@natesilver538x
Automatically reposting Nate Silver Tweets, DM if you are Nate and you want this account @NateSilver538 New Book, On The Edge, #5 NYT Bestseller! https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/529280/on-the-edge-by-nate-silver/
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Maybe it's just me — having not been a former Fox & Friends host, I'm not a strategy expert — but seems not super smart to win an election on inflation and then start a war that causes oil prices to spike by 50% within like four days.
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On top of the -92K this month, also -69K in downward revisions from December and January. Pretty bad, I'd say.
https://nitter.net/TheStalwart/status/2029912481888358427
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Honestly a Consumer Reports style panel of power users might be better than METR etc. for measuring AI progress, much more robust to spikiness. Not meant to sound skeptical, as a power user I think there's been extremely noticeable progress over the past few months fwiw.
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Republican primary draft results with @ClareMalone and @galendruke. 1. Vance 2. Rubio 3. Shit, this is already hard.
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Gut reaction from podcast comedians >> Kamala Harris' carefully considered political choices
https://nitter.net/keithedwards/status/2009383149248094603
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Trump's actions toward Iran aren't popular, and doing unpopular things isn't a good strategy to distract from other unpopular things. It only makes everything seem more chaotic. Not much of what Trump's doing is working right now.
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Democrats don't have a lot of good candidates in Montana either, though there's a Tester-endorsed independent who could be kinda interesting.
https://nitter.net/Taniel/status/2029429292833337810
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I don't really get the resistance lib media critic line that "the media should be covering Epstein instead of Iran". Like for one thing it's a fucking war. For another, there's already lots of Epstein coverage and voters can keep track of more than one thing at the same time.
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Lots of thoughts about Texas. 1. A very mixed night for prediction markets. They were very confident about Talarico, which looks great. But also very (over)confident on Paxton. Overall, the media treated Cornyn's decent showing as more of a surprise than it was based on polls.
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2. Was Crockett more progressive and Talairco more moderate? Actually, that's not so clear! But there is a difference: she was much, much more *partisan* than he was.
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In the final few years of these, forget which airline, there was a 5-page profile of Saskatoon, Saskatchewan at one point, I think they literally ran out of cities after that.
https://nitter.net/conorjrogers/status/2028676942493606058
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They're not mutually exclusive but when you encounter bad behavior online, it's useful to distinguish people who are 1) extremely thirsty for attention; 2) extremely partisan; 3) literally insane and/or sociopathic. You get all 3 together and it's basically the Dark Triad.
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And, taking down Iranian regime is not going to help lower costs in the U.S. - which is the #1 priority for most voters.
https://nitter.net/natesilver538/status/2028536285619798460
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I do think Iran presents some particular downside risks for Trump: 1. Oil price spikes 2. Foreign adventurism = backtracking from implicit and explicit campaign promises 3. Partnering with Israel makes the domestic politics more complicated (also for Dems, to be fair)
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The old conventional wisdom: Wars produce initial spikes in presidential approval ratings, followed by crashes once they inevitably turn into quagmires. The new CW: lol, nothing matters, because wars feel functionally more distant from Americans than ever.
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Still, I don't think you're going to learn much from some snap YouGov or Ipsos polling or whatever. I think that's missing the forest for the trees. Trying to take a longer lens in today's newsletter:
https://www.natesilver.net/p/iran-war-trump-public-opinion
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