"Without a coherent framework, ambiguity risks shifting from a policy tool into an illusion of control: the belief that Indonesia remains firmly in charge in Natuna even as Chinese activities persist with limited pushback." #Indonesia www.9dashline.com/article/the-...
Indonesia may be realizing the drawbacks to Prabowo’s recent charm offensive seeking to ingratiate himself with the Trump administration. I expect we might see some recalibration in coming weeks: www.reuters.com/world/asia-p...
www.cnbc.com/2026/03/03/s...
A number of our allies & partners have provisions in basing agreements & defense cooperation MOUs re: the rotation/stationing of US military. If we start violating the treaties that underpin our worldwide defense diplomacy, allies & partners will hedge by seeking arrangements w/ other countries.
This statement is soo Singapore: "Foreign Minister Vivian Balakrishnan on Friday told parliament that Singapore would not act as a proxy for any major power, stressing that the city state must be prepared to “courteously stand up and say no”." #Singapore www.scmp.com/week-asia/po...
"When the Philippines accepts arrangements that treat China as having operational or legal standing in areas within the Philippine EEZ, it risks contributing to the normalization of Beijing’s nine-dash line narrative." Ping @9dashline.com globalnation.inquirer.net/310987/china...
The pivot to Asia is dead. Long live the pivot to West Asia!
"Singapore enforces Beijing’s technology controls and Washington’s compliance protocols, bending to both sides’ contradictory demands as long as deals keep flowing. The Manus investigation tests whether this tightrope walk is sustainable." www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpre...
“If the United States finds itself in the future with fewer and far less committed friends, it will have no one but itself to blame.” www.cfr.org/articles/wil...
“The real test ahead is whether ASEAN can translate its principled non‑recognition into a more politically astute strategy of conditional engagement that alleviates civilian suffering without rewarding the Myanmar junta’s impunity.” Useful ideas @sharonseah.bsky.social: fulcrum.sg/beyond-non-r...
The pivot to Asia is dead. Great power rivalry has shifted to the realms of energy & technology rather than that of hard power. And US foreign policy is reactive and driven by domestic politics rather than visionary or strategic.
Despite recent wins, I argue @lowyinstitute.bsky.social Labor's Southeast Asia strategy risks imbalance if #Australia's economic footprint can't keep pace with its security/defence partnerships. Thank you @danielflitton.bsky.social for the opportunity to share! www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpre...
People to people ties is one dimension I definitely could have highlighted more, and would go a long way towards explaining why Australia consistently polls lower on influence indexes than it arguably should.
I was asked to lead a Southeast Asia team in government once and laughed at my boss who said ‘we’ve rediscovered Asia, so you’ll have resources.’ I’d heard that before. Government is invested now, but we shouldn’t conflate strong official ties with depth where it counts: people and economies.
Despite recent wins, I argue @lowyinstitute.bsky.social Labor's Southeast Asia strategy risks imbalance if #Australia's economic footprint can't keep pace with its security/defence partnerships. Thank you @danielflitton.bsky.social for the opportunity to share! www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpre...
A really fantastic discussion by my La Trobe Asia colleagues @nickbisley.bsky.social @becstrating.bsky.social on Trump's Asia strategy (or if he has one) @latrobeuni.bsky.social. Give it a listen! soundcloud.com/asia-rising/...
"For Indonesia, the expectation is that Australia will act as a dependable security partner, even under Washington’s pressure, and that engagement will support Jakarta’s strategic autonomy beyond defence." www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpre...
Indonesia prepares to send up to 8,000 troops to Gaza as part of Trump plan www.theguardian.com/world/2026/f...
"In 2026, ASEAN’s trajectory will hinge on how effectively it addresses internal fractures while positioning itself as a meaningful actor on the global stage," writes Abdual Rahman Yaacob @eastasiaforum.bsky.social: eastasiaforum.org/2026/02/09/r...
"Mr. Lam is at this point known for being neither doctrinaire nor charismatic. He is charming in small groups. He is willing to take big risks while keeping his full intentions hidden." Fascinating profile of To Lam by @damiencave.bsky.social & Tung Ngo @nytimes.com: www.nytimes.com/2026/02/09/w...
Trump has imposed sanctions on 8 ICC judges and 3 prosecutors. “The sanctioned ICC staff,” Reuters noted, “now sit on the U.S. Treasury Department’s Specially Designated Nationals list, alongside suspected al Qaeda terrorists, Mexican drug traffickers and North Korean arms dealers.” wapo.st/3MsWi3c
It’s a loyalty test. It’s always a loyalty test. And every time Republicans feign ignorance or hem and haw, it gives him the green light to go even further.
Friday nights are a little different these days.
"Marston said he believes this single-minded attention to the trade dispute risks eroding trust [and] upending the extraordinary progress in bilateral relations which brought the United States and Vietnam to the level of a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership [in 2023]." www.upi.com/Top_News/Wor...
"A.I. social media ought to be thought of more as a form of science fiction and storytelling rather than as a demonstration of collective planning and coordination by intelligent parties. We need to be serious about separating the fiction from the software." www.nytimes.com/2026/02/03/o...
“The Vietnamese are going to be confused by the Trump administration, which has downplayed human rights and democracy promotion, but at the same time been willing to violate the sovereignty of states and remove leaders they don’t like," according to Zach Abuza.
