New Ayatollah just dropped.
@adamjschwarz
Writer & Political Commentator | Tracking how far-right authoritarianism and tech oligarchy are eroding democracy. Featured on BBC, Sky News, LBC, EuroNews & more. Appearances: https://www.youtube.com/@AdamJSchwarz https://linktr.ee/adamjschwarz
New Ayatollah just dropped.
The cocktail party ambience gives major Vietnam-era vibes where the White House lived it up with luncheons and evening soirΓ©es with jazz bands while young Americans fought and died in a raging war on the other side of the world.
The mere absence of a "nation building" objective won't save Trump's Iran War from the same catastrophic fate of Bush's Iraq War.
No strategy. No gasp of regional complexity. No plan to fill the regime change power-vacuum. No credible endgame.
All fatal Iraq War mistakes that Trump is repeating.
"It could last six days, six weeks. I doubt six months."
β Donald Rumsfeld on the Iraq War (7 Feb 2003).
Trump
Starmer
NEW: Trump says UK PM Starmer, βshould be giving us, without question or hesitation, things like basesβ. (New York Post)
Astonishing that the US president thinks he can issue commands to the leaders of foreign nations, including allies.
Countries need to keep telling him βnoβ. Sovereignty matters.
An opposition figure like Pahlavi cannot just walk into Tehran and rule if the Islamic regime collapses. Hard power will be needed to enforce law and order and stop factional fighting.
There's no apparent force to do that. Iran's military is, by design, the fiercely loyal protector of the regime.
So if even a US military occupation and support for the Iraqi Army couldn't stop Iraq from civil conflict and national fracturing, it's impossible to see how an exclusively air power-facilitated overthrow of Iran's regime is less likely to produce a gigantic power vacuum that leads to civil war.
The Trump admin brags that the lack of a "nation building" objective distinguishes the Iran War from the Iraq War. Attempted nation building did fail in Iraq, but it wasn't the cause of the subsequent factional fighting. It was the power vacuum that even a US military occupation couldn't overcome.
Trump is making the same mistake as Bush in assuming military capability ensures a favourable outcome in war.
The Middle East is a phenomenally intricate and delicate labyrinth of powers and factions. An intervention on this scale requires expertly crafted policy to avoid adverse destabilisation.
I'm increasingly convinced that Pete Hegseth is a sadist with a fetish for violence.
The grotesque relish in his perversely detailed descriptions of firepower and domination is deeply disturbing.
Anyone with his psychological profile should be nowhere near military decision-making.
"Operation Epic Fury has delivered twice the air power of Shock and Awe of Iraq in 2003."
Yeah that's where the Iraq War went wrong. Not enough bombs.
This man needed therapy, not a job running the US Military.
Hegseth: "We are only four days into this and the results have been incredible."
- Middle East engulfed in regional war
- 11 countries attacked by Iran
- Oil & gas prices skyrocketing
- Strait of Hormuz now a conflict zone
- Terrorism threat raised across the world
- No sign of Iran regime collapse
Spanish PM Pedro SΓ‘nchez on the Iran War.
"Spain's position at this juncture is clear and forceful. It is the same position we have maintained in Ukraine and also in Gaza.
No to the breaking of international law that protects us all, especially the most defenceless - the civilian population."
Spanish PM SΓ‘nchez on Trump's threat to end trade:
"We are not going to be accomplices to something that is bad for the world and contrary to our values and interests simply because of fear of reprisals... We have absolute confidence in the economic, institutional & moral strength of our country."
Spanish PM SΓ‘nchez responds to Trump:
"Spain is against this disaster... Govts are here to improve people's lives... It is absolutely unacceptable that those leaders who are unable to fulfill that mission use the smoke of war to hide their failure, and in the process, fill the pockets of a few."
A good strategy to destroy Reform UK would be to pressure Farage to democratise the party, as he's long promised to do.
Empowering members to select candidates, set policy and elect leadership would turn it into an extreme right party and cause an internal civil war, resulting in a split/implosion.
Trump Truth Social post: Effective IMMEDIATELY, I have ordered the United States Development Finance Corporation (DFC) to provide, at a very reasonable price, political risk insurance and guarantees for the Financial Security of ALL Maritime Trade, especially Energy, traveling through the Gulf. This will be available to all Shipping Lines. If necessary, the United States Navy will begin escorting tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, as soon as possible. No matter what, the United States will ensure the FREE FLOW of ENERGY to the WORLD. The United Statesβ ECONOMIC and MILITARY MIGHT is the GREATEST ON EARTH β More actions to come. Thank you for your attention to this matter! President DONALD J. TRUMP
Ah, now that insurance is sorted, maritime workers have literally no excuse not to travel through a raging war zone where the main combatant announced it would destroy any vessel that tried to pass through.
Psychotherapist Keir Starmer asking Donald Trump, "And are these windmills in the room with you right now?"
Starmer's next meeting with Trump.
Imagine complaining about "windmill" aesthetics when you look like a pumpkin that's sprouted limbs and gained partial sentience.
Trump is wrong. "Sharia courts" in the UK are not actual courts. They are not part of the judiciary & have no legal authority.
They are private bodies that offer Islamic guidance & mediation to Muslims.
Christians & Jews have Beth Din courts & ecclesiastical tribunals that operate in the same way.
Trump lashes out at the United Kingdom:
"The UK has been very uncooperative... They've ruined relationships... They got windmills all over the place that are ruining the country, ruining the landscapes, ruining the beautiful fields... You have Sharia courts adjudicating law."
And of course, US and Israeli bombing of Iran will only grow in magnitude with higher civilian causalities as they progress through targets and become increasingly desperate.
The notion that this is a war of liberation for the Iranian people will seem increasingly confused as thousands are killed.
I hate to say it, but the worst violence from Iran is yet to come.
The regime has a long history of targeting the softest possible targets, particularly civilian sites.
We are about to see some truly ugly events across the Middle East and beyond. Brace yourselves, but don't give up on humanity.
Hillary Clinton to Republicans on the House Oversight Committee:
"You have made little effort to call the people who show up most prominently in the Epstein files... This intuitional failure is designed to protect one political party and one public official rather than to seek truth and justice".
Hillary Clinton's rightfully furious response when she discovers that Lauren Boebert was releasing photos of her during Thursday's Epstein deposition - against the agreed House Oversight Committee rules.
When your boss makes his wife your line manager for the day.
Melania Trump is chairing a UN Security Council meeting.
I'm not joking.
The US currently holds the presidency of the council and that's who Trump chose as chair.
"He [Trump] is losing control of the decision to escalate... He can cut his losses now, pay a political price, try to stop the war, even though it would be a failure. Or he play for the long run and become Lyndon Johnson in the Vietnam War and face a more disastrous political outcome." - Robert Pape