This Wk's Top 3| The debate over funding the FY26 Supplemental, the House Majority again demonstrates it doesn't know what "fiscally responsible" means & the competing LNG import projects. #akleg T'row, 6:05a on the Michael Dukes Show at buff.ly/24qFXZQ
This Week's Column| SFIN is proposing to change the percent-of-market-value draw rate. In this week's column, we discuss the modifications that are needed to better protect both future generations and the PFD. #akleg
The 8:30a Chart| To provide context to current $$oil, we publish daily (ex-Su) a running avg of FY26-32 $$ANS, Brent & WTI actual+futures. Projected ANS v. SPRING26 rev F'cast:
> FY26 ⬆️ $3 (+$118mil UGF)
> FY27 ⬆️ $9 (+$354mil)
> FY28-32 ⬆️ $2 (avg annual +$70mil)
#akleg
I'm not a big fan of Substack as an organization, but there are good newsletters on there, including by author Heather Lende: heatherlende.substack.com/p/a-good-sto... #akleg #Alaska
Let's be clear. Those pushing to use PFD cuts to fund govt are advocating to ECONOMICALLY HARM 80% OF #AKFAMS (take more from their pockets than any other revenue option). #akleg #useless
Sometimes things are less than they appear — Alaska's division of legislative audit put out an RFP for marketing and media relations ... it's mainly just for a new website: aws.state.ak.us/OnlinePublic... #akleg #Alaska
If you want the inside baseball on what's happening in the Alaska Capitol right now, here's the latest. #akleg #Alaska
This is a great example of how we got into this mess.the Republican Party is full of these immoral opportunists who see sucking up to Trump’s worst instincts as a shortcut to career advancement. #akleg www.dermotcole.com/reportingfro...
🧵 The Senate Finance Committee is underway with a hearing on the Spring Revenue Forecast. It was released two weeks into the Iran war, leaving analysts with what Chief Economist Stickel says was "one of the more interesting" forecasts.
📺: www.ktoo.org/video/gavel/...
#akleg
The House and Senate are in session this morning. Keep an eye out for a possible second vote on the supplemental budget and corresponding CBR draw in the House this week. #akleg
If you missed this weekend's Anchorage Delegation Town Hall, you can review the live stream here!
#akleg
If this article could have two headlines, it would — Begich is also on pace to have the most productive freshman term of any member of Congress since 1973, when modern recordkeeping began.
Begich has passed six prime-sponsored bills through the House and Senate, tying the record. #akleg #Alaka
The 8:35a Chart| Given the importance of Permanent Fund returns to #AKrev levels, we have developed a second morning chart focusing on S&P 500 5-, 3- & 1-yr returns v the PFC's. #akleg
* 5-yr: S&P 10.96% v PFC 8.04%
* 3-yr: S&P 19.82% v PFC 8.94%
* 1-yr: S&P 20.12% v PFC 12.43%
Protesters against the Iran war hold signs during a snowstorm in Juneau, Alaska
Foot of snow? No problem for the Juneau chapter of Veterans for Peace, which is holding a sign-waving protest this morning. #akleg #Alaska
The Monday Chart| To put Alaska's in-state gas prices in global context, once wkly we compare Enstar's current Gas Cost Adjustment v. global markers. 2025-26 Enstar price is 8% ⬇️ Asia, 175% ⬆️ L48. 5yr forward avg, Enstar 5% ⬆️ Asia, 182% ⬆️ L48. #akleg
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This is a f’g mess. It doesn’t matter if we balance the budget this year because Trump started a war. It will not solve the revenue problem. It’s just a forecast. I’m sure MAGA Republicans have no problem destroying the construction season over this either. #akleg
On this week's Sunday Story:
Unpacking school accountability.
In '22, social science researchers conducted a systematic review of existing research on school accountability. (1/🧵)
#akleg #education
#akleg This is an important op-ed that points out that Alaska has a very high rate of removing children from families when one of the major reasons is the family's poverty. Every Alaskan that cares about the failing foster care system should read it!
This Wk's Top 3 P'cast| SB 274 applies the wrong lesson, why the Iran operation isn't changing #AKLNG's market dynamics & why the #akleg should ignore the Spring F'cast and use the 10-year average oil price instead.
This Week's Column| SFIN is proposing to change the percent-of-market-value draw rate. In this week's column, we discuss the modifications that are needed to better protect both future generations and the PFD. #akleg
I’m disgusted with Acting AG Stephen J Cox. The persecution of this family is in the name of a MAGA culture war. They should not be prosecuted and Acting AG Cox should not be confirmed by the #akleg. Please write and call them to not confirm Cox in the name Miliama Suli, RIP 🙏
www.akleg.gov/poms/
Monthly, we review indices of Alaska income. Overall, growth in personal consumption expenditures since 2017 has outpaced growth in personal income. Using regressive PFD cuts over the period to fund govt has had an even greater adverse impact on middle-income #AKfams. #akleg
The Sunday Financial Charts| To help better understand the overall financial environment, weekly we track current + projected inflation & interest rates. #akleg
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The Sunday Chart| To help assess the ANS market, wkly we review the status of the ANS tanker fleet. Notes: 1 ret'n from Asia. #akleg
* Deliveries month to date: 9.3
* Not in ANS service: 1
* Asia: 1
* USWC: 11 (5 CP, 3 HIL, 2 XOM, 1 MPC) in runs
The USGS has raised the alert level at the volcanic complex near Alaska's second-most-western community. Still only a watch, but something to know: volcanoes.usgs.gov/hans-public/... #akleg
The Rolling 4-Wk Avgs| To provide perspective on $$ANS trends as well as the relationship b/w ANS & other reference prices, wkly we chart the 4-wk avg & differentials. Current ANS 4-wk avg $80, ahead of both Brent (+$.02) and Brent/WTI avg ($2.57). #akleg
This Wk's Top 3 P'cast| SB 274 applies the wrong lesson, why the Iran operation isn't changing #AKLNG's market dynamics & why the #akleg should ignore the Spring F'cast and use the 10-year average oil price instead.
This Week's Column| SFIN is proposing to change the percent-of-market-value draw rate. In this week's column, we discuss the modifications that are needed to better protect both future generations and the PFD. #akleg
Even though the Interior Delegation of state legislators remain sequestered in Juneau for the session we still watch those thermometers at home! Rep. Stapp and I will be back to host a town hall at the Fairbanks LIO. Look for announcements. 🌡 🥶 #akleg
