election prediction world by storm, becoming one of the most talked about and sought-after forecasters in the country.
Alaska Navigate comes out Wednesday.
State Navigate turned out to be one of the most accurate pollsters in Virginia in 2025. Here's our analysis for why we beat the rest of the pack.
https://statenavigate.org/why-polls-underestimated-democrats-in-virginia/
Best fill out the apology form lad
Prime example of course are the college town seats. For example, they have HD-41 as Trump +4.4. That's inaccurate.
In actuality when using the formula that was applied to the same process for CAPs in 2021 and prior, it was Trump +2.9.
projects.statenavigate.com/districts/st...
So yeah this is a big difference between our 2024 data and VPAP's. I don't know what their formula was for 2021 but it's probably pretty much the same as ours.
We used the formula for provisionals in 2024 so when you look at @statenavigate.org's data for districts that year it's more accurate.
Seeing that provisionals were allocated was such a pleasant surprise today, doing the formula is a pain for our staff.
Fun story from 2017. When I first met @pwcdanica.bsky.social it was at an event when I was barely 18. I showed her my predictions for the House of Delegates which had her in a Likely D/Solid D race. She disagreed and said she was in a Toss-Up.
She won by 8.
As a 26-year-old, I came up with the idea of sending our text messages to 18-29 year olds in lowercase to try to get them to respond to the survey. It worked like a charm.
As a political scientist, so privileged to be working with Michael Foley on our polling.
statenavigate.org/state-naviga...
Too late WhichSide Digital did it
You can now go to @statenavigate.org and see shifts by precinct district and county in VA from 24 presidential. We have allocated non ED votes via formula where localities haven't allocated yet.
projects.statenavigate.com/25-26/states...
