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Thomas House

@tah-sci.com

Professor of Mathematical Sciences, working mainly on epidemiology although partial to a bit of non-commutative algebra, social science and basic biology. https://personalpages.manchester.ac.uk/staff/thomas.house/about.html

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Latest posts by Thomas House @tah-sci.com

As for Blur, Graham Coxon is a genuinely brilliant musician, one of the few associated with Britpop who could really play, and they had a great knack for a pop hook when they weren't trying to be too clever.

youtube.com/watch?v=YSgh...

06.03.2026 20:50 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
Oasis - Up In The Sky (Official Lyric Video)
Oasis - Up In The Sky (Official Lyric Video) YouTube video by OasisVEVO

Generally Oasis were at their best blasting out bombastic doggerel.

www.youtube.com/watch?v=wKkg...

06.03.2026 20:47 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

As I recall it the country was mainly split into people who couldn't care less about Blur vs. Oasis and people who didn't give a crap. Both produced the occasional brilliant song and a moderate amount of dross.

06.03.2026 20:38 πŸ‘ 5 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0
Preview
Your Poop Is Not Reliable, At Least for Now Let’s say you mail your poop to two different companiesβ€”not an illegal act, by the way, provided it doesn’t smell or soil anything, and that it’s packaged and labelled appropriately. It also helps if ...

Those gut microbiome kits you pay good money for may as well be a ticket to see your local fortune teller.

Seven different companies; a standardized poop sample; and results that are all over the place.

My latest for @mcgilloss.bsky.social.

www.mcgill.ca/oss/article/...

06.03.2026 19:27 πŸ‘ 21 πŸ” 13 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 1

So I don't think Arabic has imported the word "fresh", but a shop with proper name containing "fresh" gets transliterated. I think French does tend to resist this as well (which I personally like, cultural diversity is good etc.).

06.03.2026 16:23 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

I agree, it's very odd! But it seems common, I cycle past a shop that uses "فرش" to transliterate "fresh" rather than "طازج" or an actual Arabic word for freshness.

06.03.2026 16:20 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

I read Arabic script and this kind of thing is incredibly common. My view is that French is unusual in trying to go beyond transliteration - most languages import enormous amounts of vocabulary from English (the modern Arabic for "doctor" is now "doctor" etc.).

bsky.app/profile/tah-...

06.03.2026 16:06 πŸ‘ 2 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0
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A medical journal says the case reports it has published for 25 years are, in fact, fiction A Canadian journal has issued corrections on 138 case reports it published over the last 25 years to add a disclaimer: The cases described are fictional. Paediatrics & Child Health, the journal…

🚨 OMG! No words!

#academicsky #idsky #statsky

06.03.2026 05:32 πŸ‘ 12 πŸ” 4 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 4
Affirming the consequent - Wikipedia

It's very close to this

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Affirmi...

06.03.2026 09:14 πŸ‘ 3 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

I absolutely don't understand the BlueSky hate for Graeber, who seemed to have the ability to be interesting and engaging even if you didn't agree with him.

05.03.2026 19:37 πŸ‘ 2 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0
A digital CAPTCHA verification window titled "Select all squares with PIPES" against a plain white background. The window contains a 3Γ—3 grid of numbered squares, mixing literal hardware, smoking pipes, and programming syntax.

A digital CAPTCHA verification window titled "Select all squares with PIPES" against a plain white background. The window contains a 3Γ—3 grid of numbered squares, mixing literal hardware, smoking pipes, and programming syntax.

These captchas just keep getting harder #rstats

05.03.2026 15:58 πŸ‘ 596 πŸ” 136 πŸ’¬ 8 πŸ“Œ 2

I still delete these, and why is the software default still to place them in the correspondence rather than do something with the email client? The world only works if we trust each other somewhat by default, that's part of why (rare) untrustworthiness is so damaging and abhorrent.

05.03.2026 17:54 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Go back another few decades and they were mocking John Snow's germ theory.

03.03.2026 22:50 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Teaching is wonderful. Somehow delivering university modules involves much less of it than one might hope, but when you actually get to impart knowledge, nothing beats it.

03.03.2026 22:49 πŸ‘ 3 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0
Preview
Beyond Forecasting: Using MRP (multi-level regression with post-stratification) to investigate minority political behaviour at The University of Manchester on FindAPhD.com PhD Project - Beyond Forecasting: Using MRP (multi-level regression with post-stratification) to investigate minority political behaviour at The University of Manchester, listed on FindAPhD.com

*Academics of Bluesky:* Do you know a great UG/PG student with excellent quants skills?

@nspmartin.bsky.social and I are advertising a great fully-funded PhD on MRP and minority voting with our friends at Ipsos, so send them our way! ✌️

www.findaphd.com/phds/project...

03.03.2026 16:16 πŸ‘ 17 πŸ” 31 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

Not a specialist, just a lifelong Brit, but my observation is it depends on the journalist - most try to get as much of their worldview past "impartiality" rules as possible. I don't think the BBC is subject to particular partisan capture, most of its behaviour is explained by its setup.

03.03.2026 17:24 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Where you have a multimodal likelihood / posterior. There are "likelihood theorists" who try to split the difference here, but the differences in inferential philosophy really matter.

03.03.2026 15:11 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
Post image
02.03.2026 22:13 πŸ‘ 8 πŸ” 2 πŸ’¬ 2 πŸ“Œ 0

Don't get me started on fashions that definitely used to make one look stylish but now look oddly inappropriate.

02.03.2026 20:04 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Being European, I celebrate "pi to one significant figure" day every month, with a little burst of extra accuracy ten days later.

02.03.2026 20:02 πŸ‘ 3 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

Yes if Gorton and Denton isn't a safe Labour seat then where is? Arrow's theorem tells us there's no objectively fair voting system but FPTP is poised to deliver some very odd outcomes.

02.03.2026 19:51 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Yes in the sense that in some countries populations at risk from Mpox means rural families, but there's no nationality restrictions on participation.

02.03.2026 19:50 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0
Co-production workshops to understand how infectious diseases spread during outbreaks | Co-Production Collective

Please circulate! Are you or do you know someone from groups particularly affected by Mpox, & those less likely to be heard by researchers? We are working with @thelovetankcic.bsky.social to organise workshops seeking to improve modelling response.

www.coproductioncollective.co.uk/news/commet-...

02.03.2026 12:28 πŸ‘ 7 πŸ” 8 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0
Co-production workshops to understand how infectious diseases spread during outbreaks | Co-Production Collective

Please circulate! Are you or do you know someone from groups particularly affected by Mpox, & those less likely to be heard by researchers? We are working with @thelovetankcic.bsky.social to organise workshops seeking to improve modelling response.

www.coproductioncollective.co.uk/news/commet-...

02.03.2026 12:28 πŸ‘ 7 πŸ” 8 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

Yes Patrick is great and does enjoy wide respect. It may be his background in industry made it harder for him to work out how to influence things in the public sector.

02.03.2026 10:09 πŸ‘ 2 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

E.g. for a vaccine we mainly want to know if it works at all, but to get at how many people should be offered it and how often we need at least a ballpark on what the % reduction in transmission is and how long. Which is usually more uncertain than any CI suggests ofc.

02.03.2026 08:08 πŸ‘ 2 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Not sure if your post at the head here is saying we can't really do effect sizes, but these are needed at the "hospitals and systems" level even if each clinical encounter mainly needs to know if treatment X will benefit or not the person in front of them.

02.03.2026 08:06 πŸ‘ 2 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

> regression, and cross validation is a very weak guard against over fitting. XGBoost is designed to do things like recognise handwritten digits in scanned images, not look for associations between smoking and cancers.

02.03.2026 07:06 πŸ‘ 7 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Not that the algorithms are wrong, but they almost certainly over fit because the whole point of boosting is you look at what you're getting wrong on the training data and fix that rather than refining the model in an interpretable way as you would doing random effects or whatever in standard >

02.03.2026 07:06 πŸ‘ 7 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

Iirc from her book this rhyme is Klein-approved.

01.03.2026 10:48 πŸ‘ 2 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0