“Israel is hammering Iran. [But] the question is, how long can we go on like this? What is the endgame?”
Our analyst Mairav Zonszein reports from Tel Aviv as the U.S., Israel and Iran enter a perilous new phase of direct confrontation.
www.crisisgroup.org/how-we-work/...
After Taliban attacks on Pakistan’s border areas, Pakistani jets hit Taliban targets across eastern and southern Afghanistan overnight.
New @crisisgroup.org report urges peaceful ways to settle differences away from the battlefield.
www.crisisgroup.org/rpt/asia-pac...
🔥Risk of descending into a new conflict in an already volatile Horn of Africa. While all sides appear wary of igniting a new war, simmering grievances, overblown rhetoric and military preparations indicate core actors are readying themselves for that eventuality.
www.crisisgroup.org/brf/africa/e...
Great event, featuring opening remarks from @annikennorway.bsky.social and discussion between @ishaantharoor.bsky.social and @crisisgroup.org President @comfortero.crisisgroup.org of our 2026 10 Conflicts to Watch.
At a time when the AU is needed the most, it is arguably at its weakest since it was inaugurated. It’s time to put less weight on its institutional role & recognise that, right now, the key to conflict prevention most often lies in the hands of other players.
www.crisisgroup.org/brf/africa/b...
“Ms. Takaichi’s supporters hope that her victory will help send a message that Tokyo will not back down in the face of Chinese threats.”
She’ll surely use her impending March visit to D.C. to seek assurances about U.S. commitments in the region.
www.nytimes.com/2026/02/08/w...
As I wrote last spring:
"In short, the United States behaving as a predatory hegemon unconstrained by the UN Charter and threatening other states with territorial conquest...may spur more countries to acquire their own atomic insurance policies."
www.justsecurity.org/109537/upend...
2/2 If Trump uses the Board of Peace as a framework—or a diplomatic fig leaf—for these powers to de-escalate the Sudanese war or other proxy conflicts, then that would be a diplomatic and humanitarian coup.
~ @richardgowan1.bsky.social
1/2 The countries signing on to the new institution in Davos include some—such as Egypt and the United Arab Emirates—that have backed different sides in Sudan’s grim civil war.
~ @fortid.crisisgroup.org
foreignpolicy.com/2026/01/22/t...
2/2 But defence aid has also gone both ways: to date, NATO’s Article V commitment to mutual defence has only been invoked on behalf of the U.S., which other allies acted to support after the terrorist attacks of 11 September 2001.
Fact as Trump talks up ungrateful allies here in Davos:
1/2 In exchange for shouldering much of Europe’s security burden, Washington has enjoyed loyal allies and partners in its international endeavours (and wars) and had enormous sway in all alliance decisions.
While Trump has several times referenced national security in his talk of acquiring Greenland, it is difficult to make an interest-based case for his vision.
www.crisisgroup.org/qna/europe-c...
2/2 But rather than run risk of military escalation, 🇺🇸should create other incentives for change from within Iran. Only Iranians can determine what reform looks like. For 🇺🇸, linking sanctions relief to the political renewal the country badly needs is a better way to help the protesters than bombing.
1/2 In Iran: perhaps the greatest leadership failure of all has been resistance to change at home.
What Iran’s regime is now struggling to contain is the predictable consequence of rejecting major changes in how it runs the country.
www.crisisgroup.org/middle-east-...
Voters go to the polls in Uganda on 15 January.
Question: what might these elections portend for Uganda after Museveni departs? The clock is ticking for Uganda’s long-serving leader and many are contemplating the post-Museveni transition that is surely coming.
www.crisisgroup.org/africa/ugand...
Gambia, which brought the case says, it's “about real people, real stories and a real group of human beings – the Rohingya of Myanmar. They have been targeted for destruction. They are farmers, labourers, teachers, mothers, fathers, sons, daughters, grandparents.”
www.theguardian.com/world/2026/j...
Trump appears focused on forcing Caracas to accept what amounts to neocolonial tutelage & pillage of its oil. But there can’t be resolution of Venezuela’s deep-rooted, long-running conflict w/out comprehensive negotiations & sustained gradual political transition.
www.crisisgroup.org/latin-americ...
While Venezuelans live with a deeply uncertain future, the seizure of Maduro caps a year of Trump demonstrating ever more brazenly his belief that Washington must have free rein in the Western Hemisphere.
~ @latam.crisisgroup.org @crisisgroup.org
time.com/7344540/trum...
“Trump had his own agenda, it was not the same agenda as the opposition leadership. So for many people this is going to mean a great deal of heart searching. They're going to have to acknowledge that Trump really is not working for them, he's working for himself.”
www.crisisgroup.org/united-state...
Crisis Group's @comfortero.crisisgroup.org has been appointed as a Companion of the Most Distinguished Order of Saint Michael and Saint George.
“It’s a privilege to lead an organisation that continues to serve as an invaluable global public good”.
#NYHonours
www.crisisgroup.org/who-we-are/c...
Congratulations to @comfortero.crisisgroup.org for her place on the New Years' Honours list in recognition of Comfort’s services to Crisis Response and Conflict Prevention.
NEW MAP ALERT 🗺️
We just shipped a brand-new Mapbox scrolly at @crisisgroup.org — rebuilt from the ground up with full-motion video and interactive maps throughout.
Design: @clairemaevabg.bsky.social
Engineering: me
👉 www.crisisgroup.org/visual-expla...
Here’s why the year ahead looks set to be as bloody as the one ending.
Scroll through our latest visual explainer unpacking the conflicts @crisisgroup.org is watching in 2026. 3/3
www.crisisgroup.org/visual-expla...
Conflict is spiking worldwide, and major wars have erupted with terrible frequency. Where 2025 was a bloody affair, 2026 also promises little better as the world continues careening into a dangerous new era. 2/3
foreignpolicy.com/2025/12/31/1...
🔴@crisisgroup.org’s 10 Conflicts to Watch in 2026 is out.
From the battlefields of Ukraine & Sudan, to the crisis in Venezuela, to the tentative ceasefire in Gaza, we lay out the global hotspots to pay attention to this coming year with @foreignpolicy.com ⬇️ 1/3
www.crisisgroup.org/global/10-co...
🔥 Prospects for de-escalation between Cambodia and Thailand are bleak.
Both sides call the other the aggressor and claim to be acting in self-defence.
~ @mzwheeler.bsky.social @crisisgroup.org
www.crisisgroup.org/asia-pacific...
A delicate dance taking place among EU members to bypass one of its own in effort “to indefinitely immobilise up to €210bn in Russian sovereign assets” as Trump applies more pressure on Zelenskyy to respond within days on his latest peace proposal.
giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...
Honouring his predecessor's planned travel, Pope Leo chooses Turkey and Lebanon for first foreign visit and "underscores the message he sent from his very first Sunday address in May when he called for peace."
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/26/w...
There is no public evidence to support the claim that Mr. Maduro is the head of a military-run drug cartel, but it contains enough half-truths to make it politically useful.
@philgunson.bsky.social @crisisgroup.org
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/21/o...
Indispensable read today from my @crisisgroup.org colleague @glaeldys.bsky.social on #Ecuador, where a hard-handed approach against criminal gangs has fragmented and exacerbated violence.
As Ecuador votes in a critical referendum, don't miss this important read 👇
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/16/o...
