If/when Reform terminates ECHR, EU will likely respond by leaving the security component of post-Brexit trade cooperation agreement, making it even harder to track illeagl migration across borders and into the UK
Brexit/EU tensions: Farage has vowed to rip up the Withdrawal Agreement and try to renegotiate. Ofc he's already hated in Brussels but a breakdown in relations will only make getting returns agreements even harder...
The Taliban, like the airline companies, will have Farage over a barrel. The sight of Britain's former enemies extorting the country out of millions in a migration deal would go down very badly with veterans etc.
it's hard to see how that sort of deal could work and, crucially, be popular and retain public consent. Especially when its done in the context of stripping people with ILR of their citizenship/ general upheaval
To avoid this, they may look to making deals with the Taliban in Afghanistan, and or other regimes distasteful to the British public. It's hard to imagine Farage shaking hands with their leader in Kabul... Giving them hundreds of millions will be hard to sell
...seen in Manston in 2022 (while Robert Jenrick was Immigration Minister), where there was an outbreak of diphtheria, scabies and MRSA. 4,000 ppl were held there despite capacity being 1,600. There is an ongoing inquiry into what happened.
Detention centres pt2: Reform has promised to deport 600k over 5 years. But if they try to act quickly, they'll find there is no capacity in the system to house people while they are waiting on a decision. This could mean that we see a repeat of the disorder and conditions..
Detention centres: it's a myth that there are hundreds of 'disused military bases' scattered across the country. A Daily Mail article recently claimed there were '2,177' ready for conversion but this included school CCF huts... www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article...
(This is assuming they have the capacity to put on hundreds of additional flights. At the moment, some flights to say, Nigeria, only run with a couple of people on board. Reform would be paying for these sorts of international flights all the time, unless they make agreements.
Flights: the UK currently uses private airlines to remove/deport people. To rapidly expand flights, new contracts will have to be negotiated rapidly and as only a select few companies run them, they will have officials over a barrel, likely leading to a payday for owners.
How much extra are you going to pay for someone to go into new border units than, say, the police? In the US, they are offering $50k sign-on bonuses for would-be ICE employees. One way is through big civil service cuts. BF was ringfenced in announcement of 3.5bn cuts
Staffing: Zusuf calls for "ICE-style" raids in this piece (something he's unlikely to repeat soon after the recent shooting in Minnesota). But the Home Office/border force is already at capacity doing these sorts of raids on businesses like car washes and barber shops.
Let's assume that Reform has passed a Great Repeal Bill and has left the ECHR, Refugee Convention, and Human Rights Act (big If but can be done through primary legislation eventually)
What operational obstacles would Reform run into in government if it tried to deport 600k people (or 1.2 m as Zia often claims)? #whatifReformwin thread:
www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/...
It’s a gripping speculative non fiction thriller telling the story of what Farage could do as prime minister, based on dozens of interviews with insiders and those tasked with preparing for what could be store of Britain…
Delighted to say I’m publishing a book called What If Reform Wins: a Scenario with @bloomsburybooksuk.bsky.social in April 2026 t.co/beKEShh4Gf
details of the ghent altarpiece, seen this weekend
archway is not the place to see spring in. but standing in front of this tree at midnight last night was enough for now
as nature in the UK has become ever more depleted, ppl's understanding of what is truly wild has become denuded. I'm surprised how often on walks/trains ppl will compliment a landscape of fields, when in truth its an ecological wasteland. they think green = nature, and fear anything more challenging
enjoying @charliehparker.bsky.social’s excellent Benidorm dispatch with racing fans enjoying €1 pints in the sun instead of trackside in the Cotswolds
and they aren’t happy with the v&a
the stained glass windows of fairford, glos
this but for a day bed
favourite thing about this is that she doesn't even like it and keeps it in storage (in her Tudor manor)
hampstead latest
Collision of the Stena Immaculate and Solong in the North Sea could become a major oil spill. According to Kpler data, the tanker left Corinth carrying 128k barrels of refined crude. It doesn't appear to have offloaded prior to being hit by the Solong.
More here www.thetimes.com/uk/transport...
