GTLB, MDB, BRZE, INTA, CFLT at or below 6x sales for ~20%+ growth (TTM current bookings growth below) with a case for acceleration. While disruption is always possible many of these companies may prove to be an AI beneficiary creating an accelerating top-line and a revaluation of multiple.
Disruption of SaaS model aside, market is giving some unique r/r right as fundamentals are turning in industry.
These companies exhibit (near) similar unit economics to top-tier SaaS list, while trading at 50%+ discount on an EV/Sales basis. Further each of the companies stand to benefit from AI
After last week software is down again YTD. Application software continues to underperform since 2023.
Many companies revisiting the tariff lows, while top companies remain highly valued despite mid-twenty - 30 growth rates.
Net retention metrics looks healthy (though defined by customers >$10k), and cohorts continue to expand. Overall Figma looks to have a durable growth story in the public markets, while still early in their journey to move upmarket.
Private data suggests a similar linear ramp, with modest net $ growth from $200M of net ARR add per year
Growth in customers and revenue somewhat linear with some dollar acceleration. Q1 impacted by days. Customers >$10k continue to ramp.
Figma S-1 out live on SIQ Pro! Business growing 46% in the last quarter. Growth looks somewhat linear consistent w/ private ARR data. Business is primarily PLG with a minimal backlog ($400M) no split out for >12 months. Positive OI and very healthy payback period!
$FIG @figma.com
Twilio trading at a 2+ turn premium to Braze is insane (on a GM basis)
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Solid quarter for Onestream with acceleration in top-line metrics. Customer count best in class in app software
Solid results so far out of ServiceNow $NOW and $SAP. Enterprise spending looked to hold up through end of March.
ServiceNow Bookings and billings showed rebound from Q4. Disclosure ceased for customers >$1M suggest further deceleration (now disclosed +$5M plus)
Workday $WDAY out after the bell. Forward looking top-line metrics converging toward mid-low teens growth. Q4 is a seasonally significant quarter. Bookings growth has lagged billings and current portion.
High-end of software valuation remains expensive, all top 15 over 13x sales. Vertical software is as nearly expensive as it has ever been in the last 10 years.
Bookings trends solid going into a critical Q4 with Jan 31st reports beginning next week...
Our new top 15 list. Premium valuations continue to diverge from the market. Three companies now >20x sales.
Infrastructure and vertical software continue to see multiples expand. Vertical software valuations are approaching 2021 highs.
Updated valuations (EV/GM NTM) at current prices following the days sell-off. Many valuations have shifted materially following the last quarter results and shift in market conditions. Initial screen below:
Databricks announced earlier today a whopping $10B of funding valuing the business at $62B. $3B of ARR +60% YoY (data warehouse $600M +150% YoY) double from the 1.5B from July 2023.
This valuation maintains Databricks #2 in our coverage in valuation and ARR behind OpenAI.
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Braze $BRZE due after the bell. Company looking for a rebound following a soft Q2. Overall RPO growing >30% will need a rebound in bookings in H2 to maintain/accelerate growth.
Valuation (EV/GM NTM) is at a discount relative to peers/growth profile.
$MDB MongoDB due after the bell. Expectations have been reset higher following a solid Q2 in cloud and bookings.
Cloud grew $19.6M sequentially in the prior year. RPO built substantially in Q2 though the majority of the business is not booked in backlog. Customer count growth slowing.
Never understood the logic of giving cRPO guidance. Conservatism typically implies way too low of bookings numbers especially given there is always uncertainty on in quarter deal closure. Perhaps a good way to reset longer term expectations.
$CRWD Crowdstrike due after the bell will see if there is impact from the cyber incident. Changes in enterprise decision making may take time to show-up in results. Business looks healthy though Q2. Business needs to sustain growth for premium valuation.
Inaugural Bluesky post! $WDAY Workday due after the bell with growth stabilizing in the mid-teens. Long-term bookings have looked soft in 2025. Workday began disclosing cRPO whihc has looked healthy supporting mid teen growth. Business has a long bookings duration >$21B backlog.
JEFFERIES: “.. Software has now outperformed Semis for 6 straight months.
“.. Below are some of the Software companies that have announced new ‘agent’ products and their relative performance since then.”
