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Joe Cirincione

@joecirin

I've been working on national security in Washington for over 40 years. Government, think tanks and philanthropy. Now retired, I still write, lecture and do media interviews. And I'm still learning. On Substack at: joecirincione.substack.com

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Latest posts by Joe Cirincione @joecirin

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Exclusive: US investigation points to likely US responsibility in Iran school strike, sources say Military investigators believe it is likely that U.S. forces were responsible for an apparent strike on an Iranian girls' school that killed scores of children on Saturday, two U.S. officials told Reu...

Reuters Exclusive

"U.S. military investigators believe it is likely that U.S. forces were responsible for an apparent strike on an Iranian girls' school."

"The strike would rank among the worst cases of civilian casualties in decades of U.S. conflicts in the ​Middle East."

06.03.2026 02:50 πŸ‘ 9183 πŸ” 4904 πŸ’¬ 569 πŸ“Œ 595

They want to do a Gaza style campaign in Iran.

06.03.2026 03:51 πŸ‘ 8 πŸ” 2 πŸ’¬ 2 πŸ“Œ 2

I had no idea that the ship was defenseless and hosted by India. The Navy sank a sitting duck. And Hegseth brags about it like it was a brilliant tactical victory. It was a cowardly act. But what can you expect from an administration that shoots defenseless men clinging to a shipwreck?

05.03.2026 22:29 πŸ‘ 8 πŸ” 3 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0
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The worst is yet to come, warns Hegseth. Still no apology for killing 150 school girls in Tehran. What are the targets for the massive assault he promises? It may be that we are at the beginning of a Gaza-style assault to smash the ability of Tehran to function, in the hope the regime falls.

05.03.2026 22:16 πŸ‘ 12 πŸ” 3 πŸ’¬ 3 πŸ“Œ 1
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'You cannot bomb away another country's nuclear program. It's never worked β€” the knowledge is still there, the machinery is still there.'

CIP's @joecirin.bsky.social on the administration's case for war in Iran:

05.03.2026 20:16 πŸ‘ 5 πŸ” 3 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Exactly right. We have an afterimage effect here. Nations have a temporary, illusory perception of American competence that persists long after competence has disappeared. There was no careful planning for this war. No coordination with allies. No clear objectives or exit strategy. War on a whim.

05.03.2026 20:47 πŸ‘ 2 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Ask not for whom the bell tolls; it tolls for thee.

05.03.2026 20:40 πŸ‘ 17 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 1

Scott MacFarlane
@MacFarlaneNews
Another ten-cent increase today here in DC

Scott MacFarlane @MacFarlaneNews Another ten-cent increase today here in DC

Trump is throwing your taxpayer dollars at an illegal war abroad, while you spend more for gasoline here at home.

05.03.2026 19:45 πŸ‘ 128 πŸ” 30 πŸ’¬ 7 πŸ“Œ 3

Little known fact: Virtually all forms of lichen are smarter than Senator Markwayne Mullen.

05.03.2026 18:56 πŸ‘ 365 πŸ” 67 πŸ’¬ 21 πŸ“Œ 7

Stable Genius's new DHS simpleton made an illiterate

05.03.2026 19:26 πŸ‘ 25 πŸ” 8 πŸ’¬ 2 πŸ“Œ 0
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β€œAmericans are dying.”

At the J Street National Convention, @vanhollen.senate.gov called on Congress to reclaim its authority over decisions of war and peace.

No president should be able to launch a war alone.

05.03.2026 19:31 πŸ‘ 6 πŸ” 2 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 1

This is too good. She about to find out in real time that Trump has fired her. Just perfect.

05.03.2026 19:38 πŸ‘ 6 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

β€œ"So many [impact sites] so close together (relatively speaking) suggests there were one or more targets in close proximity to each other,"…

"[It] seems it was intentional to hit the area," he said, adding "But we don't know what they intended to strike."”

05.03.2026 19:32 πŸ‘ 2 πŸ” 2 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 1
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Trump’s claim that Iran was close to a nuclear weapon included an obvious tell Trump claimed Iran was two weeks away from possessing a nuclear weapon. During his presidency, major developments have always been two weeks away.

www.yahoo.com/news/article...

05.03.2026 18:17 πŸ‘ 2 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0
β€˜Simply not true’: Nuclear security expert debunks Trump’s claims about Iran
β€˜Simply not true’: Nuclear security expert debunks Trump’s claims about Iran YouTube video by MS NOW

Here is the video of my interview with Alex Witt. We walk through the steps needed to make a nuclear bomb. It is clear that Iran cannot possibly be β€œtwo weeks from a bomb.” You can not find any expert who agrees with this blatant lie. youtu.be/3AQbF_R2UAg?...

05.03.2026 15:43 πŸ‘ 9 πŸ” 3 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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Opinion | Trump's claim that Iran was close to a nuclear weapon included an obvious tell Jarvis DeBerry: Trump’s use of β€œtwo weeks” is enough by itself to warrant our skepticism.

I’m delighted to be included among the experts that @ms.now cites to debunk Trump’s absurd claim that Iran was β€œtwo weeks from a bomb.” www.ms.now/opinion/trum...

05.03.2026 15:39 πŸ‘ 42 πŸ” 14 πŸ’¬ 3 πŸ“Œ 1

You are very kind.

05.03.2026 12:29 πŸ‘ 3 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

β€œThe main account for the city, @CambMA, posted on Tuesday and Wednesday what it said would be its last updates on the app. It directed users to follow the city on rival apps Bluesky, Facebook, Instagram, and Nextdoor, and to sign up for email updates from the city.”

05.03.2026 12:28 πŸ‘ 5 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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After more than 15 years on the platform formerly known as Twitter, Cambridge is leaving X - The Boston Globe City councilors in the liberal enclave voted unanimously to leave a platform they said had become toxic under owner Elon Musk.

www.bostonglobe.com/2026/03/04/m...

05.03.2026 12:27 πŸ‘ 10 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0
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@joecirin.bsky.social, @jonatomic.bsky.social and @edwardluce.bsky.social join @djrothkopf.bsky.social to discuss the current situation in Iran, what this means for the US, and why we’re even there in the first place. podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/t...

youtu.be/9vt_-eA2JgI

05.03.2026 00:21 πŸ‘ 30 πŸ” 4 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 2
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Trump finally mumbled something I agree with: β€œWhen crazy people have nuclear weapons, bad things happen.”

04.03.2026 20:24 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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Last night on the @deanobeidallah.bsky.social show, national security expert @joecirin.bsky.social talked to Dean about the current polling of the war in Iran, and how it'll only get less popular as time goes on.

04.03.2026 15:44 πŸ‘ 15 πŸ” 10 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

The first 3 weeks of the 2003 Iraq War were a decisive US tactical victory. We easily defeated the 5th largest army in the world. But it was not over. It carried on for 20 years, cost hundreds of thousands of lives and $8 Trillion. Hegseth says this war will go on until β€œwe decide it’s over.” Right.

04.03.2026 17:13 πŸ‘ 9 πŸ” 2 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

Spain's leader with a message that should be adopted by every top Democrat

04.03.2026 12:44 πŸ‘ 5118 πŸ” 1541 πŸ’¬ 75 πŸ“Œ 42

Translation: β€œWe know but we won’t tell you and we will stall until you forget that we killed 150 school girls in the first hours of our unnecessary war. Here, look at these cool videos of our missiles hitting stuff.”

04.03.2026 13:46 πŸ‘ 22 πŸ” 11 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

He clearly does not understand what β€œautonomous” means.

04.03.2026 13:41 πŸ‘ 4 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0
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Today, Congress was finally briefed on Trump's war of choice in Iran.

Even behind closed doors, they couldn't get their story straight.

But one thing is clear: they don't have a clue what the end game is, and it sure as hell isn't making America safer.

04.03.2026 01:07 πŸ‘ 1457 πŸ” 554 πŸ’¬ 67 πŸ“Œ 25

So, wait...we forced Israel to force us to "proactively defend" ourselves by attacking Iran without provocation from them? Which means, if I understand this properly, that, per Trump and Rubio, we actually were the imminent threat to which we were responding? That's some 4D chess going on there.

03.03.2026 21:30 πŸ‘ 603 πŸ” 196 πŸ’¬ 27 πŸ“Œ 8
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Coming up on The @deanobeidallah.bsky.social Show:

@governor.ny.gov
@seena.me
@joecirin.bsky.social
@ariberman.bsky.social

☎️: 866-997-4748
πŸ”Š: siriusxm.us/Dean

03.03.2026 22:50 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

You know, I’m often harshly critical of our government’s policies, but when I go (or talk) abroad, I feel that I should represent our country in its best light. That has become impossible. There is no way to defend what Donald Trump and his band of incompetents is doing to our nation β€” and the world

03.03.2026 23:01 πŸ‘ 2 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0