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Tim Duffy

@timfduffy.com

I like utilitarianism, consciousness, AI, EA, space, kindness, liberalism, longtermism, progressive rock, economics, and most people. Substack: http://timfduffy.substack.com

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Latest posts by Tim Duffy @timfduffy.com

The smallest image models I know of are the Stable Diffusion Models, ~1B parameters for something like ~3 GB when including the VAE/text encoder. I'm surprised there hasn't been significant progress on how small a coherent image model can be since then.

07.03.2026 01:53 ๐Ÿ‘ 5 ๐Ÿ” 1 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

Welcome to the part of Bluesky that takes AI seriously! Here are a couple starter packs for serious AI discussion on Bluesky if you want to find more:

bsky.app/starter-pack...
bsky.app/starter-pack...

06.03.2026 23:05 ๐Ÿ‘ 0 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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Her piece does talk about how it loses meaning at long lengths:

05.03.2026 22:48 ๐Ÿ‘ 1 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

The circle packing in circle page dates to 1999.

04.03.2026 21:57 ๐Ÿ‘ 1 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

This site has been around a very long time, I remember first finding it over a decade ago.

04.03.2026 21:57 ๐Ÿ‘ 1 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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1T seems possible a few years hence, the largest companies by revenue today are Walmart and Amazon each at 2/3 of a trillion. 1T is also less than 1% of world GDP. But this requires speculating beyond three years which is problematic.

04.03.2026 20:43 ๐Ÿ‘ 8 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 2 ๐Ÿ“Œ 1

yeah, surprisingly weak relationship between water % and how wet they seem

04.03.2026 20:38 ๐Ÿ‘ 5 ๐Ÿ” 1 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

Same! I remember learning watermelons were ~92% water as a kid and assuming that other fruits must be so much lower.

04.03.2026 20:37 ๐Ÿ‘ 5 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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Many fruits and veg are surprisingly high % water

04.03.2026 20:35 ๐Ÿ‘ 5 ๐Ÿ” 1 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

I agreed with Dario at the time, and still do. It's good to be cautious on account of the known unknown of future growth. But the unknown unknowns like the supply chain risk thing makes not overextending yourself look even better.

04.03.2026 20:31 ๐Ÿ‘ 5 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

yup

04.03.2026 16:45 ๐Ÿ‘ 5 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

A couple reasons:
-It's a good indicator of capabilities progress, more useful than benchmarks IMO, and I'm more worried about all types of risk in a world where AI capabilities progress is very rapid.
-More revenue is itself one of the drivers of infrastructure spend which drives further progress.

04.03.2026 16:30 ๐Ÿ‘ 6 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

At their current 10x/year growth rate, they should automate all labor in about 3.5 years.

04.03.2026 16:27 ๐Ÿ‘ 10 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1 ๐Ÿ“Œ 1
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Anthropic revenue growth is terrifyingly fast www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

04.03.2026 00:52 ๐Ÿ‘ 116 ๐Ÿ” 8 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 7 ๐Ÿ“Œ 10
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03.03.2026 23:44 ๐Ÿ‘ 4 ๐Ÿ” 1 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
Preview
Ara Kharazian on X: "Most people in tech know Anthropic commands the majority of API spend by U.S. businesses. As of January, Anthropic took >50% of spend on enterprise AI subscriptions too. OpenAI still leads on business count. But the biggest spenders go to Anthropic. All from Ramp data. https://t.co/829Wyutj3O" / X Most people in tech know Anthropic commands the majority of API spend by U.S. businesses. As of January, Anthropic took >50% of spend on enterprise AI subscriptions too. OpenAI still leads on business count. But the biggest spenders go to Anthropic. All from Ramp data. https://t.co/829Wyutj3O

Subscription data! x.com/arakharazian...

03.03.2026 23:44 ๐Ÿ‘ 3 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

These are four particularly good long reads on the topic of military software provisioning from the past few days.

www.hyperdimensional.co/p/clawed
thezvi.substack.com/p/secretary-...
jessicatillipman.com/what-rights-...
www.astralcodexten.com/p/all-lawful...

03.03.2026 19:11 ๐Ÿ‘ 51 ๐Ÿ” 9 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 4 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

TBH I'm not sure and it's possible it's speculation. Lin was an open source champion, and many people on X are suggesting that the firing is a shift toward further commercialization. I'm not so sure myself though.

03.03.2026 19:59 ๐Ÿ‘ 2 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

Targeting daily active users as the key metric you want more of

03.03.2026 19:29 ๐Ÿ‘ 2 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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Some more context on Lin, via SCMP's Vincent Chow: x.com/vince_chow1/...

03.03.2026 18:29 ๐Ÿ‘ 23 ๐Ÿ” 2 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 1

TBC I'm not sure about all the claims in this post, like the claim that it's about DAUmaxxing.

03.03.2026 18:23 ๐Ÿ‘ 8 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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Some drama at Qwen today. Junyang Lin has been replaced, and at least one Qwen employee claims to be quitting in response. I've seen several employees tweet something of the form "Qwen is nothing without its people". x.com/Xinyu2ML/sta...

03.03.2026 18:21 ๐Ÿ‘ 58 ๐Ÿ” 2 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 2 ๐Ÿ“Œ 4

One thing I can say though is that I'm glad this discussion is happening, and that it's happening out in the open. I have lots of respect for the folks at OpenAI who have been sharing their perspectives the last few days.

03.03.2026 17:31 ๐Ÿ‘ 11 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

I find the OpenAI/DoD stuff hard to reason about. It activates my political tribalism and my feelings about the labs and their leaders. And the specifics of contract language seem crucial and aren't something I'm used to thinking about.

03.03.2026 17:31 ๐Ÿ‘ 30 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 5 ๐Ÿ“Œ 1

Great shots! the only waxwing I've seen is the cedar waxwing, glad to see there are other waxwings halfway around the world.

03.03.2026 16:59 ๐Ÿ‘ 2 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
Captain Beefheart - Her Eyes Are A Blue Million Miles
Captain Beefheart - Her Eyes Are A Blue Million Miles YouTube video by Revanlation

Most Captain Beefheart is too weird for me but I really like this song: www.youtube.com/watch?v=MRlW...

03.03.2026 01:08 ๐Ÿ‘ 1 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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Interesting album choices scaruffi.com/music/best10...

03.03.2026 00:57 ๐Ÿ‘ 3 ๐Ÿ” 1 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 2 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

Note that this is just API spend, not all enterprise, and Ramp users may not be representative. But my impression is indeed that Anthropic does have more enterprise revenue than OpenAI.

02.03.2026 22:27 ๐Ÿ‘ 4 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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Fortunately you can choose to label humans as part of the anthropogenic mass

02.03.2026 22:16 ๐Ÿ‘ 3 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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One important bit is that there's precedent for a preliminary injunction

02.03.2026 20:23 ๐Ÿ‘ 8 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0