The poll is a 7.5% swing from the election. Assuming a uniform swing at that level Labour would pick up Banks Peninsula, Hutt South, Mt Roskill, Wairarapa, Waitakere, Wellington Bays, West Coast-Tasman and probably a few of the MΔori seats (those are much harder to predict on this basis).
I've uploaded the Taxpayer's Union-Curia poll to The Progress Report, so you can use our tools to see exactly who would get elected to Parliament. theprogressreport.co.nz/mmp-calculat... #nzpol
Really good discussion here about the upcoming South Australian election - particularly about some of the consequences on the total ban on political donations and how that's shaping the campaign. youtu.be/I5RSVSygnJs?...
Look I know this is very niche, but a newly elected local board member is proposing devolving their funding and projects even further. Lower than a local board. Which just seems nuts. #nzpol www.nzherald.co.nz/rotorua-dail...
Taking the second seat on the Rotorua Lakes Community Board was local security business manager and Chief of the Tarawera Volunteer Fire Brigade, George Gilmour, who picked up 21.2% of the vote. Well done George! theprogressreport.co.nz/candidates/6...
Lastly a byelection to fill 2 vacancies on the Rotorua Lakes Community Board which had 24% turnout. The highest polling candidate was recent chair of the Lake ΕkΔreka Community Association, Mitch Collins. He won his seat with 25.8% of the vote. Well done Mitch theprogressreport.co.nz/candidates/6...
Next we have the byelection to fill the Twizel Community Board of the Mackenzie District Council. Local nurse Zoe White had a massive victory with 59.8% of the vote (with 3 opponents!) and 35% turnout. Well done Zoe! theprogressreport.co.nz/candidates/8...
Another southern byelection, this time to fill the Εraka Aparima Community Board of the Southland District Council. Riverton local (and former Aparima College Head Body) Don Frew won with 54% of the vote and an outstand 39.4% turnout. Great result Don. theprogressreport.co.nz/candidates/8...
Next we have byelection to fill the Mataura Community Board of the Gore District Council. Retired freezing worker Neil Sinclair won with 56.1% of the vote and 30.2% turnout. Well done Neil. theprogressreport.co.nz/candidates/6...
First up was the byelection for the Vincent Ward of the Central Otago District Council. Local vet Andrew Dowling won with 40.6% of the vote and a very healthy 36.4% turnout. Congratulations Andrew. theprogressreport.co.nz/candidates/6...
The final results are in for yesterday's five local government Super Tuesday byelections. A bit of a 𧡠with the results... π§΅
These all come from positions that were unfilled at the 2025 local government elections. Also - it's notoriously difficult to keep track of these, so it's entirely possible there are a few races I'm unaware of - please let me know if I've missed any!
These are races for the Vincent Ward (Central Otago District), Twizel Community Board (Mackenzie District), Εraka Aparima Community Board (Southland District), Mataura Community Board (Gore District) and the Rotorua Lakes Community Board (Rotorua Lakes District).
I hope everyone else is as excited as me for #nzpol Super Tuesday! We have 5 byelections closing at midday - with most of them expecting final results tomorrow. The candidates and race details are already up on The Progress Report. theprogressreport.co.nz/politician-l...
Thank you! Please let me know if there are any other data points you'd like to see.
You can view them all at the link below. Please let me know if there are any other census data points you'd like to see on them. theprogressreport.co.nz/electorates/
I've finally gotten around to extrapolating the 2023 NZ census data out to the new electorate boundaries - and added selected stats to my electorate profiles. Pretty happy with how they've come out! #nzpol
Progressive Texas organisers hail shock win as far-right Republicans left reeling
www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026...
And by my count there were a total of 44 people who contested both those elections at the different levels of government!
I've finished adding quite a bit of extra data into my database, the full election results from the 2014 general election and 2022 local government election. #nzpol theprogressreport.co.nz/politician-l...
I have to say I disagree - I think it's important that candidates can communicate with voters and tell them their plans or the risks in their opponents plans. BUT I do strongly support significant donation reform as well as truth in advertising laws (South Australia has both and it works very well).
And I'm always open to feedback! Love to hear new ideas.
You can see the full politician database here: theprogressreport.co.nz/politician-l...
Just rolled out a handy new feature to my database - on any person's profile under their election results you can now click on "See full results" and it will take you to a page to see everyone else who contested that election and how they did. #nzpol
I've also built a BlueSky list of NZ MPs: bsky.app/profile/did:...
You could check out the NZ Politician list that @theprogressreport.co.nz maintains. It includes social media handles including B'sky.
#NZpol
theprogressreport.co.nz/politician-l...
Next up on Labour's list are Dan Rosewarne then Naisi Chen. I'd be shocked if one of those two didn't take up the vacancy.
More big news from Labour - seems they will have a huge amount of new energy coming in at the election. #nzpol www.thepost.co.nz/politics/360...
Fun fact: 2023 Freedoms NZ candidate for Panmure-ΕtΔhuhu, Karl Mokaraka, is standing for the Papatoetoe Subdivision Election. He got 1.3% of the vote in 2023 - will be interesting to see how he does here! theprogressreport.co.nz/candidates/4...
There may be other upcoming elections (to fill vacancies where there weren't enough candidates at the 2025 local government elections) - if you are aware of any, please let me know. Wish the Electoral Commission did all this centrally!
