Chart from: CAISO’s batteries earn $1.8/kW in January 2026 - Research | Modo Energy
CAISO batteries earned $1.81/kW in January 2026, a 48% decline YoY due to lower natural gas prices compressing arbitrage spreads. This signals tougher revenue conditions for grid-scale sto...
https://modoenergy.com/research/en/caiso-battery-revenues-january-2026-winter-storm-fern-natural-gas-prices
Chart: 40 GWh of small-scale batteries by 2030 would compete with grid-scale, and outpaces current ISP assumptions
Australia plans 40 GWh of home batteries by 2030, outpacing grid-scale BESS assumptions and potentially reducing merchant revenues for grid-scale projects.
https://modoenergy.com/research/en/nem-australia-home-battery-subsidy-impact-on-bess-march-2026
Chart: Southern battery development outpaces available MACSE capacity
Modo Energy attended the KEY Energy Transition Expo in Rimini (4-6 March). Developers, investors, and offtakers all pointed to the same constraint: regulatory uncertainty is the main barrier to Italian BESS ...
https://modoenergy.com/research/en/italy-key-expo-2026-bess-decreto-bollette-macse
Chart: NextEra batteries are earning capacity revenues from Google and local utilities to support load growth in Southern SPP
SPP forecasts peak demand could double to 110 GW by 2035, driven by large load growth. This creates opportunities for project developers to support increasing customer demand.
https://modoenergy.com/research/en/spp-demand-forecast-analysis-march-2026
Appreciate it’s simplified, but in that example I think it still works. So, if we’re running on recips/OCGT, which can happen for short spikes, you’ll get a higher SRMC so it’ll still be a “gas influenced” price
Transmission podcast: Speed to Power vs Net Zero: The Data Center Dilemma - Clarke Energy
🎧 Transmission: Episode covers the data center energy dilemma between speed to power and net zero. Matters as developers balance cost, carbon, and resilience.
https://youtube.com/watch?v=ZLZvUbGHNjg
Chart: Hybrid structures sit between full merchant and full toll - protecting the downside while retaining some upside
Germany: A 2-hour battery earns €70-130k/MW/year COD 2029. Hybrid BESS structures like partial tolls, revenue floors ...
https://modoenergy.com/research/en/de-hybrid-revenue-structures-for-german-bess-financing-physical-virtual-financial-partial-floor-share-swap-ac85c3bf-5b28-435b-ad22-5e6c9efcde49
Midcontinent ISO in the US
Chart: Queue-based projections yield 2 to 5 GW of BESS by 2030, capturing between 4-10% of the 49 GW queue
MISO projects 2-5 GW of BESS by 2030, capturing 4-10% of the 49 GW queue. Concentrated in MISO North, this creates opportunities and risks for developers navigating competitive dynamics.
https://modoenergy.com/research/en/miso-bess-2030-projection
Trying some new short formats on YouTube and TikTok…
youtube.com/shorts/wye0y...
Is this something you’d like to see more of?
Chart: The ME BESS GB index fell to its lowest level in two years in February 2026, as batteries recorded negative wholesale revenues for the first time ever
Battery energy storage revenues in Great Britain fell to £41k/MW/year in February, down 23% from £54k/MW/year in January. This is the lowest monthly figure since February 2024.
https://modoenergy.com/research/en/me-bess-gb-revenues-february-2026-wholesale-battery-energy-storage-balancing-mechanism
Chart: European gas prices reached a 13-month high this week
Dutch TTF gas prices surged nearly 70% in 2 days this week as Iran-Qatar conflict disrupts 20% of global LNG flows. This could boost BESS revenues but thr...
https://modoenergy.com/research/en/gas-price-jump-iran-war-qatar-lng-ras-laffan-bess-batteries-ttf-nbp-jkm-revenues-interest-rates-march-2026
Chart: Battery revenues in ERCOT settle at $1.7/kW-month for December 2025
ERCOT batteries face lower spreads in Feb 2026 due to solar/wind growth and RTC+B launch, but $1.09/kW-month still possible if optimized bidding strategies.
https://modoenergy.com/research/en/february-2026-ercot-bess-benchmark-rtcb-revenues-batteries-performance
Agreed on the above and no offence taken, transparent and simple is best for me. Could be improved but it’s ball park right.
Transmission podcast: Gold Rush or Revenue Trap? Inside Australia's Battery Boom - Neoen
🎧 Transmission: Australia's battery storage market is rapidly maturing, with Neoen leading the charge. The insights on navigating two distinct market designs could shape the global battery industry's future.
https://youtube.com/watch?v=VAua5Mt4lbU
Chart: Constraint costs in Great Britain reach £1.8bn in FY 2025/26 year to date
Great Britain constraint costs reach £1.8bn in FY 2025/26, with Scottish wind curtailment costing £350m - highlighting the need for transmission upgrades to enable the energy tra...
https://modoenergy.com/research/en/gb-great-britain-battery-energy-storage-curtailment-wind-constraint-scotland-costs
Chart from: Q1 2026 Australia Workshops: Five key takeaways for BESS - Research | Modo Energy
Australia's NEM had 5 GW and 11 GWh of operational BESS capacity at end-2025, set to grow 10 GW more in next 2 years, signaling battery storage's rising prominence.
https://modoenergy.com/research/en/australia-nem-q1-2026-workshops-five-key-takeaways-bess-battery-energy-storage
4/ Amended: If you're wondering why 24/25 reverses the trend, that's due to a very windy Apr 2024
Interested to see it when the time comes, we spend a lot of time looking at the cliff in pricing around the final gas unit not running.
On the 24/25 difference, mostly from that exceptional wind in April. Stats below.
Also interested in whether it’s a robust way of measuring of this… I think it’s pretty good, but misses a lot of edge cases, ramps etc. Feels fit for a higher level assessment
You’re right; that 4th post wasn’t correct in identifying the cause, will amend now. Looks largely driven by Apr ‘24, which I expect is lower demand, strong solar/wind.
3/ The 2018-22 cluster sat consistently above 86%. The decline since then isn't uniform: overnight hours in spring and summer are where gas loses its grip first, as solar and wind push prices below what any gas plant would run for.
2/ The method: for each hour, we calculate the short-run marginal cost (SRMC) of a best-in-class CCGT at 58% efficiency.
SRMC = (daily gas price ÷ 0.58) + (UK ETS carbon cost ÷ 0.58)
If the N2EX day-ahead price clears above that threshold, gas is setting the price.
1/ Gas set GB day-ahead power prices in just 77.6% of hours in 2024, down from 89.7% in 2018.
The link between gas and power prices is weakening. Here's a method to measure it.
🧵
Chart: NEM battery revenues fell to a 12-month low in February 2026, with energy spreads and contingency prices also at their lowest annual levels
Australia's NEM battery revenues fell 55% to $54k/MW/year in Feb 2026, a 2-year low, as energy spreads and FCAS prices declined amid increased competition from expanding grid batteries.
https://modoenergy.com/research/en/australia-nem-battery-energy-storage-revenues-february-2026
Chart: Under current proposal, battery are expected to lose up to 25% of qualified capacity
Italy's capacity market proposal would cut battery de-rating from 67% to 53% for 4-hour systems, favoring gas over batteries. This could increase auction clearing prices and open opportunities for new entra...
https://modoenergy.com/research/en/italy-cm-2028-derating-bess-capacity-gas-macse-battery
From 2nd March, what a solar, battery and heat pump system looks like in GB.
The battery targets the peak, and catches excess solar.
Daily import cost, £2.60
Daily export benefit, £0.70
Total daily cost, £1.90
Battery Storage Market Trends: GB, Germany, Texas, California & Beyond
Split into 3 sections:
1) Taking a case study, what's happening in Germany
2) Globally, what's the fundamental case
3) Where are we missing a trick on BESS optimisation?
youtu.be/2slkUcFHDyA?...
Transmission podcast: Geothermal: Turning Oil Wells Into Energy Storage - Sage Geosystems
🎧 Transmission: Geothermal tech turns old oil wells into long-duration energy storage, harnessing underground heat to provide reliable, carbon-free power to the grid.
https://youtube.com/watch?v=dSt-MiiX0Fg
Chart: Although there is significant awarded capacity for storage, much is still waiting approval
Red Eléctrica (REE) published Spain’s demand access capacity maps for the transmission grid, for the first time on the 20th of February 2026.
https://modoenergy.com/research/en/connecting-to-spains-transmission-grid-bess-has-dedicated-headroom
