John Burns Research and Consulting

“Housing reset” forecast for 2026 Experts predict a gradually improving market, with some big caveats.

Director of Research Rick Palacios Jr. summed up the 2025 market with one word:

Underwhelming.

Rick joined @marketplace.org's panel of economists to share our 2026 housing forecast.

▶️ Full episode by @amyscott.bsky.social: www.marketplace.org/story/2025/1...

EP 134: Futures Drop & Builder Playbooks YouTube video by The Lumber Channel

@jbrec.com's building products expert, Chris Beard, breaks down oversupply, builder pullbacks, and build-to-rent demand on The Lumber Word. Texas and Florida are cooling, but the Midwest holds strong. Catch the insights: www.youtube.com/watch?v=KDPb...

Last Chance For Federal Green Home Incentives – Act Now To Save Money The Big Beautiful Bill phases out federal green energy incentives passed in 2022. Here's what homeowners should know to time and save on energy-related home improvement projects.

As federal green home incentives expire, @jbrec.com's Chris Beard and Scott Wild break down the affordability trade-offs. For many, the future of housing remains electric—but not without cost. Read at @forbes.com www.forbes.com/sites/jamieg...

Two charts on shifting housing demand:

1) Homeowners declining in 2Q, first in 9 years

2) Renters continue surging, up +1.6M since 2023

What happens next depends on homebuilder margins, SFR buyers, land sellers, ICE staffing/deportations, job growth, life expectancy, & rates, to name a few.

Immigrants are leaving the US workforce in very large numbers.

Remittance payments US→MX plummeting, down 2+ million from a year ago.

Biggest decline in >30 years - a period that includes a homebuilding depression and a 100-year financial crisis.

Hello Spartanburg! The Affordability Migration Finds New Homes A challenging housing market is drawing builders to cities where they can build homes at the right price point.

Affordability is rerouting housing growth. @conorsen.bsky.social of @opinion.bloomberg.com cites research from @ericfinnigan.jbrec.com and Chris Porter of @jbrec.com on migration shifts from Austin to San Antonio and beyond.
www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...

Where do US house prices go from here? And Bill Hwang’s legal luck

A new @financialtimes.com piece highlights the housing slowdown. Rick Palacios Jr from @jbrec.com says buyer cancelations are up as buyers face mortgage uncertainty.
www.ft.com/content/7d36...

With reshoring on the rise, suburban housing demand could surge in key states. John Macke from @jbrec.com explains what’s next for for-sale trends.
Read more in @rdcnews.bsky.social
www.realtor.com/news/trends/...

Home-builder ETF ends at 5-month high despite bleak outlook for housing. Here’s why. Home-builder stocks rallied on Tuesday afternoon as earnings season kicked into high gear.

Wall Street didn’t expect builders to perform this well. But earnings from D.R. Horton and PulteGroup tell a different story. @jbrec.com's John Burns and Rick Palacios Jr. weigh in for MarketWatch. Read the article by Aarthi Swaminathan:
www.marketwatch.com/story/homebu...

New Home Trends Uncovered: Inside NHTI and DesignLens | Ep. 52 with Anja Seng YouTube video by Alosant

@jbrec.com's Anja Seng joins April LaMon on the Alosant Innovator Series podcast to share how our New Home Trends Institute uses consumer and design research to shape tomorrow’s homes. Watch and listen here: www.youtube.com/watch?v=gEOv...

Secretive real estate investors could spark the next homebuilding boom "Land bankers" are buying billions of dollars' worth of real estate and setting the stage for a homebuilding boom — and cheaper home prices.

Land banking = flexibility in uncertain times. Rick Palacios Jr., Jody Kahn, and Will Frank of @jbrec.com unpack why it matters for homebuilders today and in the next boom. Full story by James Rodriguez in @BusinessInsider: www.businessinsider.com/land-banking...

Why Americans Keep Moving Into Gated Communities YouTube video by CNBC

@peterdennehy.jbrec.com of @jbrec.com breaks down why even older gated communities are rethinking their appeal. From upgraded amenities to stronger community ties, it’s all part of the shift. Watch @cnbc.com report📺 www.youtube.com/watch?v=CuXx...

Affordable Housing, Gen Z & The Near Future Of The U.S. Housing Market Beazer CEO Allan Merrill talks about the US housing market as well as their strategies to navigate the current market turbulence.

In @forbes.com , @deanwehrli.jbrec.com explains why Beazer’s long-term focus could help it emerge stronger from today’s market headwinds. Worth a read: www.forbes.com/sites/jefffr...

If Jerome Powell is ousted, mortgage rates could rise—not fall. @ericfinnigan.jbrec.com of @jbrec.com says millions would lose access to homeownership. Read at @rdcnews.bsky.social
www.realtor.com/news/real-es...

Builders are pessimistic, throwing out ‘outrageous’ incentives to reel in home buyers Builders’ confidence in the housing market rose slightly in July, the National Association of Home Builders said.

Builders in FL and beyond are going all in—buydowns, credits, and deep cuts. Oliver Radvin of @jbrec.com
explains how it takes big incentives just to stay in the game. The housing affordability crunch is reshaping strategy. Read here in @marketwatch.com: www.marketwatch.com/story/builde...

The Push to Make Tiny Homes in Backyards Easier to Finance A bill unveiled Friday aims to provide government backing for second mortgages to finance construction of increasingly popular accessory dwelling units.

ADUs are booming—but financing them isn't easy. A new bill could shift that. @jbrec.com's Scott Wild tells @wsj.com how better financing tools could force local reforms. www.wsj.com/economy/hous...

Trump’s Tariff Threats Hit Builder Stocks. The Housing Market Has Bigger Problems. High home prices and high mortgage rates means that homeownership is out of reach for many Americans.

Tariffs get the spotlight, but @jbrec.com's Rick Palacios Jr. says the real housing issue is demand—or lack of it. “You have to have a pretty negative outlook…” Check out his full quotes in @barrons.com by @shaina-mishkin.bsky.social
👉 www.barrons.com/articles/tar...

Homeownership is slipping further out of reach.

@theguardian.com's @laurenaratani.bsky.social cites data: buying an entry-level home now costs twice as much as renting. That’s a first since 2006. Where does the market go from here? 🏠

🔗 www.theguardian.com/society/ng-i...

Today’s housing demand is evolving—fewer young buyers, more older renters.

@rdcnews.bsky.social cites @ericfinnigan.jbrec.com's data to show how demographic shifts are reshaping real estate. Builders, take note.

www.realtor.com/advice/finan...

Florida housing market doing something "unusual" in multiple cities At the peak of this year's homebuying season, several Florida markets were facing weakening prices and falling sales of new homes.

Florida's new-home market is slowing down during its busiest season. JBREC data highlights price declines and increased incentives in key metros. While oversupply is a concern, long-term demand driven by job growth could present opportunities for investors.

🔗 www.newsweek.com/florida-hous...

New CA Law May Make Your Next Home Search Easier, More Affordable Gavin Newsom signed legislation reforming CEQA. Cal Matters announced on that same day: “One of the biggest obstacles to building new CA housing has now vanished.”

CEQA reforms could open the door to faster housing development in California. 🏘️
@deanwehrli.jbrec.com from @jbrec.com shares how this might finally ease affordability pressures. Read more on @forbes.com.
www.forbes.com/sites/jamieg...

55-Plus Buyers Want Wellness Features And Loved Ones Nearby Homebuying trends for older adults reveal preferences for family and friend closeness, as well as wellness features.

@jbrec.com's Ken Perlman breaks down what the next wave of 55+ buyers really want: community, wellness, and low-maintenance living. Forbes captures it all. 🏡 www.forbes.com/sites/jamieg...

@jbrec.com's Rick Palacios Jr. highlights how homebuilders are scaling back as buyer demand dries up and resale listings flood the market. Tough summer for new construction.
Read more @yahoofinance.com: finance.yahoo.com/news/demand-...

For the first time since 2006, purchasing an entry-level home costs more than twice as much per month as renting. 🫥

Residential electricity prices are shifting across the U.S.—but not evenly.
This new map from @mappymonday.jbrec.com from @jbrec.com shows where rates rose fastest (or fell) year over year.

Ever wonder where in the U.S. housing costs are toughest—whether you rent or own?
This map from @mappymonday.jbrec.com paints the picture.
A timely view using 2023 Census data.

Why Are OpenAI and Microsoft Feuding? | Prof G Markets YouTube video by The Prof G Pod – Scott Galloway

🏠 Builder sentiment tanked in June—and demand is stalling out.
Catch Rick Palacios Jr. of @jbrec.com on Prof G Markets with
@profgalloway.com and Ed Elson.
The resale market is coming alive again—driven by supply, not demand.
🔗 Watch here youtu.be/T08yf6QcgEI?...

Why Are OpenAI and Microsoft Feuding? | Prof G Markets YouTube video by The Prof G Pod – Scott Galloway

Here is Rick's segment: youtu.be/T08yf6QcgEI?...

I wrote about millennials' real estate woes. Then I felt the wrath of Gen X. I wrote about the chaos in store as baby boomers pass down homes to millennials — and managed to enrage Gen X, the overlooked "Sandwich Generation."

Eric Finnigan of JBREC nails it in @businessinsider.com:
Gen X is “on their own.”

They’re juggling their kids, their parents, and their mortgages. No glory—just grit.
The Sandwich Generation finally gets its moment.
📎 Full story: www.businessinsider.com/sandwich-gen...

It’s Mappy Monday! 🗺️
🎓 Curious where college and university employees represent the biggest share of the adult workforce?

This week’s @jbrec map highlights the counties where higher ed jobs shape local economies.

#MappyMonday #HigherEd #Housing