The (Curtis) Jones Act
12.03.2026 16:35
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The (Curtis) Jones Act
Jonesing
Hang on maybe we're going about this all wrong. Maybe we all drive over there to fill up
IEA: 10mn b/d of crude/condy/NGLs now shut-in by the war. Sees world capable of replacing around 500,000 b/d in the short-term.
www.argusmedia.com/en/news-and-...
Goldman: likely that daily oil prices would exceed the 2008 peak* if Hormuz flows were to remain depressed through March.
* $147/bl, fact fans
No oil leaving Iraq from the north or the south. Oil receipts are >90% of Iraqi government revenues
Iraq confirms two tankers were hit off Basrah and the oil terminals there are now closed
www.argusmedia.com/en/news-and-...
Overnight, Trump authorised a 172mn bl drawdown of crude from the US SPR over the next 4 months. Tweeter Wright said will be replaced "within the next year" at no cost to taxpayers, no comment about what mechanism it will use to do this.
www.argusmedia.com/en/news-and-...
More on the IEA stocks release, UK chipping in
www.argusmedia.com/en/news-and-...
that in no way accounts for regional disparity. 32 separate iterations of this IEA release mean it will be very hard to track what's what
back of the envelope - crude production shut-ins are around 6.5mn b/d, so 400mn bl alleviates two months of disruption.
Update on the IEA stocks release, which dwarfs its previous largest. unanimous decision by the 32 members, no mention of crude/product mix, timeframe up to each member
www.argusmedia.com/en/news-and-...
The IEA today said it will make 400mn bl of oil from emergency reserves available to the market.
www.argusmedia.com/en/news-and-...
IEA's Birol to speak at the top of this hour
Denial? Head in the sand? Sensible corrective to the panic of the past 10 days? All of the above? Opec's MOMR make no mention of the war even though four of its biggest members are cutting or shutting in production.
Lates Opec monthly oil market report: nothing to see here
www.argusmedia.com/en/news-and-...
Barclays: $125/bl
Rystad: $135/bl
Iranian military HQ: $200/bl
Important question. I say no, but some of those with his ear are, and some of those are all in on the Gog-and-Magog element of this war. And they'll be whispering that this is the way out, the win. And he always acts on the last thing he hears
Re-upping yesterday's news of marine fuel prices doubling in a single day at Cape Town with today's news of the probable short-term end, and possible all-time end, of HSFO availability at Fujairah. All bodes ill for east-west trade
www.argusmedia.com/en/news-and-...
Now, a major issue here is that the state of USN mine countermeasure capabilities is... not good. As you might have seen, the last of the old Avenger-class was shipped out of the Gulf in *January*. Something which once again is very much on brand for the complete lack of long-term planning by Trump.
Brent crude up 5% so far today, after dropping by 12% yesterday. Can't remember what happened on Monday. Possibly nothing. Maybe the day just didn't exist.
5/ And on the Strait of Hormuz, they had NO PLAN. I can't go into more detail about how Iran gums up the Strait, but suffice it say, right now, they don't know how to get it safely back open.
Which is unforgiveable, because this part of the disaster was 100% foreseeable.
White House confirms Chris Wright was just wrong on the Hormuz escort thing
www.argusmedia.com/en/news-and-...
Bad news if, say, you're sailing around that way to avoid the Houthi threat and need to fill up
War ripples spreading. Price of marine fuel in Cape Town doubled today.
www.argusmedia.com/en/news-and-...
tweet in haste, repent at leisure. Ever thus for deadbeats
www.argusmedia.com/en/news-and-...
Too many headlines
