"Christmas is over"
- My neighbor
24.12.2025 02:02
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"Christmas is over"
- My neighbor
Markets have recovered much of the overnight decline but still appear poised to start the day lower.
Was at a mall and heard a couple behind me complain that the Halloween stuff isn’t out yet.
Why? Because it enables huge tax deferred contributions via Section 351.
www.bloomberg.com/news/feature...
Potentially bigger than you think: SEC approves in-kind redemptions.
Brooklyn Banks today reminded me that skateboarders were the first creators.
Haven't heard this level of reverence directed at the QSR since Harold and Kumar.
Trey Yingst on Fox: “Everyone move.”
Each path shapes incentives, control, and the source of long-term advantage.
The distinction matters because it defines how a platform grows and competes. Customer-led platforms build on trust and insight, drawing demand through tailored value. Technology-led platforms scale by pushing product excellence, controlling quality and standards.
AI founder are the opposite- they start from knowing the technology really well and working towards the customer problem.
This was really good from Eric Vishria at Benchmark:
SaaS founders knew the founder/problem really well.
Tiktok finfluencers. And strangely, my dad.
CNBC wouldn't have to exist if everyone who came on had the same definition / understand of what inflation is.
At least the Robot-Biden White House didn’t have the Treasury Secretary in fisticuffs. 🤡
@washingtonpost.com
www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202...
Imagine if Musk bought puts before he sent each tweet.
The container port slowdown is REAL.
We talked to Gene Seroka, the Executive Director of the Port of Los Angeles podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/l...
But still plenty of room for volatility traders to have fun.
US futures indicate a strong open due to trade optimism, with the Nasdaq leading gains.
Treasury yields are rising, while gold is declining. Crude oil is trading higher alongside equities.
While service economies are not entirely immune, their broader base in essential and adaptable services provides greater overall stability during economic downturns.
PSA: Manufacturing-based economies are generally more susceptible to recessions than service-based economies due to greater sensitivity to demand shocks and cyclical investment patterns.
Business Trends to Watch:
•Normalizing credit quality (esp. CRE, office, low FICO, C&I)
•Deposit betas and Net Interest Margins (NIMs)
•Loan growth, particularly C&I loans
•Capital markets activity
•Share repurchase programs guidance
CDX opened on a firmer tone and held in well throughout the session, continuing the strength seen yesterday despite some late profit taking.
Dealers are still tilted toward negative gamma, hinting at higher volatility.
Despite this, there’s a more favorable positioning than the gamma curve suggests.
Unemployment Worsens:
Unemployment Rate: Increased to 4.14% (from 4.01%).
Real Unemployment (U-6): Up to 8.0% (from 7.5%).
Labor Force Participation: Declined to 62.44% (from 62.62%).
Market Shifts Toward Growth Scare & Risk Hedging
• Increased demand for downside protection via put options and VIX call buying.
• Volatility term structure flattened as markets hedge against economic uncertainty.
• Swaptions reflect a “Growth Scare Accident” risk, indicating a shift in sentiment.
Core PCE inflation slowed to +2.65% Y/Y in January, approaching the Fed’s target.
U.S. Personal Income rose for the 40th straight month, but spending fell for the first time in nearly two years.
• GDP forecasts revised downward (~2% from ~3% over the past two years)
• Market sentiment shifting toward concerns about economic deceleration
