Christian Spence

The world-beating, never to be surpassed, visual definition of fragile masculinity.

Was thinking this earlier today. I'd managed to trace it back to the Lyons' Review in 2008, but it turns out the wheels move even more slowly than I thought.

News: "Trump applies tariffs to US imports."
Economists: "That's really daft."
UK Govt: "Sure is. That's why we're going to tax our exports instead."
Economists: "..."

a green frog is standing in front of a red curtain with the words `` brace '' written above it . ALT: a green frog is standing in front of a red curtain with the words `` brace '' written above it .

Aah, Budget week.

Super interesting (and technical!) blog on bond markets and budget reaction. One thing not mentioned is US markets will be shutting down on Budget Day ready for Thanksgiving.

With a desire to manage closing positions and much less liquidity in global markets the day after, movements could be large.

This is a good piece. One thing particularly leapt out for me:

"Assumes a sharp distinction with delivery: policy is mainly central, elite; delivery is mainly local, frontline — admirable but lower."

The huge disconnect between ideas and delivery is a big problem. "Logistics trumps strategy" etc.

👀

The behavioural incentives mount when marginal tax rates are 42% (40% IT, 2% NI); not too much of an issue when few were in scope. This far down the distribution, many people will hit this for some period of working life. Add in student UG loan and for many it's 51%. 40% of London FT workers caught.

The OBR hath given: +£10bn of headroom. Putting aside the fact the OBR may taketh away in a future year, the govt has already paid its political costs for tax rises. It will be judged in 2029 on whether the country is better. It is more likely to be better with cash. Why not just take the "win"?

Just catching up on this (excellent) podcast. It points out (amongst lots of things - go listen!) something which I really hadn't realised.

The Budget is scheduled for the day before Thanksgiving. That means the bond markets are going to be seriously short on liquidity the day after.

Quite. I think something the UK should be really nervous about is that a government winning a general election with a majority (which in UK constitution basically gives you monarchical powers) has been unable to govern with competence not only in 2024, but also 2019 and 2015. This is a problem.

"For too long, Britain has been held back by governments that, because they lack a relentless focus on long-term ends, are buffeted about by events."

Kier Starmer, Labour Manifesto 2024

Give Me More Time Wednesday Addams GIF ALT: Give Me More Time Wednesday Addams GIF

Apologies to all my clients who I'm delivering post-Budget presentations to this year, but we're going to need a considerably longer slot.

Exactly the reaction that you* would have expected.

*Everyone except the Government

bsky.app/profile/toma...

Does the government have enough planning skill to both think this up and pull it off?

Anyway, even if so, it only helps you *now*. The real problem still exists.

🤷‍♂️😬🤯

One can't help but wonder if anyone in HMT has ever heard of the idea of tax morale. You might find it easier to raise more revenue if it's somewhat higher.

Well, we've not seen barbed wire barricades on the A580 for a while, so things can't be that bad 😂

I think there's some grounds for optimism on the (CA) mayors on this, see Burnham-Rotherham in particular. I think the danger here is this relies really very heavily on personal relationships rather than institutions. Changes of person and party in this could easily blow this away.

And that would never do!

Exactly this. Just because there isn't a simple solution that allows you to maintain all of your political priors and not annoy anyone, doesn't mean that there isn't a more complex answer that will work but you haven't got the political nous to actually deliver it. Complex doesn't mean unknown.

Income tax and national insurance unlikely to rise - as Sky News obtains definition of 'working people' Reeves is unlikely to hike these taxes because the Treasury says those earning £45,000 or less qualify as "working people".

Link to Sky News story: news.sky.com/story/income...

Budget chatter reverberates everywhere ("will she, won't she, we don't know"), but this, reported by Sky News, is intriguing.

'Rachel Reeves is unlikely to hike these taxes because the Treasury says those earning £45,000 or less qualify as "working people".'

Higher rate threshold to come down?

Looking forward to this. One reason why I'm dubious about killing NI and switching it onto IT (both IFS and Mirrlees Review say we should) is that the UK has never had a proper debate about a contributory benefits system, particularly around the issue of tax morale.

This week I have mostly been reading ... @theifs.bsky.social 1978 Meade Report: The Structure and Reform of Direct Taxation.

Deloitte UK’s revenues fall for first time in 15 years but partners’ pay rises Cost-cutting drive helps shield profits at Big Four firm

As David Hume might have said, "Empires may rise and fall; liberty and slavery succeed alternately; ignorance and knowledge give place to each other; but profit per partner will still remain, and will never be affected by the revolutions of human society."

www.ft.com/content/d3aa...

Hadn't realised that Grimshaw had died, and now Farrell, too. Fascinating architectural practice. Plans for an FT obit?

And, as someone who has both a passport and driving licence, I'm conscious that it was a lot easier for me than for someone who has only one, or neither, of the above. Add to that HMRC logins, Council Tax registration, electoral roll, voting ID requirements, etc., and an official ID may make sense.

I feel that the argument for digital ID cards could be more easily won if government focused on how they can strengthen the citizen against the state. As someone who's in the process of moving house, having to do five separate ID checks (and being charged for some of them) has been a real pain.

Thanks for posting this yesterday. Had a very enjoyable evening with it. Very much of a "they don't make 'em like that anymore" period.

Now have The Bedford Incident lined up for tonight.