Center for European Policy Analysis

How Should the US Treat Greenland? Like Iceland The US and Iceland closed the US airbase at Keflavik in 2006, establishing NATO’s role in the region and exemplifying effective communication.

How Should the US Treat Greenland? Like Iceland | "The US and Iceland closed the US airbase at Keflavik in 2006, establishing NATO’s role in the region and exemplifying effective communication." @philipkosnett.bsky.social and @rlingur.bsky.social

A Desperate Race for Drone Defenses Defense industries have tended to focus on the quality of military output, but the Ukraine war shows the importance of mass.

A Desperate Race for Drone Defense | "Ukraine is racing to develop and scale drone interceptors, while European states rush to buy systems of their own from Kyiv."@kirichenko.bsky.social https://cepa.org/article/a-desperate-race-for-drone-defenses/

Europe’s Fighter Fiasco 2: The Politics The Franco-German FCAS jet seems to have crashed before taking to the air. Europe must find a better approach.

Europe's Fighter Fiasco 2: The Politics | The Franco-German jet seems to have crashed before taking to the air. Europe must find a better approach.
Anna Matilde Bassoli https://cepa.org/article/europes-fighter-fiasco-2-the-politics/

Europe’s Fighter Fiasco 1: Improving Procurement The continent is beginning to spend money on defense but will get far more bang for its buck if it works on common procurement.

Europe's Fighter Fiasco 1: Improving Procurement | "If Europe cannot reliably govern even a marquee cooperative program, then higher defense budgets will result in disappointing and wasteful outcomes." Nathan Decety https://cepa.org/article/europes-fighter-fiasco-1-improving-procurement/

Russia, Europe, and the Iran War — CEPA Fellows Analyze Russia's response to the strikes on Iran and its potential impact on geopolitics in the Middle East, Europe, and beyond.

Russia, Europe, and the Iran War | "The Kremlin believes it thrives on chaos." Mathieu Boulègue https://cepa.org/article/russia-europe-and-the-iran-war-cepa-fellows/

Iran War Won’t Save Putin’s Crumbling Economy Russia is in serious trouble from a ballooning budget deficit. Rising oil prices are unlikely to change the math.

Iran War Won't Save Putin's Crumbling Economy | "Unless oil prices stay higher for longer and the ruble weakens significantly, the Kremlin’s budget problems are here to stay." Alexander Kolyandr https://cepa.org/article/iran-war-wont-save-putins-crumbling-economy/

A Joint Cyber Defense for Europe? The cyber abilities of the EU’s 27 member states are variable, but the best-prepared can benefit from helping the laggards.

A Joint Cyber Defense for Europe? | The cyber abilities of the EU’s 27 member states are variable, but the best-prepared can benefit from helping the laggards. @golubeva.bsky.social
https://cepa.org/article/a-joint-cyber-defense-for-europe/

AI Summitry — Growth Beats Safety Artificial intelligence diplomacy long emphasized safety. It now focuses on economic growth. Will Europe miss the train?

AI Summitry — Growth Beats Safety | "At this year’s New Delhi AI Impact Summit, governments treated AI less as a hazard to contain and more as an economic asset to win." Anda Bologa https://cepa.org/article/ai-summitry-growth-beats-safety/

Has the US Broken International Law? Probably Not As the US strikes Iran, commentators are understanding that International law is much more permissive of military action than thought.

Has the US Broken International Law? Probably Not | "Article 51 says nothing about immediate threats. A single attack is all the justification a state needs to fight back." Chris Stephen

Germany: Europe’s New Security Leader As the US pulls away from confrontation with Russia, Germany is quietly becoming the leader of European security.

Germany: Europe's New Security Leader | "Germany has money to spend, and Merz has opened the spigot." Arndt Freytag von Loringhoven https://cepa.org/article/germany-europes-new-security-leader/

The strategy of Russia’s liberal elite is clear: make your peace with Putin. This is how they survive | Andrei Soldatov and Irina Borogan As the fourth anniversary looms of Russia’s war on Ukraine, those close to the Kremlin prosper while others merely strive to escape the worst repression, say Russian journalists Andrei Soldatov and Ir...

"In the face of what looks like a permanent war, they have chosen adaptation, internalisation and, ultimately, isolation." @andreisoldatov.bsky.social and Irina Borogan
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2026/feb/22/russia-cultural-liberal-elite-putin

“The biggest threat is a crisis, like the [Wagner Group] mutiny led by Yevgeny Prigozhin, or a large-scale Ukrainian attack on Russian soil." @andreisoldatov.bsky.social
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2026/03/02/russia-controls-people-flick-switch/

Putin’s Legacy: Nations of Widows and Orphans Vladimir Putin’s attempt to destroy the Ukrainian people though an unprovoked war is also wiping out entire ethnic minorities across Russia.

Putin's Legacy: Nations of Widows and Orphans | Putin's war has cost Russia dearly, with more than 1.2 million soldiers killed or wounded, and an estimated 1 million more who have fled the country. Walter Clemens

Europe Dominates AI’s Plumbing The continent suffers weaknesses in artificial intelligence. But it also boasts little-known, critical strengths.

Europe Dominates AI's Plumbing | "Europe must accelerate. The pace of European decision-making on digital infrastructure is too slow." Ryan Fedasiuk https://cepa.org/article/europe-dominates-ais-plumbing/

Chinese AI Models Spread Propaganda Globally New reports underline how Chinese artificial intelligence models spout distortions about Ukraine and more.

Chinese AI Models Spread Propaganda Globally | "China’s leaders view AI exports as a strategic tool to expand influence over the global information space." Sarah Cook

Sound of Silence — The Russian Military Comms Collapse Russian military communications collapsed in early February. For Ukrainian forces it was a rare opportunity to counterattack.

Sound of Silence — The Russian Military Comms Collapse | Only mission command is foolproof in an environment of comms denial. The Russians’ ongoing retreat amid their weeks-long comms meltdown is a sign they still haven’t mastered this. @davidaxe.bsky.social

Putin Exposed by Ukraine’s Wicked Witches Vladimir Putin made a rare admission of Russia's weakness when he admitted Ukraine has better heavy drones than Russia.

Putin Exposed by Ukraine's Wicked Witches | "Vladimir Putin made a rare admission of weakness when he admitted Ukraine has better heavy drones than Russia, and that Moscow is struggling to catch up." @kirichenko.bsky.social
https://cepa.org/article/putin-exposed-by-ukraines-wicked-witches/

The War? Getting Better and Better, Say Kremlin Mouthpieces The words used by the Kremlin’s talking heads about the war in Ukraine are at odds with their gloomy facial expressions.

The War? Getting Better and Better, Say Kremlin Mouthpieces | "Leading propagandists complain that they are losing viewers and subscribers as the war grinds on, while they’re now forced to admit that it won’t end anytime soon." @juliadavisnews.bsky.social

Europe Stops Pretending There is still a gap between the continent’s dawning understanding of its security dilemma and the ability to act.

Europe Stops Pretending | Munich did not reveal a Europe in denial. It revealed a continent facing a dilemma that it understands but cannot yet resolve. Maciej Bukowski

Russian people are numb to the deaths of their fathers an... Western estimates put the country’s death toll at 160,000, yet on the homefront there is very little sign of protest as the rows of fresh graves grow longer each day

"A sense of war fatigue is palpable and widespread, but it’s unlikely to provoke mass protest any time soon." Andrei Soldatov @observeruk.bsky.social https://observer.co.uk/news/opinion-and-ideas/article/russian-people-are-numb-to-the-deaths-of-their-fathers-and-sons-in-ukraine

Ukraine Wants to Join the E.U. Quickly. That Won’t Be Easy.

“Everyone wants to keep the US, Ukraine, and Europe on the same page.” Kurt Volker

Ukraine: Busted Myths After Four Years of War The certainties of 2022 feel a long way off on the fourth anniversary of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

Ukraine: Busted Myths After Four Years of War | "Assumption 5: Ukraine is losing. It very clearly isn’t." Francis Harris
https://cepa.org/article/ukraine-busted-myths-after-four-years-of-war/

Behind the Lines: The Agents Driving Ukraine’s Covert War of Attrition Ukraine’s Atesh movement is a thorn in the Kremlin’s side. With agents in the Russian army, its tactics have evolved for a war of attrition.

Behind the Lines: The Agents Driving Ukraine’s Covert War of Attrition | As many as 2,000 agents and informants are helping Atesh, and the group has significantly strengthened security arrangements for its agents to counter Moscow’s growing experience. Elina Beketova

Ukraine Needs New Mid-Range Strike Drones | "Ukraine has made huge strides in its military technology, but ingenuity alone won’t be enough for Kyiv to prevail." David Kirichenko https://cepa.org/article/ukraine-needs-new-mid-range-strike-drones/

Europe Embraces Chinese EVs Europeans are snapping up Chinese electric vehicles as the continent, spurned by the US, turns to Beijing.

Europe Embraces Chinese EVs | Europeans are snapping up Chinese electric vehicles as the continent, spurned by the US, turns to Beijing. William Echikson and Maria-Doriana Gheorghe

NATO is not ready for drone warfare in the Arctic Opinion: Russia is moving faster in fielding uncrewed systems suitable for operations in the region, argue analysts from the Center for European Policy Analysis.

“A growing gap has emerged between the alliance’s ambition to defend the High North and its ability to field Arctic-capable uncrewed systems at scale.” Federico Borsari and Gordon B. “Skip” Davis Jr

NATO is not ready for drone warfare in the Arctic Opinion: Russia is moving faster in fielding uncrewed systems suitable for operations in the region, argue analysts from the Center for European Policy Analysis.

"The alliance needs to close the drone gap with Russia in the High North — before it is too late." Federico Borsari and Gordon B. “Skip” Davis Jr
defensenews.com/opinion/2026/02/23/nato-is-not-ready-for-drone-warfare-in-the-arctic

As Russia's War On Ukraine Nears Fifth Year, Analysts See 'Frozen' Prospects For Peace As Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine approaches its fourth anniversary, former US diplomats and analysts say the conflict is increasingly defined by hardened positions and structural constraints...

As Russia shows no willingness to reconsider its war aims and continues negotiating without good faith, “these negotiations are not going to go anywhere.” Kurt Volker

Russian troops resort to shooting themselves to claim payouts Russia's Investigative Committee has focused on Lieutenant Colonel Konstantin Frolov, known by the call sign 'Executioner', a decorated officer

Amid a widening corruption scandal in which Russian officers allegedly orchestrated self-inflicted battlefield injuries to claim compensation payments, the case points to an officer corps that is “demoralized and decayed.” Pavel Luzin

‘Progressive membership’: Ukraine’s economic resilience shows future for EU business tie-ups Joint ventures on defence, green energy and telecoms suggest how country could join bloc in stages rather than wait for full status

“But the practical side of this is Ukraine is not ready in terms of reform and implementation to be a fully fledged EU member in that space of time.” Kurt Volker