G Elliott Morris

department of "limited overseas military operation"

First poll I've seen on support for impeaching Trump over his handling of the Epstein files www.dataforprogress.org/blog/2026/2/...

noem? more like noe more

Taking questions for the interactive segment of our live podcast taping happening at 2PM Eastern! We love audience questions. Put them in this thread: open.substack.com/chat/posts/b...

Not my model, L2's, and yes I think so

bingo

let me put it this way: once you control for race, the income coefficient is close to zero, and in fact may be negative for mamdani (super-rich whites are the most pro-cuomo group in the electorate)

Since everyone is talking about new voters, I pulled up the Virginia voter file to check how many 2025 general election voters were non-2024 voters. Per L2, that number is 200k, or about 6% of all ballots cast in the race. These 200k were modeled at 60% Dem and 20% Rep

pretty sure this income relationship is confounded with race

technically there is no "evidence" that you are conscious either

tell us why!

is daines worried about being the last statewide elected official who hasn’t committed a public assault on someone?

"All the MAGAs I follow are ___"

Ok, and that wouldn't matter if journalists stopped writing content on the site — and in doing so, exposing themselves to all the posts from the fringe right of U.S. politics that have been algorithmically tuned to pickle their brains. It's a giant red filter bubble

I don't have a problem with Tim. But I do think it is deleterious that so many smart people spend so much time on X, which has essentially become an algorithmically and AI-optimized far-right MAGA message testing and propaganda machine. People assume X posts represent the masses, but they don't!

So one Republican senator from Montana tonight suddenly announced he would not run for re-election this year, and the other Republican senator from Montana broke a guy's hand?

Talarico is running an anti-system campaign that could be very appealing to indies & Trump voters (who you need to win in a Trump +14 state). By highlighting positions that are not correlated with left-right ideology, he can attract right-leaning voters. Smart www.gelliottmorris.com/p/meet-ameri...

59% of Americans Oppose the Military Action in Iran www.nytimes.com/2026/03/04/u...

the conventional wisdom a year ago was that trump was untouchable on immigration and indomitable with independents and democrats shouldn't even talk about the issue

One of the JD Vance lines that worked best with young men in 2024 was that America shouldn't be funding foreign wars when people at home are suffering. I imagine this price tag isn't going to sit well with them

LIVE SOON: What the polls say about the U.S.-Iran war Starting Mar 5 at 2:00 PM EST

We are getting a lot of polls on the US war in Iran now that pollsters have had time to be in the field. There is a general consensus across surveys, but some notable disagreement to unpack. We will do that tomorrow in the live Strength In Numbers podcast:

open.substack.com/live-stream/...

Poll: Majority of voters disapproves of how Trump has handled Iran Most independents say the U.S. should not have taken military action, along with a slice of Republicans, according to a national NBC News poll.

New @nbcnews.com poll

On what Americans think about Trump’s handling of Iran:

• 41% approve
• 54% disapprove
• 3% no opinion
• 2% not sure

Should the U.S. have taken military action against Iran?

• 41% say yes
• 52% say no
• 7% not sure

www.nbcnews.com/politics/tru...

Six data-driven reasons Texas could actually go blue in 2026 Democratic candidate James Talarico might be the best chance in recent history to flip a U.S. Senate seat Republicans have held for 65 years

Texas reaction post
www.gelliottmorris.com/p/six-data-d...

Quite literally “we have always been at war with Iran.”

well put

i do not think we have enough publicly accessible data to answer this question. maybe a private campaign was doing some sort of active listening project and can say, but certainly for the public data folks the answer has to be "idk"

Eastern

That was for ABC polling. David is talking about YouGov, which is honestly a better comparison since in 2018 ABC was using noisy RDD polls and YouGov’s methodology is more apples to apples

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