Charlie the Fox

The legacy of this war will be hundreds of murdered children and absolutely no benefit for the survivors.

The reason Iranian officials are all so confident in statements and interviews isn't because they've got some clever trick up their sleeves. It's because they know the regime can survive this attack, and looking strong now will put them in a better position later.

I'm not great at strategy, but I understand that it's important to work out what "winning" looks like, and what actions & conditions are needed for that, before you start. If you want regime change, you need boots on the ground. They don't have to be your boots, but someone's boots have to be there.

🧵 It’s easy to say “this company turned data over to the cops, we can’t trust them.” But the unfortunate truth is that ANY COMPANY will turn over data to cops under the right legal pressure. Switzerland has a legal assistance treaty with the US. Proton has to comply with Swiss law.

If you must pay for a Proton account for a radical project, pay with cash (you can mail it) or washed crypto (Monero -> Bitcoin).

All credit card payments are traceable, even to a privacy-focused company.

Your security model should not rely on a business to fight the state on your behalf.

The four key points PJAK requested from the people are:
👇

Gerîla_Name Reng, Deng û Awazên Gerîlayên Azadiya Kurdistanê

I saw it first on t.me/gerilaname1, which posts all of the movement statements.

If my translation is correct, they're also confirming reports that Iranian forces are using schools and mosques to hide from the bombing. They're urging people to stay away from these places, because the US and Israel are likely to bomb them.

I feel they're responding to both a need (state services collapsing) and an opportunity (state security collapsing), and are hoping that society can step into these vacuums.

PJAK have just released a statement calling for the establishment of communes to replace the state in Rojhelat (Eastern/Iranian-Occupied Kurdistan). They haven't called for attacks on regime forces, but have said defense committees will be needed to resist state attacks on the communes.

Sadly it turns out there are currently four Komalas, ruining my excellent "2 out of 3 ain't bad" joke.

Graphic showing the names and logos of the members of the CPFIK, which are Khabat, Komala, PJAK, PDKI, PAK, and a second, identical, Komala.

A second Komala has joined the Coalition of Political Forces of Iranian Kurdistan.

Urgent warning to residents of southern Lebanon: Hezbollah’s terrorist activities are forcing the Defense Army to act against it with force. The Defense Army does not intend to harm you. For your safety, you must evacuate your homes immediately. Anyone who is near Hezbollah members, its facilities, or its weapons puts his life at risk. Any house used by Hezbollah for military purposes may become a target. To the residents of southern Lebanon, you must go right away to the north side of the Litani River to ensure your safety—evacuate your homes immediately and move northward beyond the Litani River. Be aware that any movement southward will endanger your lives.

Quick translation of the IDF statement ordering all of south Lebanon's population to immediately leave.

Keep in mind that Israel has never stopped bombing south Lebanon since the 'ceasefire.' They are now taking the next step to destroy as much of the country as they can.

They've got all the major groups to join, so they should have broad support and legitimacy. The big test will be if they can hold together once they hold territory and have to decide how to administer it.

a poster - 'anti Immigration raid training, because there are ICE in Bristol too' weds 11th March, central Quaker Meeting House, 7pm - 8pm illustration of people standing in a crowd, one is blowing a whistle

Bristol, UK

What To Do When Immigration Enforcement Show Up
Weds 11th March
7pm-8pm
Central Quaker Meeting House

ICE are operating on a weekly basis in Bristol. This training gives you the tactics you can use and the rights you can share if you see someone being stopped.

Islamophobes out of Bristol!

Saturday 7th March – 10am at the Cenotaph 🏴🚩

#AntifascistInfo #Antifascist #Antifa #Bristol #Antifascism

The strategy of "remove all barriers and hope" is probably viable, but it's far from the most effective use of either bombs or local partners.

In a lot of previous foreign interventions, weapons provided by the US have ended up being used against the US. The Raqqa campaign showed that not giving out weapons and relying on air support was a viable alternative. But the air support does need to be coordinated.

Netanyahu's statements confirm my suspicion that part of the US/Israel strategy in Iran is to destroy security infrastructure in the Kurdish regions so that Kurdish armed groups can take over. The trouble is that they don't seem to have actually spoken to any of the Kurdish groups about this.

Someone near where I'm staying likes to go outside a couple of times a day and briefly use a tool that sounds almost exactly like a small drone catching a sudden crosswind, and I'd quite like them to stop.

Also he seems to think Khamenei was behind the attempts to kill him?

I think Trump's statement about using the "Venezuela model" of leaving the state intact can be safely classified as clueless ramblings, given his military's ongoing efforts to completely destroy Iranian state infrastructure.

I'll be very surprised if the US or Israel has any plans in place to actually support any uprisings against the regime, beyond letting the CIA fund local terrorists and hoping it all works out.

My guess is that this phase of the war will continue until Iran runs out of missiles and the US and Israel run out of targets, and the next stage will be determined by whether the Iranian regime can keep enough important people alive to keep governing after that.

Despite all of the US talk of "off ramps", and keeping options on the table, killing Khamenei in the first round of strikes has pretty much locked in wider escalation and attempted regime change.

🔵The January 29 agreement between the Syrian Democratic Forces and the Interim Government enters its second month, after achieving initial steps that included security redeployment and the start of a limited integration of institutions, in contrast to the absence of any signs of movement within key provisions, most notably the integration of military forces, the return of displaced persons and the end of the siege imposed on Kobani

🟠Latest agreement between SDF and the government enters its second month

🌐More (hawarnews.com/en/latest-ag...)

🔔 HAWAR NEWS AGENCY #ANHA

Mind you, I thought that about the last one too.

Staying visible and relevant does help ISIS in the long run, and they'll probably gain some support among the current discontent. But I don't think they're going to have a big resurgence unless the regime collapses, and I don't think that will happen any time soon.

The current spate of ISIS attacks probably don't pose a threat to the Syrian regime. They're very visible and generating media attention, which is probably their main goal, but I doubt they'll achieve much else. The regime can afford to lose a few dozen soldiers on checkpoints.

Thank you, but I will not be "transitioning from negativity to positivity" today.