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Stefan Schubert

@stefanschubert

I run The Update newsletter: www.update.news Book: academic.oup.com/book/56384

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06.10.2023
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Latest posts by Stefan Schubert @stefanschubert

Teaching economics or social sciences?

Concepts like the unemployment rate or labor force participation can be tricky to explain clearly.

Our new Work & Employment page breaks these down with clear explanations and visualizations β€” all free to download and use in your classes and presentations.

06.03.2026 16:35 πŸ‘ 23 πŸ” 9 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 1

Oh thanks, Gustav!

06.03.2026 14:42 πŸ‘ 2 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Thanks, I'll check it out

06.03.2026 14:41 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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The debate on population decline is often confusing.

I distinguish between:

* The transition problem: a falling population affecting the age structure
* The size problem: fewer people being bad in itself
* The balance problem: decline in well-functioning countries

www.update.news/p/why-does-p...

06.03.2026 14:24 πŸ‘ 10 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0
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Is it better to eat locally produced beef or imported fruit and vegetables?

The difference is enormous: since transport only accounts for five percent of greenhouse gas emissions from food, what you eat completely dominates where it comes from.

www.update.news/p/trump-prov...

04.03.2026 19:31 πŸ‘ 27 πŸ” 5 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 1
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The company that Swedes trust the most is the government alcohol monopoly.

IKEA is a distant second.

05.03.2026 09:16 πŸ‘ 10 πŸ” 2 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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Is it better to eat locally produced beef or imported fruit and vegetables?

The difference is enormous: since transport only accounts for five percent of greenhouse gas emissions from food, what you eat completely dominates where it comes from.

www.update.news/p/trump-prov...

04.03.2026 19:31 πŸ‘ 27 πŸ” 5 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 1
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Americans have been unlucky to end up with someone like Donald Trump as president, as few people are that flawed.

But you shouldn't have to rely on luck. The president's power should be reined in.

Unfortunately, I'm not optimistic it will happen.

www.update.news/p/trump-prov...

04.03.2026 14:23 πŸ‘ 5 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0
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Pride in being American and support for Israel used to be consensus views in the US, but in the last few decades, they’ve quickly become highly polarising.

While Democrats' views have shifted quickly, Republicans' haven’t changed.

www.update.news/p/when-the-e...

03.03.2026 19:04 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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Swedish shootings are now down almost 70% in less than four years

www.update.news/p/why-is-cri...

03.03.2026 15:07 πŸ‘ 19 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0
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When the environment recovers, no one talks about it Plus: Britain’s inactivity crisis is receding, Western power is underestimated, and more

In today’s newsletter: the immense power of negativity bias.

It leads us to exaggerate social and environmental problems and to underestimate Western power.

Correcting for this bias is central to a correct worldview.

www.update.news/p/when-the-e...

03.03.2026 14:15 πŸ‘ 15 πŸ” 5 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0
Preview
Anthropic blacklisting drives record Claude downloads Links on Iran and Anthropic

New post on Iran and Anthropic

* Polymarket estimates 52 percent chance of regime change this year
* Americans disapprove of the attack by 43 percent to 27 percent
* Consumers download Claude at record pace after Pentagon blacklists Anthropic
* And more

www.update.news/p/anthropic-...

02.03.2026 14:12 πŸ‘ 6 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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The number of Americans living in Norway is overtaking the number of Norwegians living in the US.

27.02.2026 12:07 πŸ‘ 11 πŸ” 3 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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The Nazis stopped Jewish doctors from practising, so thousands of them left the country (my great grandfather was one of them). So many left that this was a good natural experiment for estimating the causal effect of losing doctors on infant mortality (& thousands died)

26.02.2026 23:23 πŸ‘ 108 πŸ” 46 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 3

Second Republic ftw

26.02.2026 22:07 πŸ‘ 6 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

They sound made up

26.02.2026 22:05 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0
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Though Americans with low education are more likely to be sure that God exists, they are less likely to actually attend religious services.

It may reflect the fact that they are less inclined to participate in community institutions in general.

www.update.news/p/technologi...

26.02.2026 15:40 πŸ‘ 2 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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Like capitalism, technological transformation of life is part of the modern condition.

If you’re sceptical of technologies like life extension and AI, don’t be like the communists – who tried to abolish capitalism – but like the social democrats, who shaped it.

www.update.news/p/technologi...

26.02.2026 14:15 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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South Korea's fertility rate edges up for the second year in a row, but is still just 0.80 children per woman.

www.update.news/p/links-sout...

25.02.2026 14:20 πŸ‘ 12 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Interesting, though that study is fairly old. Do you know if they've found the same pattern with newer and better systems?

24.02.2026 14:35 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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Why we shouldn’t fight automation Plus: the poverty decline isn’t just about China, the plummeting wages of British degree holders, and more

Some economists argue that we should steer AI away from automation towards 'augmentation'.

In today's newsletter, I argue that this is a mistake.

Governments can't steer huge societal transformations in this way.

And even if we could stop automation, we shouldn't.

www.update.news/p/why-we-sho...

24.02.2026 14:16 πŸ‘ 2 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 1
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People work much less at night than they used to.

Since the 1970s, US night work has likely dropped more than 50%.

And it's not about changing job types, but simply about people getting richer.

Economic growth is a universal acid.

www.update.news/p/the-long-d...

23.02.2026 15:13 πŸ‘ 13 πŸ” 2 πŸ’¬ 2 πŸ“Œ 0
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People work much less at night than they used to.

Since the 1970s, US night work has likely dropped more than 50%.

And it's not about changing job types, but simply about people getting richer.

Economic growth is a universal acid.

www.update.news/p/the-long-d...

23.02.2026 15:13 πŸ‘ 13 πŸ” 2 πŸ’¬ 2 πŸ“Œ 0
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European politics has an interesting geographical pattern (as measured by the affiliation of the prime minister or president).

The interior is conservative, while the west coast has centrist and left-wing leaders.

www.update.news/i/188900711/...

23.02.2026 14:26 πŸ‘ 6 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Figures in academic papers are often laughably bad.

The other day I could only interpret a chart thanks to ChatGPT, which told me what the legend said and told me that you, feeble human, could read it too if you zoom in 400%.

21.02.2026 17:23 πŸ‘ 13 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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There's a historic shift in Sweden: fraud is about to overtake theft as the largest category of crime. Huge change in the last 20 years.

This mirrors the development in other countries - e.g. fraud is already the largest category of crime in the UK.

www.update.news/p/what-gymna...

19.02.2026 14:49 πŸ‘ 4 πŸ” 2 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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Very cool competition that the Financial Times held in 1914 to forecast the border changes in WWI.

β€˜Precisely seven years after the competition closed to entries, the FT announced: β€œNo map sent in is even approximately accurate as compared with the final lines.”’

www.update.news/p/ai-just-is...

17.02.2026 19:45 πŸ‘ 7 πŸ” 2 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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AI just isn’t good enough to do your job Plus: forecasting the First World War, the precipitous fall in international adoptions, and more

Why is AI not having more of an impact on jobs?

Some say it's because of quirky preferences or human irrationality.

But imo it's that we underestimate the messiness of the world, and overestimate effective AI capabilities.

->

www.update.news/p/ai-just-is...

17.02.2026 14:46 πŸ‘ 4 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0
Post image

Very cool competition that the Financial Times held in 1914 to forecast the border changes in WWI.

β€˜Precisely seven years after the competition closed to entries, the FT announced: β€œNo map sent in is even approximately accurate as compared with the final lines.”’

www.update.news/p/ai-just-is...

17.02.2026 19:45 πŸ‘ 7 πŸ” 2 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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From today's newsletter, where I also cover a range of other issues:

www.update.news/p/ai-just-is...

17.02.2026 14:46 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0