@psurridge
Professor of Political Sociology, University of Bristol British politics, elections, public opinion and (a lot of) political values. SubStack: https://pollingsnippets.substack.com/?r=4a6d0z&utm_campaign=pub-shar
I'm the same, hate it when there are obvious errors and no VAR but it does feel like there needs to be something similar to 'Umpires call' where the margin is very tight.
Today was not the day to see a song lyric and think 'Oh I haven't listened to The Final Cut in a while'
I wonder if he would be quite so keen if he saw the data on admissions by ethnicity.
A great example of 'catches win matches' - two superb boundary catches for India and a drop by England the difference π
Before the Blue sky crowd left, those on the right were often very happy to roll out 'Twitter is not Britain' but now it mostly agrees with them they seem to have forgotten this completely
A little like watching Spurs last season - can't say I'm not entertained
I was very happily impressed yesterday...just no need for this today
This is not really the afternoon viewing I was hoping for π
It is the standard BPC wording on uncertainty - and from what I know of the BPC I imagine it was extremely difficult to find something that was both accurate enough and acceptable to all members.
It isn't helpful to you or I, but it does signal uncertainty to someone without any statistical training and ought to disuade journalists from talking about changes of 1-2% as if they are shifts in the public mood.
The key is there is no calculation being done here, an error level for a sample size has been taken as an estimate and applied to all groups. They are using this (taken from BPC website) and showing it graphically
Completely correct for a statistical margin of error but that isn't what they are showing, they are using a fixed +/- as described in the footnote and I think following the wording that was agreed with the BPC. It helps to signal uncertainty but is very unhelpful for people teaching statistics!
Thank you I will look into this.
Which is exactly why Labour got off on completely the wrong foot with the WFA they didn't grasp the values signal it sent and that values impact economics too.
Striking that Reform have now overtaken Labour as the party people would most like to vote against - very much matches what we heard in Gorton with many voters primary concern less merits of Lab/Green but who could best stop Reform.
My year 12 son just sat at dinner and said he was 'so excited for the next general election' - my work here is done π
I thought they were all for stopping benefits for people who don't contribute?
Oh no @yougov's website seems to have had a refresh and it's just about impossible to find things. Though in the case of today's tables I think actually impossible cos they (not unreasonably) aren't up yet?
I understand completely the PTSD, and it must be so much worse for your husband, but I have something very similar after living like that with Mum for so long.
Oh my goodness, how is it going so wrong in so many places. I'm glad you are getting what you need now.
I'm not sure if it is better or worse to know it isn't personal!
Most people don't have these intense periods of interaction with the system so it's easy to think it is just one slip up but I don't think I've had a single encounter for 3 years that didn't have a clear point of failure in it.
I recall about 10 years ago having a near meltdown because my son came home and said the dinner lady said I needed to make him a packed lunch because he didn't like the school dinners.
But more seriously, we hear a lot about 'over' diagnosis keeping people out of work and much less about a complete lack of treatment options.
Today in 'you couldn't make it up' encounters with the NHS, the mental health referral desperately needed to cope with all this and supposedly done 6 weeks ago was never done. Not sure how I offended the NHS gods quite so badly.
If submitted as a student essay I'd take that level of over writing as a red flag for AI use.
This does depend to some extent on where you live. In some towns WHSmith was really the only place to get books and magazines on the high street vs supermarkets. Notice this most on holiday in UK seaside towns and other smaller towns.
So she wants the government to back a war in the middle east but for voters to have no opinion on it?
π΄σ §σ ’σ ·σ ¬σ ³σ Ώπ§΅Last week we spoke at the Plaid conference to share our latest research. This really stood out for me:
Plaid's base has shifted left as it has grown. Among their 2021 voters the median voter put themselves at 5 on a right-left scale, now they're at a 4
New post by me on how and why support for Labour has dropped since the general election, and how the Green by-election win yesterday increases the chances of a Reform majority at the next GE because tactical coordination failure on the left is now more likely.
electionsetc.com/2026/02/27/t...
Thanks to a friend on the coach they waited for him. What a way to start Monday!