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Roland Dreier

@rbd

I put the R in RDMA. All posts based only on information from within my past light cone.

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Latest posts by Roland Dreier @rbd

yes and it seems pretty clear that very little of their workload is people going from zero to a 1M token query with no intermediate steps

13.03.2026 21:15 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

The models stay the same but the model inference serving systems are improved

13.03.2026 21:03 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Yes in the simplest view of transformer models, doing prefill on a 1M token prompt is quadratically 25x more expensive than a 200K token prompt but I suspect Anthropic is banking on people gradually building up queries so they can use smart query routing and KV caching to reduce the cost

13.03.2026 21:02 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 2 πŸ“Œ 0

If we're (fairly) dinging critics for not being rigorous then we should make sure to be rigorous ourselves

13.03.2026 20:30 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

I think it would be fairer to give figures for inference these days, since it dwarfs training (although even for inference, water is pretty negligible compared to power and other impacts)

13.03.2026 20:29 πŸ‘ 7 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

... and markets are hovering around flat

that's one of the most disorienting things to me

13.03.2026 17:46 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

There's definitely something going on at Xai that I'd be curious to understand... a week ago Musk was beating his chest about how epic and based grok 4.20 is, now he seems to be acknowledging it kinda sucks? And also:

bsky.app/profile/rbd....

13.03.2026 17:43 πŸ‘ 3 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Sure but ... "everyone's dunking on my post when I posted something else about a different thing" ... ok cool I guess?

13.03.2026 17:35 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

Idk, you said what you said. I don't see why people should care that you also said something narrowly hedged about some hypothetical and not defined application that no one has built to your approval

13.03.2026 16:57 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0
Post image

???

13.03.2026 03:47 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
Post image Post image

Huh two senior engineering people leaving cursor just as they're supposedly raising at a $50B valuation??

www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

13.03.2026 03:45 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 1
13.03.2026 00:36 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
BLVD Moving truck with the slogan

PAIN IS REAL
BUT SO IS HOPE

BLVD Moving truck with the slogan PAIN IS REAL BUT SO IS HOPE

Heavy truck

13.03.2026 00:07 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

If you're willing to build a global filesystem that ties into the source control for your monorepo and make a huge investment in hermetic builds, it's super nice

12.03.2026 23:37 πŸ‘ 2 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

This is true but I feel there is a huge gap in quality of implementation between rust and bazel. Maybe it's just the fact that bazel will always be a not-quite-as-good imitation of blaze

12.03.2026 23:37 πŸ‘ 3 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

Money is useful for

1. Buying illegal drugs
2. Hiring hitmen
3. A medium of exchange that facilitates modern technological civilization

Which one do you use it for?

12.03.2026 19:33 πŸ‘ 97 πŸ” 6 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 4

Asahi hasn't even shipped M3 support yet so you'll probably be waiting a loooong time for A18 support 😞

12.03.2026 17:07 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

There's a lesson about saying nice things to people here

11.03.2026 19:47 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Sleep well, brother. Your race is run.

Unironically love this.

11.03.2026 19:33 πŸ‘ 5 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Yooooo what the fuck

Sometimes I worry that I undercut myself by being too self conscious, but I'm confident that *some* self awareness is a useful habit of thought

11.03.2026 19:12 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

I'm glad Adebayo did it, I'm just sad he didn't chuck up a couple more shots and also get Harden's record for missed 3s in a single game

11.03.2026 16:49 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Why doesn't anyone just buy the same shoes but in a size that fits and wear that pair

11.03.2026 16:45 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

I don't know what's funnier, 7-22 on 3s, or 36-43 on free throws

11.03.2026 04:42 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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Lol. Also lmao

11.03.2026 04:31 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0
Email screenshot: 

Hi Roland,

Sailplane.ai, backed by AI kingmaker Khosla Ventures (OpenAI's first investor) and seed specialist True Ventures, is building a "self-driving cloud" - intelligent agents capable of autonomously managing the largest and most advanced AI infrastructure on the planet. Think "Waymo for cloud infrastructure".

Email screenshot: Hi Roland, Sailplane.ai, backed by AI kingmaker Khosla Ventures (OpenAI's first investor) and seed specialist True Ventures, is building a "self-driving cloud" - intelligent agents capable of autonomously managing the largest and most advanced AI infrastructure on the planet. Think "Waymo for cloud infrastructure".

I guess instead of β€œUber for X” the cool kids are building β€œWaymo for X” now?

10.03.2026 19:44 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

I tried one of those car vs. bike calculators and with some pretty conservative assumptions it seems like the car comes out comfortably ahead on costs?

10.03.2026 17:27 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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I mean, Some of My Best Friends are VC Guys, but you gotta admit this is kinda funny

10.03.2026 00:16 πŸ‘ 3 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0
Preview
Study links adoption of electric vehicles with less air pollution and improved health Related News Study finds health disparities in PFAS levels linked to drinking water, food access and industrial pollution November 21, 2024

I do not think this is well supported by evidence. It would be better to have fewer cars overall, but every study I've seen suggests that even if we just replace ICE vehicles with EVs, there are substantial benefits to air quality, including PM2.5 pollution

keck.usc.edu/news/study-l...

09.03.2026 22:33 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

I agree executive turnover should probably be much higher at most companies. But I still think having an *interim* CEO specifically is usually downstream of some earlier governance failure.

09.03.2026 22:26 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Nice handlebar tape too

09.03.2026 22:21 πŸ‘ 5 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0