Yup. That’s why the Labour Party, if it has any sense, starts thinking hard about it in 2023.
06.03.2026 22:31
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Yup. That’s why the Labour Party, if it has any sense, starts thinking hard about it in 2023.
I would have just not said this, but what do I know?
Step 1 is acknowledge that in a zero sum world everything is about the politics of distribution and stop pretending you can avoid this.
A chart of Brent crude oil showing the price spiking to above $90 per barrel.
Not great really.
Oh man we are HAVING A NEWS DAY I see
*BLACKROCK’S $26 BILLION PRIVATE CREDIT FUND LIMITS WITHDRAWALS
It's not just oil, the way. Fertilisers, and therefore food prices also in the firing line. www.ft.com/content/7efe...
The important bit.
www.wsj.com/business/ene...
The rates market deeply dislikes $90 oil
great chart by @raydouglas.bsky.social
Global bonds slump as Iran war upsets rate-cut bets
www.ft.com/content/d0b4...
HUGE payrolls miss, wow
Feb Payrolls -92k vs +55k est/+130k prev
2m net revision -69k
Unemplomyent 4.4% vs 4.3% est/4.3% prev
Avg hourly earn YoY +3.8% vs +3.7% est+/3.7% prev
Jan Retail sales MoM -0.2% vs -0.3% est/0.0% prev
Control group est MoM +0.3% vs+0.3% est/-0.1% prev
In that there is a missing zero?
I suspect that a fair few people will find it very hard to vote Labour for quite some time. www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2026...
Indeed. Fires are easier to start than put out.
Presumably there is a pain point at which Trump gets cold feet. This is more difficult than tariffs to switch off, however.
"For the most part, however, he appears blasé about the social costs of hierarchical currency arrangements — the unequal distribution of economic power and opportunity they entrench — even in those countries that enjoy currency dominance, to say nothing of those on the wrong end of it." 🔥💵
Gilts are taking what market technicians call a shin-kicking
On course for worst week since 2022 as rate cut hopes evaporate
"Gilts are suffering as the UK is seen as too prone to inflation, still," says one economist
www.ft.com/content/95d8...
Very good!
CO?
It would be a good idea to start contingency planning the fiscal policy response — which will become inevitable well before $150 per barrel — sooner rather than later.
Quite an opening paragraph.
Genuinely fascinating divergence.
Oil and energy market types: really beginning to freak out.
Global macro types: mostly relatively calm and expecting this to all blow over.
Odd. The question is probably best answered by historians and military types.
Shut down the whole clawd/molt thing imo. Too late already though.
i don’t think anyone is ready for the speed at which some poorly considered ai agent is going to be able to cause widespread damage
Have you tried the log burner yet?
Not an encouraging answer either
Agree -- attributing anything more than a marginal effect to Reeves' isn't plausible. The trend has been in place since 2022 -- which was when BoE started rate hikes and post-pandemic attempts at fiscal consolidation started.
Crucial point. Supply shocks require a fiscal not monetary response.
Can someone AI in a couple of stormtroopers behind her?
