The Democrats notched their second special state legislative election flip of the year on Tuesday when they flipped Arkansas's #HD70.
This Harris+2 seat in the northern Little Rock suburbs went to Democrat Alex Holladay by 15 points!
Popular local businessman
Montana's candidate filing closed today and I can officially say that Democratic State Representative Paul Tuss will NOT have a Republican opponent in #HD27.
That's a huge miss for the Republicans in a Trump+20 district, though Tuss is a strong incumbent
And here it is in chart form.
Don't let the amount of districts fool you, there's only 4 districts on here. But all four (LD-06, LD-15, LD-26, & LD-29) have ultra-competitive races for State Senate & State House.
Here are my first ratings for this year's state legislative ratings in Idaho!
The Idaho Democrats had a great candidate recruitment drive (the best in a long time for them) and are probably favored to gain seats to further escape their superminority.
Multiple Dems, but there's also a left-leaning Independent in University of Montana President Seth Bodnar. He's backed by Jon Tester
Big drama at Montana's candidate filing deadline! US Senator Steve Daines just dropped out at the last minute!
Shortly before he did, former US Attorney Kurt Alme filed to run. Seems like Daines is trying to anoint him as his successor
And here it is in chart form.
Also keep in mind that Nebraska legislative elections are technically nonpartisan, so we could get some weirdness in some districts because of that.
Here are my first ratings for this year's state legislative elections in Nebraska!
The Democrats only need to flip one seat in order to break the Republican supermajority and I think that's probably going to happen. They only need to flip one GOP-held seat in Omaha.
We be votin
COMING TONIGHT: My first sets of ratings for this year's state legislative elections in Idaho & Nebraska!
Will a pair of solidly Republican states west of the Mississippi give Democrats some gains in their state legislative elections this year?
What I believe to be final results in the Arkansas #HD70 (Harris+2) special election:
Alex Holladay (D)- 59.7%
Bo Renshaw (R)- 40.3%
Holladay flips this suburban Little Rock seat blue and outperforms Harris in this Trump-Harris district by 17 points!
Uh, all the precincts are reporting in the North Carolina #SD26 Republican primary and State Senate President Phil Berger is losing by TWO VOTES!
Sam Page- 50.00% (13,077)
Phil Berger (Inc)- 50.00% (13,075)
What appears to be final results in the Massachusetts #SD1stMiddlesex (Harris+11) special election:
Vanna Howard (D)- 58.3%
Sam Meas (R)- 23.1%
Joe Espinola (conservative-leaning Independent)- 18.6%
Solid overperformance in the Lowell area!
#NC04 is coming down to the wire!
Valerie Foushee (Inc)- 49.8%
Nida Allam- 47.7%
Mary Patterson- 2.5%
10 precincts left in Durham and 23 in Wake, both places where Allam is winning. She only needs to net 2,300 votes to take the lead
For those keeping track at home, Cuellar is only leading district-wide 53-41 over Villareal.
I think he'll hold on and win, but I think we've seen tonight that selling out to Trump just is not a recipe for success in a Democratic primary
bsky.app/profile/uncr...
Henry Cuellar actually LOST the early vote in Hidalgo County in #TX28:
Ricardo Villareal- 50.2%
Henry Cuellar (Inc)- 44.4%
Andrew Valentine- 5.4%
Just a terrible performance for the longtime incumbent
RACE CALL:
All three North Carolina Democrats (Shelly Willingham, Nasif Majeed, & Carla Cunningham) who voted to overturn Governor Josh Stein's vetoes have LOST their respective Democratic primaries
I'll post the final numbers when I can get them, but for now...
THE DEMOCRATS HAVE FLIPPED ARKANSAS'S #HD70 (Harris+2)
Looks like a pretty good-sized overperformance from 2024 too
Wray was the last Democrat left in the State House to vote for the Bathroom Bill when he lost re-election in 2024 by 34 votes.
Now he's only getting 34% of the vote
I think once all the incumbent conservadems in North Carolina were losing, it was pretty much a given that King Conservadem/former State Rep Michael Wray was going to lose his primary, but it's not even close in #HD27:
Rodney Pierce (Inc)- 66%
Michael Wray- 34%
BIG lead for Alex Holladay in the early vote in the Arkansas #HD70 (Harris+2) special election. Very much on track for a flip for the Dems here tonight in suburban Little Rock
If you remember, Berger pretty much gerrymandered out Don Davis in #NC01 in exchange for the Trump endorsement in this race.
Even with that quid pro quo, Berger's losing tonight
Over in North Carolina's #SD26, which has become one of the most expensive races in state history, State Senate President Phil Berger is currently LOSING his primary to Rockingham County Sheriff Sam Page:
Sam Page- 54.1%
Phil Berger (Inc)- 45.9%
This is just getting wild now, a THIRD Democrat who voted to overturn Governor Stein's vetoes (Shelly Willingham) is also trailing against a heavily underfunded opponent in #HD23:
Patricia Smith- 55.2%
Shelly Willingham (Inc)- 44.8%
bsky.app/profile/did:...
Another Dem who voted with Republicans to overturn Stein's vetoes was Nasif Majeed in #HD99. He's also trailing big in the early vote:
Valeria Levy- 64.9%
Nasif Majeed (Inc)- 29.1%
Tucker Neal- 6%
bsky.app/profile/uncr...
Woah, big result out of North Carolina's #HD106, where Democratic incumbent Carla Cunningham was running for re-election after constantly voting to overturn Governor Stein's vetoes:
Rodney Sadler- 74.7%
Carla Cunningham (Inc)- 18.3%
Just early vote right now though
Holy crap James Talarico won the Travis County (Austin) early vote by 53 points!
It's his home county, but jeez that's a nuclear bomb of votes
