David Coveney

I was a keen Aldus Photostyler user back in the distant past.

Whoever chose Look Mum No Computer is someone who actually gets Eurovision. Fantastic.

What I will give you is that there are some insanely complex and risky forms of derivatives which hide risks that are often socialised. It's a bit like nested company ownership schemes to try and hide beneficiaries.

Because derivatives aren't really a thing you can ban. A five pound note is a derivative.

You're not getting the definition of the word itself in finance terms.

It's not rocket science but it's definitely economics. And you can't guarantee a farmer a living. What if they're inept?

Originally we were talking about a brewery - the kind of firm that, funnily enough, likes to guarantee the future price of grain through derivatives so that they can plan properly.

These forms of contracts long predate capitalism, and trading in formal markets started in Japan in what? 17C?

Hahah. No!

I think narcissism tends to be an emergent quality in people rather than something you're born with.

I've no desire to be mean to people. She's intelligent, but ambitious. However, I feel she's not being true to herself in her aim to succeed and I think it's a shame. She could be so much better.

I've actually worked with her! She's very confident in how she comes across but I honestly think that like a lot of driven people there's an underlying insecurity. I think it's why she keeps saying things a lot of observers think mad... she's trying to get approval.

I mean, you're down to about 6% of the population at that point, and from my early readings of psychology about 20% of most populations will be pretty mentally unhealthy... so we're just finding the least sound people and being surprised they're awful.

Facebook is quite... down right now.

I'm not here to defend predatory speculation, but I don't think revolution is sensible either when oversight and regulation are going to keep the benefits whilst cutting back on the broader risk.

Not that governments are always great at this, but they're not great at setting price floors either.

We could of course enter into a broader discussion of human ethics - why sometimes it goes awry and how to mitigate that inside of markets through regulation. A way of managing how risky people can get. That way you don't, as I've said before, throw the baby out with the bathwater.

That’s the 'Why' of derivatives. They allow thousands of private actors to absorb and trade that risk amongst themselves. When you ban the instrument, the risk doesn't disappear - it just becomes a massive, unmanaged liability for the taxpayer.

My question then is a logistical one: if the world price of grain crashes below your mandated floor, the government is then legally obligated to buy the surplus. Where do they store it? Who pays for the silos? And who pays for the billions in losses when that grain rots or is sold at a loss?

It isn’t prejudice, Robert. It’s an observation of how risk is distributed. If the government mandates a minimum price for agricultural goods regardless of market value, they are essentially writing a 'Put Option' (a derivative) for the entire industry.

Like a command economy?

This. I realised that whilst I run @designweek.co.uk I'm also, originally, a software developer and the sources that I feel can support us just aren't there. At best we have The Register, but that's rather more IT than software design. So I'll make more space for software design in Design Week.

A derivative is just something which derives a value from something else. A contract to buy is just that. Its value will drop or rise if the thing you're buying goes up or down in value. You can sell that contract. That is derivatives trading.

What, fundamentally, is wrong with that?

I'm happy to be given a different understanding as to why such instruments work.

When I was young and had time on my hands I realised that if I didn't understand how money worked I'd have fewer opportunities in life.

So I learned.

You can't demand a ban without a workable alternative.

I'd just like to add, however, that I stayed because uprooting kids to a different country is tough and disruptive. So I stayed for that. I'd like to think we could all leave soon but business has been miserable since Covid.

I hope as Tommy Robinson flees Dubai he settles in the first safe country he arrives in

And? Do you get my point? There's evidence of derivatives going back to 2000BC. It predates capitalism. You can then sell your contract to another business. It would be insane not to be able to do so. And that gives space for speculators as any market does.

It is. I wish I lived in the south of France or Spain, honestly. Every time I'm getting soaked in the dark in this country I question my life choices. Should have sold up and left right after Brexit and regret not doing so.

As someone further north I'd prefer to wait a little. It's quite hard getting kids up for school in the dark.

And what would the mechanism for that be?

A contract?

We also had a vastly larger proportion of the population dying hungry and a much worse nutrition.

If a farmer doesn't know what they'll make for the food they grow, they grow less.

It's really important to separate the speculators from the instruments or you throw the baby out with the bathwater.

Well, derivatives aren't really that complex, by and large. All a future is, is a guaranteed future price for something, and you can sell that promise to somebody else like you can any other contract.

The primary purpose of most derivatives is insurance. Some may gamble on them.

That would wipe out so many supply businesses like farmers.

The only way to genuinely beat Reform is to work very hard to improve people’s lives. Most people - even Reform voters- are don’t wish ill on fellow humans, they just want their own lives to improve. Reform is thriving on 16 years of standards of living sliding backwards out of control