Georgi Engelbrecht

lareviewofbooks.org/article/the-...

More challenges ahead in the Bangsamoro peace process as the Chairman of the Moro Islamic Liberation Front, and presumably the Central Committee, question the redistricting bill a few days ago.

The military regime that seized power in 2021, driving Myanmar into all-out civil war, has gained the upper hand after a period in which rebels looked ascendant. But the war is far from over. www.crisisgroup.org/visual-expla...

A reality by March 2026? (2) COTABATO CITY—Here in the heartland of the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region, several civil society friends and colleagues have asked questions on the confusing statements issued by the national

opinion.inquirer.net/188798/a-rea...

"We are seeing that some sectors in the regional government, especially the appointed ones, are setting their sights on an extended term until the next presidential election in 2028."

Special Episode: What Next for Venezuela? | International Crisis Group In this special episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard speaks with Crisis Group expert Phil Gunson about the U.S. military operation in Venezuela that led to the capture of President Nicolás Maduro, Pres...

“Trump had his own agenda, it was not the same agenda as the opposition leadership. So for many people this is going to mean a great deal of heart searching. They're going to have to acknowledge that Trump really is not working for them, he's working for himself.”
www.crisisgroup.org/united-state...

‘Everything is silent’: Caracas on edge in aftermath of US blitz Some suspected the attacks on Venezuela were coming, but the shock was still real and no one knows what will happen next

🇻🇪 “From what I’m seeing so far…this was an operation to remove Maduro from power – but it’s not regime change. The regime remains in power.”

@philgunson.bsky.social speaks to @theguardian.com on today’s unfolding events in Venezuela.

www.theguardian.com/world/2026/j...

Indonesia Launches First Domestically Built Arrowhead 140–Based Frigate - Naval News On 18 December, Indonesia named and launched its first domestically built Merah Putih (Red White)-class frigate, KRI Balaputradewa (322).

On 18 December, Indonesia named and launched its first domestically built Merah Putih-class frigate, KRI Balaputradewa (322). This marked a major milestone in the country’s naval modernisation and defence-industrial development 🇮🇩
By @fmalufti.bsky.social
www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2...

PH military press statement interestingly said they only monitored 50 local fighters.

Great aspirations? Examining Russia’s role in Southeast Asia A new book examines Russia's decade-long engagement with the region and finds more rhetoric than real influence.

“A new book examines Russia's decade-long engagement with the region and finds more rhetoric than real influence” Read Georgi Engelbrecht in The Interpreter.
https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/great-aspirations-examining-russia-s-role-southeast-asia

Sharing a short discussion paper in this monograph released by UP CIDS on navigating multiple contesting land claims under a peace deal. Nothing new for communities confronting these painful questions for decades, but one of the many difficult conversations needed. Download: lnkd.in/gQu5yhqR

Through the Tempest: The Philippines’ Defense Posture in Troubled Waters | International Crisis Group

✍️NEW OP-ED | The Philippines’ Defense Posture in Troubled Waters

To navigate today’s turbulent geopolitics, the country must speed up defense upgrades with greater resolve and redouble its diplomatic efforts, writes @duriandiaries.bsky.social.

www.crisisgroup.org/asia-pacific...

Looks like Pynchon is having a moment. #pynchon #lot49 #iykyk

Through the Tempest: The Philippines’ Defense Posture in Troubled Waters Domestic challenges threaten to derail the military’s efforts to upgrade its capabilities and reorient itself toward new strategic priorities.

thediplomat.com/2025/11/thro...

U.S. Unveils Philippine Task Force to Deter Chinese Coercion - USNI News This post has been updated with a statement from U.S. Pacific Fleet. American and Philippine defense secretaries unveiled a task force designed to deter Chinese coercion in the South China Sea and enh...

news.usni.org/2025/10/31/u...

"While the size and scope of Task Force Philippines is unclear, the initiative follows the previously established Task Force Ayungin."

Bangsamoro's regional government statement on the peace agreement signed 13 years ago.

🎊 30 years ago, @crisisgroup.org was born from the international community’s failure to prevent war in Bosnia.

Last weekend, we returned to Sarajevo - where it all began - for our board meeting, joined by every past president.

Here’s to the next 30 years of peacebuilding.

US, China to roll out tit-for-tat port fees, threatening more turmoil at sea The United States and China on Tuesday will begin charging additional port fees on ocean shipping firms that move everything from holiday toys to crude oil, making the high seas a key front in the trade war between the world's two largest economies.

US and China roll out tit-for-tat port fees, threatening more turmoil at sea – Reuters: ‘China said it had started to collect the special charges on U.S.-owned, operated, built, or flagged vessels but clarified that Chinese-built ships would be exempted from the levies.’

Today would have been Bangsamoro's first parliamentary election.

The polls, however, have been postponed.

I recorded this podcast a few week ago before this latest plot twist:

open.spotify.com/episode/12uS...

Riding Unruly Waves: The Philippines’ Military Modernisation Effort YouTube video by International Crisis Group

Watch the recording from the discussion about #Philippines #defence Modernisation & 🇵🇭 -🇺🇸 #alliance

www.youtube.com/watch?v=U9lq...

www.crisisgroup.org/how-we-work/...

ONLINE EVENT | Riding Unruly Waves: The Philippines’ Military Modernisation Effort

25 August | 8am Bangkok | 11am Canberra | 9pm Washington DC

Registration:

us06web.zoom.us/webinar/regi...

ONLINE EVENT | Riding Unruly Waves: The Philippines’ Military Modernisation Effort

25 August | 8am Bangkok | 11am Canberra | 9pm Washington DC

w/ Lindsey W. Ford, Rommel Jude Ong, @duriandiaries.bsky.social, and @le2huong.bsky.social.

Registration ⬇️

us06web.zoom.us/webinar/regi...

A good thread for anyone interested in Philippine geopolitics.

Riding Unruly Waves: The Philippines’ Military Modernisation Effort | International Crisis Group As they watch Beijing become more assertive in the South China Sea, Philippine leaders are adapting the country’s external defences while tending to partnerships with the U.S. and others. To manage th...

9. Read more in our @crisisgroup.org report on the Philippine defence modernisation:

www.crisisgroup.org/asia-pacific...

1. I have spent the last days in the Bangsamoro region in the southern Philippines.

But despite the ever-present security challenges and the complex peace process, another trend is evident: The re-orientation of the Armed Forces of the Philippines. 🧵

Asia’s Military Modernisation: A Special Series | International Crisis Group The rapidly changing global security environment is raising concerns in Asia, prompting increased military spending and policy shifts from a number of countries in the region. This series explores how...

10. And stay tuned for more deeply researched reports and analysis in our series:

www.crisisgroup.org/asia-pacific...

Riding Unruly Waves: The Philippines’ Military Modernisation Effort | International Crisis Group As they watch Beijing become more assertive in the South China Sea, Philippine leaders are adapting the country’s external defences while tending to partnerships with the U.S. and others. To manage th...

9. Read more in our @crisisgroup.org report on the Philippine defence modernisation:

www.crisisgroup.org/asia-pacific...

8. Lastly, deterrence needs to be complemented by diplomacy too.

Crisis management channels with Beijing remain important to navigate the unruly waves.

7. Funding, procurement procedures and the force structure remain other critical parts of the equation for modernisation.

Maximising defence partnerships, and working on the nuts and bolts of establishing a truly joint force, remain key tasks as well.

6. There are still gaps: It is not easy to develop a strategic culture that moves from land-based threat perceptions to a more maritime approach and a strategy that both looks at the South China Sea and the northern Philippines as critical theatres.

Asia in Flux: The U.S., China and the Search for a New Equilibrium | International Crisis Group The U.S. and China are reshaping the Indo-Pacific security architecture. As China rises, and the U.S. sends mixed messages about its intentions, Asian countries are beefing up their own militaries. Be...

5. Increasingly dangerous confrontations at sea risk more distrust and even armed conflict.

The recent events near the Scarborough Shoal are a case in point.

But also regionally, the Indo-Pacific security architecture is in flux:

www.crisisgroup.org/asia/north-e...