They were going to pass rules to phase out gas stoves, until they received 20,000 public comments against the regulations. Except, oops, it turns out the comments were generated by AI.
Some deep truths about the Cuban exile community. Beautiful essay.
www.equator.org/articles/the...
Our paper is out in PNAS.
www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/...
Tests for p-hacking can have low power; non-rejections do not indicate an absence of p-hacking. Just Accepted new paper by Graham Elliott, Nikolay Kudrin @NKudrin and Kaspar WΓΌthrich. zurl.co/EggwF
Reading this storyβabout how the Pentagon has been given so much extra money it's struggling to spend it allβwhile thinking about the formerly homeless tenants I've spoken with in recent weeks whose housing vouchers are being discontinued for "lack of funds."
This a great piece of investigative journalism. @rollingstone.com
This should be required reading for scientists and ethicists.
Ethics matter, especially in science.
www.rollingstone.com/politics/pol...
π¨Thrilled to share our new @nber.org WP.
Research and policy often assume teacher effectiveness is essentially fixed.
We revisit this question by studying what happens when high-performing teachers are incentivized to transfer to struggling schools.
π§΅
nber.org/papers/w34845
Holy moly this chart: Cumulative US measles cases
The research and data shop here at CDSS is #hiring for TWO data engineer positions that will be essential to the modernization of our data infrastructure. Help us spread the word!
πππ₯ππ«π²: $91,680 per year
ππ©π©π₯π² ππ²: Feb 6
ππ©π©π₯π² π‘ππ«π: calcareers.ca.gov/CalHrPublic/...
CA is obviously not perfect. We have a lot of work to do on a range of issues. But these things are what make me proud to work for CA.
Go check out our first paper with ODI here
hub.innovation.ca.gov/papers/bobra...
We'll hopefully have more written up about related work soon
Go bears
10/10
βPeople first" orientation
Tackling EBT theft is not just about saving a buck. It is about improving the experience of the people our programs serve. This is what guides our thinking when we have tough decisions to make.
9/10
Note: CDSS evaluated the targeted PIN resets in a randomized controlled trial to carefully monitor impacts on our clients before scaling the intervention - so we are pretty confident in attributing reductions in theft to that intervention.
State capacity includes capacity to test and learn!
8/10
Investments in "state capacity"
CDSS is in the middle of a once-in-a-generation modernization of its tech stack.
CA hired talented people at CDSS and ODI to not just to put that tech to work on EBT theft, but to expand our capacity to use data to solve problems and deliver better services.
7/10
βFirst in the nation" mentality
Folks in govt want to point to a precedent before doing something. CA leaders want to be the ones setting that precedent.
We were first to roll out chip/tap EBT cards and test targeted PIN resets
[we dont always succeed but it really IS a culture]
6/10
You can read a good high-level overview of a lot of what the state has done over the last few years to reduce theft by 83% since its peak in Jan 2024 here:
www.gov.ca.gov/2026/01/16/c...
But I want highlight what this response signals about the state I love and call home.
5/10
When I learned about this I was outraged.
Targeting the most vulnerable families and taxpayer dollars?
I took that shit personally.
So did a lot of people at the state, county govts, advocate orgs, law enforcement and our EBT vendor.
4/10
This created stress and precarity for tens of thousands of families each month.
We are lucky to live in a state that actually makes these families whole. Not all states reimburse stolen benefits!
But it takes a day or two - paperwork, investigation, etc - to get $ back.
3/10
The problem
The lowest-income families in our state would go to the bank at the beginning of the month to withdraw money for rent or try to pay for groceries and find out that their benefits have been stolen by organized crime rings.
They lift card info with skimming devices and clone them.
2/10
CA reduced EBT theft by 83% since Jan 2024:
www.kcra.com/article/cali...
A few reflections on this work
π§΅below
Disclaimer: This is my view as a private citizen though I work at CDSS and have been involved in the dept's response to theft for the last 3.5 yrs
1/10
Listen, I know the housing shortage is killing a great American city, but that really is one of our most historically significant Safeways www.sfchronicle.com/sf/article/s...
I am increasingly convinced the optimal number of laptops per child is 0 (or at least much lower than 1).
From the latest Journal of Public Economics issue:
doi.org/10.1016/j.jp...
AI dialogues shifted political support by 2 to 3 points in trials, eclipsing standard ads. Roughly one-third of this effect persisted for a month. However, models optimized for persuasion proved more factually error-prone.
#MLSky
striking that so many cities are seeing parallel homicide declines this year. i have no good explanation
jasher.substack.com/p/the-fbi-wi...
May write more about this at length in the future:
good causal inference training leads to better descriptive research
π§΅New paper out:
βBeyond Time: Unveiling the Invisible Burden of Mental Loadβ
with Barigozzi, Monfardini, Montinari, @elenapisanelli.bsky.social @svevav.bsky.social
π arxiv.org/abs/2505.11426
/1
Policy research folks take note - CPL's research is very influential in California state policy and this high-impact role will help expand that influence. Consider applying and share with your networks!
Fresh link for the job posting:
calcareers.ca.gov/CalHrPublic/...
One week until this job posting closes.
Do dope research, serve the great state of California.
Join us.
This is a great research team for those seeking to make impact within government.
An opportunity to join our fantastic research team at the California Department of Social Services!
