Westminster is dangerously underprepared for a multi-party future.
Responsible and farsighted leadership would mean recognising the Gorton and Denton by-election as a warning.
Read our full comment here:
www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/comment/gort...
If this holds it will be the first time FDP are not in the Landtag, It's also the worst result ever for the SPD and actually even worse than the polls were showing for them. Within expectations for AfD, slightly on the lower end. Also disappointing for Linke if they don't make it into the Landtag.
Almost certainly will be a continuation of the CDU+Grüne coalition in Baden-Württemberg as expected but remains to be seen which if then will be the largest party.
CDU had been leading in the polls for a while but Grüne was gaining during the campaign and they may well have pulled it off now
This is something I've been getting now in the past year and I really didn't ask for it!
Love waking up super anxious and on edge for no reason, haha yes
I know it's not the most important thing but the fact that they just think it's just cool to have a makeshift situation room in Mar-a-Lago cause he prefers it to DC or something and that he wears that stupid fucking hat while he does this; it just all pisses me off so much
Which I don't think is likely to be successful, Iran have obviously already retaliated which didn't meaningfully happen with Venezuela. New leadership may be even more hardline and may continue the retaliation for some time — and obviously there's many other unknowns for now.
I do wonder if Trump thinks he can pull a Venezuela here and just do a leadership change, claim victory and pull out with not much really changing.
need to be clear that by keeping Starmer until May even though almost all of them know he's not up to it, Labour MPs are basically sacrificing hundreds of councillors and dozens of councils on the altar of their own inertia and ineptitude
I'm old enough to remember when the Tories winning the Uxbridge by-election by 700 votes or whatever it was clearly meant the government had to stop doing green stuff
@martamiori.bsky.social and I have been writing, since 2024, about why Labour's 'Reform' challenge and emphasis was based on a misunderstanding of Labour's vote. Here for anyone interested: politicscentre.nuffield.ox.ac.uk/news-and-eve...
I still think that Starmer will inevitably have some kind of change in approach to the Greens with regards to policy priorities and communications — but this is a bizarre way to react to the results and doesn't indicate Starmer really understands what's going on and isn't getting good advice still
3) Don't play dirty. The bizarre claims about the Greens in relation to drugs and sex workers were desperate, embarrassing, and harmful. It is no wonder they did not work and instead reflected badly on our party.
It's kind of plateaued now — don't think it will be enough to get the A+V+M coalition returned in its current form, but probably they will seek to renew some kind of centrist coalition given that the Moderates (who don't belong to either the red or blue bloc) are taking more vote share now
Denmark going a few months early to the polls, clearly for the govt to take advantage of their improved polling following the Greenland crisis
How much of a bounce is it?
Current POLITICO poll average
A: 22% (+4)
V: 11% (-1)
M: 6% (+4)
(Change since 10 Dec 25)
www.theguardian.com/world/live/2...
Honestly whoever wins in G&D (hopefully not Matt Goodwin), none of the main campaigns have really covered themselves in glory.
Obviously Reform has been the worst but just like some of the most desperate stuff coming from both Labour and the Greens and just makes the whole thing kinda depressing.
I do find it an interesting difference that the ALP often doesn't stand in by-elections where it doesn't have a chance but it would be bizarre for UK Labour to ever not run a candidate in a by-election. Idk if it's just diff political culture or if there's more financial cost to it in Aus?
That's not to say it's a panacea for bad campaigns, but it at least shifts focus away from one of the most tiresome aspects of FPTP elections.
Reform likely would not be in contention for this seat if we have preferential voting — Labour and the Greens would have to be having a genuine substantive debate (they are still having this but it's been sidelined in the last few weeks)
Thus, as we have seen, it encourages misleading representation of data to support their claim to be "the tactical vote" and we end up with this war between Labour and Green over whose selectively picked data is more valid.
Voters are either left confused or with only one party's narrative.
For all that the Green Party have talked about making the positive case for their platform — they have shown in Gorton & Denton that they are just as willing as Labour to focus on tactical arguments if they think it will benefit them.
Having a by-election (or indeed any election) boil down to what is the correct tactical vote against a particular party — especially when that choice is unclear — is not good for voters and it's not good for democracy.
It moves the conversation away from being about substance.
Image of a Virginia Democrats' proposed congressional map that is drawn to elect a ten-to-one Democratic majority and flip four Republican seats in 2026. The district lines are displayed over top of a basemap with major roads and cities labeled. The districts are colored by the 2024 presidential winner's margin of victory, with Kamala Harris districts in blue and Donald Trump districts in red. Darker shades represent larger margins of victory. An embedded chart shows the 2024 presidential election results and the adult population racial demographics in each district. Kamala Harris won 10 of the 11 districts, while Black voters would retain their ability to elect their preferred candidates in Districts 3 and 4, which remain safely Democratic.
NEW: Virginia Dem legislators have passed their new 10-1 congressional map targeting 4 Republicans. Gov. Spanberger will likely sign it soon.
It would take effect for 2026 if voters pass it in an April 21 referendum (litigation pending).
Interactive map+data: davesredistricting.org/join/8560023...
With 265 respondents giving a VI this is not "distant third" it's within MoE, it's essentially a three way tie.
In fact, even just taking the numbers at face value I don't think you could reasonably call a 7 point margin "distant".
We should try electing some kind of deliberative body that makes decisions about levying taxes.
Ironic indeed, though they could've done it if they hadn't wasted time with the stupid proposal to have the govt decide after the election whether it would be a three or four year term with a trade off over select committee power. Just do it properly or don't bother!
www.rnz.co.nz/news/politic...
Labour minister falsely linked journalists to ‘pro-Kremlin’ network in emails to GCHQ
The Bondi massacre definitely has been weaponised by those who are against multiculturalism, but you look at the AES last year and views had already shifted harshly to right.
The government desperately needs to loudly make the case for multicultural Australia.
bsky.app/profile/conr...
Like Garth Hamilton when pressed about whether it was about "too many Mulsims\Indian people etc." was basically like "yeh it is", they're not even afraid to admit it anymore — and remember this is the country that not as long ago as you probably think had a "white Australia" policy
Good lay of the land as to where the Australian right is atm. I find it striking how similar the situation has become to the UK — most shockingly how many Coalition MPs are embracing not just anti-multicultural views but borderline ethnonationlist views
www.youtube.com/watch?v=rlGH...
