OpenAI Is Hiring a Threat Modeler to "Own" Its Catastrophic Risk Framework A new job listing from OpenAI's Preparedness team signals the company is formalizing its modeling approach to frontier AI risk.

OpenAI is hiring a Threat Modeler to "own" its catastrophic risk framework — $325K to identify, model, and forecast frontier AI risks across bio, cyber, CBRN, and autonomous replication threats.
www.riskmarketnews.com/openai-is-hi...

$1 rise in modeled expected loss → $5 in higher premiums.
New research from Ben Collier and other researchers traces 20 years of Florida cat model outputs to insurer rate filings. The results surprised the researchers.
Latest Risky Science Podcast 🎧 pod.link/1825669405/e...

Georgia Joins Chorus of State Proposals Targeting Catastrophe Model Transparency If passed, the bill could have significant implications for how risk is priced in one of the Southeast's most exposed markets.

Cat model disclosure, actuarial justification requirements, ZIP-code loss data, and policyholder risk score appeals — Georgia's SB 585 is one of the more detailed state transparency bills yet. www.riskmarketnews.com/georgia-join...

TWIA Makes a $4.3 Billion Hurricane Bet As Models Diverge and Tail Risk Mounts When Texas rewrote the rules on how much hurricane risk its coastal insurer of last resort must fund against, it also quietly transferred the portion it stopped covering.

Texas's coastal insurer set its hurricane funding ceiling at $4.3B last week. Its own modeling consultant said if a storm hits that threshold, the average loss will be $9.5B.
www.riskmarketnews.com/twia-makes-a...

Catastrophe Models at a Crossroads as Insurers Rethink Data, Pricing and Risk: Survey A new report finds insurers are moving beyond historically calibrated catastrophe models toward layered analytics and shorter-horizon scenarios, as rising physical risk forces deeper integration into ...

A new MSCI Institute report finds insurers are shifting from historically calibrated models to “layered intelligence”: geospatial analytics, localized hazard data, and shorter-horizon (to 2030) scenarios.
www.riskmarketnews.com/catastrophe-...

Berkshire's Abel Says Energy Holdings Can't Be a "Deep Pocket" For Growing Wildfire Risk In his first shareholder letter, Berkshire CEO Greg Abel draws a firm line on wildfire liability for energy holdings, even as Berkshire's own insurance operations absorbed nearly $1.8 billion in under...

Berkshire's new CEO Greg Abel on wildfire risk: PacifiCorp will own what it owes — but it's "not an insurer of last resort."
www.riskmarketnews.com/berkshires-a...

Anthropic Says AI Has a Catastrophic "Collective Action" Problem Anthropic has rewritten its flagship safety framework to acknowledge that no single AI developer can unilaterally prevent catastrophe — and to explain what it will and won't commit to doing alone.

Anthropic rewrote its AI safety framework and the core message is blunt: no single developer can unilaterally prevent catastrophic AI risk.

Full breakdown at Risk Market News ⬇️
www.riskmarketnews.com/anthropic-sa...

The industry where AI should be most valuable is one of the slowest to adopt it. Professor Daniel Schwarcz of the University of Minnesota Law School breaks down what's keeping the insurance industry cautious.
🎧 pod.link/1825669405
#Insurance #ArtificialIntelligence #Insurtech #RiskyScience

Trump's Climate Supercomputer Plans Threaten US Insurance Market: Actuaries A new letter from the American Academy of Actuaries draws a direct line between the planned dismantling of NCAR and higher homeowners insurance costs for US consumers.

The American Academy of Actuaries warns that dismantling NCAR would degrade the catastrophe models insurers depend on to price climate risk—driving up premiums and threatening coverage availability nationwide.
"Uncertainty carries a positive cost."
www.riskmarketnews.com/trumps-clima...

On Risky Science, Daniel Reti (Exona Lab) argues AI risk looks less like cyber and more like structured tail exposure — closer to product liability with nonlinear downside.
pod.link/1825669405

One advantage of prediction markets over parametric insurance: efficiency.
With insurance, you’re paying for the risk and the insurer’s overhead.
We talk about what this could mean for hedging hurricane risk on the latest Risky Science Podcast.
🎧 pod.link/1825669405/e...

Former White House Cyber Official Proposes Catastrophe Bonds to Address China Infrastructure Threats A former NSC cyber told lawmakers that critical infrastructure operators should be required to purchase catastrophic insurance coverage as Chinese-manufactured components dominate 93% of global transp...

Former White House cyber official proposes catastrophe bonds for critical infrastructure operators—treating "data spills like oil spills"—as hearing reveals Chinese components dominate 93% of transportation sensors at U.S. airports and toll systems. www.riskmarketnews.com/former-white...

Risk Market Signals, Jan. 25 2026 This week: storms vs. rail, prediction markets meet insurance, copper’s flood shock, and the new math of catastrophe volatility.

Sunday Risk Signals is live.
This week:
Storms vs. rail + supply chain
Prediction markets meet insurance
Copper flood fallout
Cat volatility + reinsurance attachment math
www.riskmarketnews.com/risk-market-...

Colorado Debating Pine Beetle/Wildfire Modeling Project to Battle “Decade-Scale” Insurance Risk Staff for Colorado lawmakers are pushing back on a $300,000 Colorado Division of Insurance request to model how the state’s expanding mountain pine beetle outbreak could worsen wildfire risk scores an...

Colorado lawmakers are pushing back on a $300K Colorado DOI plan to model how the mountain pine beetle outbreak could change wildfire risk scores and hit homeowners insurance affordability.
www.riskmarketnews.com/colorado-deb...
#insurance #wildfire #catmodeling #reinsurance #risk

Aon Calls Out “Blind Spot” Hampering Quake Models Aon warns that earthquake catastrophe models still underestimate the loss potential from long-distance seismic waves.

Aon flags a quake modeling “blind spot”: long-distance seismic waves that cause moderate but sustained shaking and can still drive meaningful insured loss far from the fault.
www.riskmarketnews.com/aon-calls-ou...

Future of U.S. Weather Satellite Systems Now Hinges on “Warfighting” Pentagon and NOAA officials warned lawmakers that proposed cuts to U.S. weather satellite programs could quickly degrade warfighting readiness.

NOAA’s weather satellite data pipeline is being framed as “warfighting” infrastructure in Congress, officials warned disruptions could immediately degrade military ops.
It is also the observation layer behind cat models insurance pricing confidence.
www.riskmarketnews.com/future-of-us...

How Venezuela’s Political Fate Played Out In an Insurance, Oil Industry Legal Battle A Lloyd’s-backed insurance lawsuit over Venezuelan crude reveals how modern sovereign risk is increasingly migrating onto insurers’ and investors’ balance sheets.

A stranded Venezuelan oil cargo became a test case for modern war-risk insurance—forcing courts to weigh regime legitimacy, political violence, and who pays when sovereign order breaks down.
Here’s why CITGO v. Ascot matters for insurers and markets 👇
www.riskmarketnews.com/how-venezuel...

California Launches First-of-Its-Kind AI Catastrophic Risk Disclosure Regime California has begun enforcing its landmark AI safety law, requiring developers of the most powerful models to publicly disclose how they identify and manage catastrophic risks ranging from mass harm ...

California has begun enforcing its landmark AI safety law.
Under SB 53, developers of frontier AI models must disclose how they manage “catastrophic risks,” from mass harm to loss of human control.
www.riskmarketnews.com/california-l...

Research Argues More Hurricane Models Means Higher Premiums Disagreement among approved hurricane models, not higher expected losses alone, is pushing Florida homeowners insurance premiums higher, according to new regulator research.

New regulatory research finds that model disagreement -- not just higher losses—raises homeowners premiums.
In Florida, more dispersion across hurricane models = higher prices, even after controls.
Less uncertainty could cut premiums $50–$90/year.
www.riskmarketnews.com/research-arg...

Report Urges National Technology Effort as Wildfire Risk Outpaces Current Systems A new report warns that wildfire losses are outpacing current risk-management systems, urging a coordinated national effort to move technologies from pilot to scale.

Wildfire losses are outpacing current risk-management systems.
A new RAND report urges a national public-private technology effort to move wildfire detection and mitigation tools from pilot to scale—and break the system’s suppression bias.
www.riskmarketnews.com/report-urges...

New Legislation Seeks to Force More Florida Residential and Commercial Policies Out of Citizens The Trump-aligned lawmaker’s proposal would accelerate Florida’s ongoing push to shift insurance risk into the private market.

Florida’s push to shrink Citizens Property Insurance Corporation is entering a new phase. A proposal would use clearinghouses + “higher-of-two” pricing to force risk back into the private market.
www.riskmarketnews.com/new-legislat...

On this week’s Risky Science Podcast, Dr. Phillip Mulder of the University of Wisconsin breaks down the rising pressures inside the U.S. homeowners insurance system and what the research defines as “reinsurance shock.”
pod.link/1825669405/e...

📅 Register today: On January 8, 2026 @ 1 p.m. EST, join the Risky Science Podcast Live “Cyber Risk in 2026: Modeling, Market Dynamics & Systemic Stress”, hosted by Risk Market News. The session featuring Morgan Hervé‑Mignucci (Head of Risk Modeling at Coalition)
tinyurl.com/3z44nbna

California Warns Landslide Modeling Still Urgently Needed California says even as its wildfire aid request shrinks, federal funding for landslide hazard mapping and modeling remains critical to preventing further losses across Los Angeles County.

California cut its wildfire aid request, but says post-fire landslides will threaten LA for 5 years.
Funding for hazard mapping + early warnings.
📊 Full article: www.riskmarketnews.com/california-w...

Swiss Re Wants to Turn Risk Capital Lemons Into Risk Services Lemonade One of the world’s largest risk-capacity providers wants to pivot toward risk-intelligence services. But investors still have questions.

Swiss Re: balance sheet cleaned, now the risk services button is pushed.
“Built to lead” now means selling knowledge, not capacity.
New RMN analysis 👇
www.riskmarketnews.com/swiss-re-wan...
#insurance #reinsurance

New Year, new moves: The Risky Science Podcast will start monthly live podcast discussions, opening up for audience questions on risk, markets and models.
First up is a big, juicy top: measuring, modeling and pricing cyber risk.
Register today tinyurl.com/mt8hs773

Conservative Group Calls on Federal Agencies to “Renounce” First Street Flood Models Weeks after launching a “woke alter”against insurer Chubb the same group has turned its sights on First Street and its flood risk models.

Wrote in October about a conservative group (with deep ties to the Adminstration) targeting First Street and insurers over climate pricing. It seems part of a broader, coordinated effort . www.riskmarketnews.com/conservative...

Climate Groups Urge Hawaii to Release Public Insurance Data, Create Public Risk Model Hawaii climate and consumer advocates are urging state regulators to open insurance data and public modeling access as part of a sweeping push to stabilize the state’s property insurance market.

A coalition—including Public Citizen, NRDC, Ceres & AFR—is urging Hawaii’ insurance regulator to open insurance data + public modeling and coordinate with researchers + other states.
www.riskmarketnews.com/climate-grou...
#insurance #riskmodeling #climaterisk #Hawaii

2025 Hurricane Season Marked by Peak-Season Lull and “Extremely Benign” U.S. Impacts A stronger-than-normal 2025 Atlantic season delivered an unprecedented peak-season shutdown and almost no U.S. losses.

2025 delivered one of the strangest Atlantic seasons on record: above-normal ACE, a total peak-season shutdown, and what CSU calls an “extremely benign” year for U.S. impacts.
Only one U.S. landfalling TS—despite 133 ACE.
www.riskmarketnews.com/2025-hurrica...

New Risky Science Podcast: Pandemics and the Limits of Securitization
Dr. Susan Erikson talks about modelers, finance structures, and ILS in her fieldwork research on pandemic catastrophe bonds that resulted in the book Investible!. pod.link/1825669405/e...