Nuño Sempere

If I was dictator of America, why *couldn't* I increase GDP 2x by 2029?

Previously you could trust and install a random github repository, but this changes as people can create malicious repositories at scale <https://www.reddit.com/r/netsec/comments/1r66u2r/analysis_massive_active_github_malware_campaign/> :(

Global risks this week

Make list of fundamental human needs and invest in things which are complements to intelligence.

Make list of fundamental human needs and invest in things which are complements to intelligence.

AI foids and moids may just charismamaxx and outmog normies in the SMP

Yep! In particular it's correlated with teh EA community or EU/US, which I feel somewhat fondly about

The thing about shying away from harsh truths is that eventually you might get outlapped by those who don't, and the equilibrium where this doesn't happen seems fragile. This worries me.

Re: the Washington post Subscriptions of about 150 usd, 2.5M subscribers = 375M in revenues If the paper is losing 100M expenses are 475M. Cutting 1/3rd of the cost brings cost to 316M, in line with revenues

Talked with a friend who had had worked on a really cool project last year and is now feeling less excited by his more normal one now. Interesting shade of grief.

Less likely for Vance to win in 2028, more likely for executive and courts to confront each other more aggressively

Example output

Vibecoded some simulation software this morning, thought it was neat.

You can see the repo here: <https://github.com/NunoSempere/who-does-what>

Yep. but also we may never know. From past experience and thinking activists are hugely incentivized to go with the higher numbers, but there was some convincing article by the NYT on this so shrug

Smart people are better at convincing and principled rationalizations. Sad to see in others because I recognize the impulse in myself.

So do you all use your kin groups and extended families skillfully? I feel like I should be giving my father stock tips but actually he is much better at investing than I.

Reading Maslow's Motivation and Personality. Just the preface already has a whole lot of worthy stances about human nature that are not shared these days. Would recommend

Steven Miller is jewish! What a plot twist

Said by a friend: \\\"Sure, we have a Jewish state, so maybe you can have an Islamic State, but man do we like the Jewish state much more than the Islamic State.\"

Said by a friend: \\"Sure, we have a Jewish state, so maybe you can have an Islamic State, but man do we like the Jewish state much more than the Islamic State."

Paraguay is such a fun playground, because things cost 10x less than in the US. So I can e.g., build a restaurant for 10k, hire a developer for 3k/month, rent an apartment for 500/month, buy an apartment for 60k. It feels like I am getting training data faster.

my legitimate defense firms, your suspicious weapons manufacturers, their sanctioned arms dealers

Uniquely rich people and institutions delegate decisions to underlyings who have uniquely high transaction costs, in a way that leads to them asking for me to work for free. Funny the first few times but annoying once I spot the pattern.

hehehe, if you implicitly trust Claude you are sampling from the implicitly trustworthy region of responses

Whoahoho! Trying this from the command line. If I combine being able to just speak out tweets with being able to do so from the command line, so that I don't get distracted by the Twitter frontend, I will be unstoppable. https://x.com/NunoSempere/status/1999283419545764111

As the UK stopped being a global superpower James Bond just became a quaint relic and got replaced with Mission Impossible. Curious to see what comes next.

Some people really really want particular threat models in AI to be right, so they kind of bend evidence to fit their notions. Seems dangerous, unwise.

Oral arguments on Trump tariffs at SCOTUS are actually pretty engaging to read: <https://www.supremecourt.gov/oral_arguments/argument_transcripts/2025/24-1287_097c.pdf>

Ah, but does the "constitutionally ineligible" in the 12th ammendment (constitution.congress.gov/constitution...) refer to constitutional ineligibility at the time the 12th ammendment was signed, or does it also include the 22nd ammendement?

Forecaster estimates of a 3rd Trump term—Trump is a funny guy