Win Monroe

Figure 4. Price changes in 2025 by country of origin This is a bar chart showing monthly 12-month percent changes in the country-specific Numerator Fisher Price Indices for January through December 2025. The y-axis shows percent values ranging from approximately -1 to 8.5 percent. The chart displays five variables: USA (blue bars), Canada (green bars), Mexico (yellow bars), China (purple bars), and Others (orange bars). The data reveals a pattern of increasing price changes throughout the year, particularly for China and the Others category. In January and February, most countries show modest changes between -0.5 and 1 percent, with some negative values. From March through July, price changes generally remain below 2.5 percent across all countries. Starting in August, China's price changes accelerate significantly, reaching approximately 5.7 percent, then continue climbing to peak at about 8.3 percent in December. The Others category follows a similar but less dramatic upward trend, reaching about 5.3 percent by December. USA, Canada, and Mexico maintain more moderate price changes throughout the year, typically staying below 2.5 percent. Note: 12-month percent changes in the country-specific Numerator Fisher Price Indices for January through December 2025. The key identifies bars in order from left to right. Source: Matched Numerator Panel Data and Label Insight Data, authors' calculations.

This #FEDSNote shows that price pressures developed gradually in 2025 rather than showing up as a one-time price spike and tariff effects have been greatest for goods imported from China with 8.5% year-over-year price increase by December 2025. www.federalreserve.gov/econres/note...

Kristi Noem to join Harvard Institute of Politics

A screenshot of an RStudio window. On the left-hand side is a new pain called Posit Assistant. The Posit Assistant had recently run code making a lat-lon plot of Washington state, colored by whether the point had been marked as forested or not.

Today we're releasing AI for RStudio. It's really, really good—I'd encourage you to point it at the messiest data sources you have and see what it can do.

www.simonpcouch.com/blog/2026-03...

In today's newsletter? Been slacking in my Levine reading...

Guys, the Italian unemployment rate has just fallen below the UK's.

I really don't see a problem with ECB/BoE cutting rates in response to a real income shock here - providing it persists. Demand picture was not overstrong coming into it and rates were already in broadly restrictive territory.

I mean, one is hardly a collection. Time to step up your game.

Who can reply: anyone, nobody, people who can be normal about it.

trying out a new feature, lmk if it works

Bonds are no port in this storm, as inflation fears intensify

“We are seeing bonds again failing to provide protection against risk-off events, even as gold delivers,” said one HF investor
www.ft.com/content/b4ad...

Super interesting research here on long term yields and the macroeconomics of housing.
sites.google.com/view/jadhaze...

No discipline, no foresight, no concept of chain of consequences, no capacity to plan, no settled idea of desired end state, just endless rolling crises precipitated by the centre. That’s all the analysis I have for this moment in history.

Speaking to the Guardian on the day before the byelection result, Mahmood urged her colleagues to acknowledge that the UK public had “legitimate grievances” about the unfairness of allowing people to arrive in small boats and the strain on public services from excessive immigration.

Compare and contrast Starmer calling Green's "extremists", "divisive" and "sectarian" with Mahmood repeating false Reform claims about "legitimate concerns" and "strain on public services". It isn't a choice between Reform and Labour when end result is the same.

www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2026...

Hello, police? I’d like to report a…

Where I ate in Copenhagen Five days in the frozen north

Trying something a little new for me - a list that’s openly uninformed. Here are a few places I really liked in Copenhagen, a city I’ve spent a grand total of five days in. I won’t claim to be an expert, but since I liked them, maybe you will too.

Starmer's ability to find the exact sweetspot which pisses off everyone is extraordinary. He's a savant.

Opinion | Crypto Is Pointless. Not Even the White House Can Fix That.

The fundamental issue with crypto is that the Blockchain is a solution in search of a problem. The Trump Admin has gone out of its way to help the industry write it's own rulebook, but this isn't enough. Crypto is out of excuses and may be out of time.

www.nytimes.com/2026/02/26/o...

Oof. I just read your post in the most uncharitable, pedantic way possible, and I gotta tell ya: it's not looking good for you.

Love the cyclist sailing through the middle of this mess. Very much “you guys carry on, I’ve got places to be.”

I don’t even really think this is fair. Iraq was heavily debated publicly, and there was a plan. It was a stupid and delusional plan based on unrealistic assumptions, but it was known publicly and voted on by Congress.

There was no public debate or Congressional authorization in this instance.

The most consistent thing about Starmer's Number 10 is that they make pretty much every decision as politically painful as possible.

A fascinatingly widespread belief is that “the city” is some kind of passing fad and not, you know, one of the oldest ways of settled living.

$NFLX stock +9.82% after the news

Cool dataviz from NYT on Trump tariffs www.nytimes.com/interactive/...

With the distance of a couple of years, I think we can say that in the wake of the pandemic, conventional macroeconomic policy could only deliver either a temporary period of high inflation, or a prolonged period of slow growth and high unemployment. With standard tools, there wasn't a third choice.

cant.stop.laughing

👀👀👀

Speech by Governor Waller on the economic outlook Thank you, Constance, and thank you for the opportunity to speak to you today. 1 Let me commend NABE for focusing this year's conference on economic disru

Fed governor Chris Waller conditions his support for a March cut (or hold) on the February payroll data due for release on March 6. “As things stand today, I rate these two possible outcomes as close to a coin flip.”

www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/s...

An excellent read from @dezernatzukunft.bsky.social
dezernatzukunft.org/en/europes-t...