Election Maps UK

Westminster Voting Intention:

RFM: 27% (-5)
LAB: 20% (=)
CON: 18% (+1)
GRN: 14% (+1)
LDM: 12% (+1)

Via BMG Research, 4-5 Mar.
Changes w/ 28-29 Jan.

Westminster Voting Intention:

RFM: 27% (+1)
GRN: 21% (+3)
CON: 17% (-1)
LAB: 15% (=)
LDM: 10% (-2)
SNP: 2% (-1)

Via @findoutnow.bsky.social, 4-6 Mar.
Changes w/ 25 Feb.

My Seat Model:

PLC: 28
RFM: 27
LAB: 25
CON: 8
GRN: 5
LDM: 3

Majority = 49 (PLC+LAB = 53)

Senedd Voting Intention:

RFM: 26% (-5)
PLC: 26% (+2)
LAB: 20% (=)
CON: 10% (-3)
GRN: 10% (+5)
LDM: 7% (+1)

Via @moreincommonuk.bsky.social, 15 Feb - 3 Mar.
Changes w/ 30 Jan - 10 Feb.

okay, fine. you can add custom parties now...

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🧮 Dynamic Seat Counter
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electionmaps.uk/paint650

Aggregate Result of the 214 Council By-Elections (for 217 Seats) since the 2025 Local Elections:

RFM: 75 (+63)
LDM: 60 (+21)
CON: 25 (-23)
LAB: 17 (-51)
GRN: 17 (+3)
Ind: 9 (-8)
Local: 5 (-5)
PLC: 5 (+1)
SNP: 4 (-1)

Dashboard: electionmaps.uk/byelections-...

Thrupp (Stroud) Council By-Election Result:

🌍 GRN: 67.5% (+3.1)
➡️ RFM: 16.5% (New)
🌳 CON: 7.3% (-10.3)
🌹 LAB: 5.8% (-12.3)
🔶 LDM: 2.8% (New)
💷 UKIP: 0.3% (New)

Green HOLD.
Changes w/ 2024.

Coggeshall (Braintree) Council By-Election Result:

➡️ RFM: 30.7% (New)
🙋 Ind: 28.7% (New)
🌹 LAB: 20.3% (+4.4)
🌳 CON: 17.2% (-12.6)
🔶 LDM: 3.1% (New)

No Ind (-54.3) as previous.

Reform GAIN from Independent.
Changes w/ 2023.

Hextable (Sevenoaks) Council By-Election Result:

🌳 CON: 38.9% (+19.3)
➡️ RFM: 26.3% (New)
🔶 LDM: 23.8% (New)
🙋 Ind: 7.0% (New)
🌍 GRN: 4.0% (New)

No Ind (-80.4) as previous.
Changes w/ 2023.

Spital (Tamworth) Council By-Election Result:

➡️ RFM: 44.6% (New)
🌍 GRN: 20.4% (New)
🌳 CON: 19.4% (-18.9)
🌹 LAB: 16.6% (-23.4)

No Ind (-21.9) as previous.

Reform GAIN from Labour.
Changes w/ 2024.

Murton (Durham) Council By-Election Result:

🌹 LAB: 50.6% (+17.6)
➡️ RFM: 39.6% (-4.5)
🌍 GRN: 4.8% (New)
🌳 CON: 3.1% (-2.0)
🔶 LDM: 1.9% (-2.3)

No Ind (-13.6) as previous.

Labour GAIN from Reform.
Changes w/ 2025.

My Seat Model:

SNP: 61 (-3)
LAB: 19 (-3)
RFM: 17 (+17)
CON: 13 (-18)
GRN: 10 (+2)
LDM: 9 (+5)

Changes w/ 2021.

Holyrood Voting Intention:

Constituency:
SNP: 37% (+3)
LAB: 18% (+2)
RFM: 17% (-2)
CON: 12% (-1)
LDM: 9% (=)
GRN: 6% (-2)

Regional:
SNP: 33% (+5)
LAB: 17% (-1)
RFM: 17% (-1)
CON: 13% (=)
LDM: 9% (-2)
GRN: 9% (=)
ALBA: 1% (-2)

Via @survation.bsky.social, 20-25 Feb.
Changes w/ 8-12 Jan.

My Seat Model:

SNP: 60 (-4)
LAB: 18 (-4)
GRN: 17 (+9)
RFM: 14 (+14)
CON: 11 (-20)
LDM: 9 (+5)

Changes w/ 2021.

Holyrood Voting Intention:

Constituency:
SNP: 36% (+1)
LAB: 20% (+4)
RFM: 16% (-2)
LDM: 10% (+1)
CON: 9% (-2)
GRN: 7% (-2)

Regional:
SNP: 26% (-2)
LAB: 19% (+1)
GRN: 16% (-1)
RFM: 14% (-3)
CON: 11% (-1)
LDM: 10% (+3)

Via @ipsosinscotland.bsky.social, 19-25 Feb.
Changes w/ 27 Nov - 3 Dec.

Westminster Voting Intention:

RFM: 29% (+1)
CON: 19% (-1)
LAB: 18% (-4)
LDM: 14% (=)
GRN: 14% (+3)
SNP: 3% (+1)

Via @moreincommonuk.bsky.social, 27 Feb - 2 Mar.
Changes w/ 20-23 Feb.

Westminster Voting Intention:

RFM: 30% (=)
LAB: 18% (+1)
CON: 18% (-4)
GRN: 15% (+1)
LDM: 13% (-1)

Via Freshwater Strategy, 27 Feb - 1 Mar.
Changes w/ 30 Jan - 1 Feb.

It's just 1 poll (for now) - but here's how it plays out in the Nowcast Model:

RFM: 227 (+222)
GRN: 135 (+131)
LDM: 92 (+20)
CON: 59 (-62)
SNP: 48 (+39)
LAB: 40 (-371)
PLC: 20 (+16)
Others: 10 (+5)

🌍 Highest EVER Green Party Polling

➡️ Lowest Reform Polling Since April 2025

➡️ Lowest Reform lead since July 2025

Westminster Voting Intention:

RFM: 23% (-1)
GRN: 21% (+4)
LAB: 16% (-2)
CON: 16% (-2)
LDM: 14% (=)

Via YouGov, 1-2 Mar.
Changes w/ 22-23 Feb.

5⃣ Council By-Elections are taking place this week across England:

🙋 Coggeshall (Braintree)
➡️ Murton (Durham)
🙋 Hextable (Sevenoaks)
🌍 Thrupp (Stroud)
🌹 Spital (Tamworth)

My Seat Model:

SNP: 55 (-9)
RFM: 22 (+22)
GRN: 18 (+10)
LAB: 14 (-8)
LDM: 11 (+7)
CON: 9 (-22)

Changes w/ 2021.

Holyrood Voting Intention:

Const:
SNP: 34% (+2)
RFM: 18% (+1)
LAB: 14% (-6)
GRN: 11% (+2)
CON: 10% (=)
LDM: 10% (=)

Reg:
SNP: 28% (-1)
RFM: 19% (+1)
GRN: 16% (+6)
LAB: 14% (-7)
CON: 10% (=)
LDM: 10% (=)
ALBA: 1% (-2)

Via YouGov / Scottish Elections Study, 11-18 Feb.
Changes w/ 13-19 Jun.

Also tweaked the Green vote slightly so their surge is greater in seats with high Labour vote shares.

Have significantly overhauled the model in the last couple of weeks.

Tactical voting is now much more sophisticated - every party can now squeeze each other based on the specific matchup. Takes into account gaps between 1st, 2nd, and 3rd to see how clear the tactical choice actually is to voters.

General Election Nowcast - 01/03/26:

RFM: 315 (+310), 28.5% (11 Short)
LDM: 83 (+11), 12.4%
LAB: 78 (-333), 19.0%
CON: 53 (-68), 18.6%
SNP: 44 (+35), 2.7%
GRN: 42 (+38), 14.2%
PLC: 10 (+6), 1.3%
Oth: 6 (+1), 3.4%

electionmaps.uk/nowcast

Westminster Voting Intention:

RFM: 26% (-2)
CON: 18% (+2)
GRN: 18% (=)
LAB: 15% (-1)
LDM: 12% (+2)
SNP: 3% (=)

Via @findoutnow.bsky.social, 25 Feb.
Changes w/ 18 Feb.

Westminster Voting Intention:

RFM: 30% (-1)
LAB: 18% (-5)
CON: 18% (+2)
GRN: 13% (=)
LDM: 12% (+2)
SNP: 3% (=)

Via @opiniumresearch.bsky.social, 25-27 Feb.
Changes w/ 4-6 Feb.

*JUST FOR FUN CLAXON*

If the proportional swing in Gorton & Denton was applied to national voting intention figures (Scaled up so big 5 parties ≈ 93%):

RFM: 415 - 34.6%
GRN: 100 - 24.3%
LAB: 38 - 19.8%
SNP: 35 - 3.0%
LDM: 31 - 7.0%
PLC: 7 - 1.0%
Others: 4 - 3.5%
CON: 1 - 6.8%