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Mark Kamstra

@markkamstra.com

Economist, econometrician, empirical finance focused, photographer.

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09.09.2023
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Latest posts by Mark Kamstra @markkamstra.com

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Ending seasonal time change could help business, but not enough for universal support TORONTO — There are potential economic benefits to ending seasonal time changes, but not enough for British Columbia’s move to have drawn complete support from the business community. The province’s m...

An interesting article on BC's decision to forgo clock changes twice a year, not just because they quote me ;-)

halifax.citynews.ca/2026/03/03/e...

03.03.2026 21:20 👍 1 🔁 1 💬 0 📌 0

Hearing about new partnerships of Canadian&Indian Universities, sparked by Carney's outreach trip. My b-school tried for 10+ years. Faculty get tired of travelling to India to teach (on load, paid by York), getting $ out of India is not trivial, & there isn't much $ to get out; tuition is low.

01.03.2026 16:55 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

From Gemini: Gulliver or Sir Coos-a-Lot or Pip or (my fav) Radar. BTW, you better get that husband of yours to straighten out the painting on the wall you face!

01.03.2026 16:47 👍 1 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0

So I am in a waiting room at a hospital (I am fine) and everyone is wearing masks, which is a bit of a Xmas miracle (there is a sign requesting it). One guy starts coughing, and lifts his mask (coughing into his elbow, loosely held against his mouth). You can't win some battles.

25.02.2026 12:19 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

Watching "Blue Moon". E.B. White suggests the word "enchanting" to Hart when prompted. Every time I am tempted to say "magical" I'll use some variant of enchanting. I am so tired of people saying "magical". I like this show.

24.02.2026 01:22 👍 1 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

Good analysis and behavioral insights - know yourself. I'd add, homeowners tend to over-spend with upgrade's that are pure consumption (marble panels in the bathroom, new furniture ...) instead of investing in the market. So again, know yourself. Some of us are better off in rentals.

23.02.2026 20:27 👍 1 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
Renting vs. Buying a Home: The Reckoning
Renting vs. Buying a Home: The Reckoning YouTube video by Ben Felix

Watched a video on home ownership vs renting, focused on Canada but generally useful. If you need to live somewhere in particular and you don't like moving, probably you should buy. youtu.be/aU7v87EhDBI?...

23.02.2026 20:25 👍 1 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0

Here we go again with tariffs. Since the $US is the world reserve currency and the currency of settlement for much trade, the world needs $US denominated assets, like cash and Treasuries. So Americans get Porsches and TVs and coffee etc. and the rest of the world gets paper. Who loses? Not USA.

23.02.2026 20:13 👍 2 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

Apparently Viagra (sildenafil ) has been identified as possibly protective against Alzheimer's "Research indicates it may protect nerve cells and reduce the buildup of tau. In mouse studies, sildenafil also improved thinking and memory, possibly by increasing blood flow to the brain." Lucky mice.

19.02.2026 00:45 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

With all these 40+ year old's winning medals in the Olympics, I am wondering if they are getting better or if the youngsters' are getting slower ;-)

17.02.2026 13:56 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
This nighttime view of Toronto's CN Tower has the CN Tower peaking out from behind a condo building, steam drifting across the roof of the condos. The CN Tower glows golden,, both the elevator column and the concrete shaft above the main observation and restaurant deck.

This nighttime view of Toronto's CN Tower has the CN Tower peaking out from behind a condo building, steam drifting across the roof of the condos. The CN Tower glows golden,, both the elevator column and the concrete shaft above the main observation and restaurant deck.

Toronto, celebrating Canada's first gold in Milan.

17.02.2026 02:44 👍 1 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
Preview
CAAT pension plan board chair removed amid ongoing governance emergency Don Smith, the recently suspended chair of the Colleges of Applied Arts and Technology pension plan’s board of trustees, has been removed from his position following allegations of an improper executi...

Wow. The Colleges of Applied Arts and Technology pension plan is a more dynamic than I would have ever guessed.

www.benefitscanada.com/pensions/gov...

10.02.2026 19:30 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
The declining labor force | FRED Blog

Labour force participation is still recovering from the covid shock, about 2/3 in Canada, a little lower in the USA. This is the employed+unemployed (but looking) divided by the population 15 or 16+

tradingeconomics.com/canada/labor...

fredblog.stlouisfed.org/2022/03/the-...

10.02.2026 18:42 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

Continued labour market weakness & corporate profit growth, the impact of AI concentrating wealth outcomes as better trained people lever AI better than others, & growing capital intensity accelerated by AI all make Universal Basic Income more and more inevitable. If social unrest is to be avoided.

10.02.2026 18:28 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0

When I see an "asset" like bitcoin jump up 10% after months of big declines, I think "dead cat bounce".

06.02.2026 16:25 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
A winter scene, in Yorkville, Toronto. This small storefront, next to a subway entrance, is a Toronto institution.

A winter scene, in Yorkville, Toronto. This small storefront, next to a subway entrance, is a Toronto institution.

This gingerbread-like storefront is the Louboutin store in Yorkville Toronto. The eves are white, the walls red, large snowdrifts are piled up on the roof and cornices. Icicles drip off the roof on the right.

This gingerbread-like storefront is the Louboutin store in Yorkville Toronto. The eves are white, the walls red, large snowdrifts are piled up on the roof and cornices. Icicles drip off the roof on the right.

Toronto, last Sunday after the big storm. These are two buildings in Yorkville, Toronto, maybe a block apart. I love Toronto.

31.01.2026 03:46 👍 3 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
"Potential" and the Gender Promotion Gap

Alan Benson
Danielle Li
Kelly Shue

American Economic Review
vol. 116, no. 2, February 2026
(pp. 375–417)

"Potential" and the Gender Promotion Gap Alan Benson Danielle Li Kelly Shue American Economic Review vol. 116, no. 2, February 2026 (pp. 375–417)

Abstract

We show that subjective assessments of employee "potential" contribute to gender gaps in promotion and pay. Using data on 29,809 management-track employees from a large retail chain, we find that women receive substantially lower potential ratings despite receiving higher performance ratings. Differences in potential ratings account for approximately half of the gender promotion gap. Women's lower potential ratings do not reflect accurate forecasts of future performance: Women subsequently outperform male colleagues, both on average and on the margin of promotion. We highlight two mechanisms driving the gender potential gap: strategic retention and stereotyping.

Abstract We show that subjective assessments of employee "potential" contribute to gender gaps in promotion and pay. Using data on 29,809 management-track employees from a large retail chain, we find that women receive substantially lower potential ratings despite receiving higher performance ratings. Differences in potential ratings account for approximately half of the gender promotion gap. Women's lower potential ratings do not reflect accurate forecasts of future performance: Women subsequently outperform male colleagues, both on average and on the margin of promotion. We highlight two mechanisms driving the gender potential gap: strategic retention and stereotyping.

Another important paper, now in print at AER: "Potential" and the Gender Promotion Gap

🎯Subjective assessments of employee "potential" account for about half the gender promotion gap.

🎯 This is despite fact that women go on to outperform their male colleagues.

www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=...

30.01.2026 21:16 👍 13 🔁 7 💬 1 📌 0
Abstract
We assess whether men and women are treated differently when presenting their economics research. We collected data across thousands of seminars, job market talks, and conference presentations, leveraging human judgment and audio-processing algorithms to measure the number, tone, and type of interruptions. Within a seminar series, women are interrupted more than men. This holds when controlling for characteristics of the presenter, paper, and audience. Interruptions that are negative in tenor or tone or cut off the presenter mid-sentence increase for women presenters. We also find greater engagement of female audience members with female presenters, suggesting a potential role model effect.

Abstract We assess whether men and women are treated differently when presenting their economics research. We collected data across thousands of seminars, job market talks, and conference presentations, leveraging human judgment and audio-processing algorithms to measure the number, tone, and type of interruptions. Within a seminar series, women are interrupted more than men. This holds when controlling for characteristics of the presenter, paper, and audience. Interruptions that are negative in tenor or tone or cut off the presenter mid-sentence increase for women presenters. We also find greater engagement of female audience members with female presenters, suggesting a potential role model effect.

Gender Differences in Economics Seminars

Pascaline Dupas
Amy Handlan
Alicia Sasser Modestino
Muriel Niederle
Mateo Seré
Haoyu Sheng
Justin Wolfers
Seminar Dynamics Collective

American Economic Review
vol. 116, no. 2, February 2026
(pp. 749–89)

Gender Differences in Economics Seminars Pascaline Dupas Amy Handlan Alicia Sasser Modestino Muriel Niederle Mateo Seré Haoyu Sheng Justin Wolfers Seminar Dynamics Collective American Economic Review vol. 116, no. 2, February 2026 (pp. 749–89)

Important paper alert, now in print at AER: "Gender Differences in Economics Seminars"

🎯 "Within a seminar series, women are interrupted more than men."

🎯 Women experience more "Interruptions that are negative in tenor or tone or cut off the presenter mid-sentence".

www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=...

30.01.2026 21:10 👍 9 🔁 3 💬 1 📌 0
A winter scene, in Yorkville, Toronto. A sidewalk is being cleared on fresh snow by a man running a snow blower, with a wide and high snowbank separating the walk from the road, itself even more deeply covered by snow. Snow globe lights illuminate the walk and road.

A winter scene, in Yorkville, Toronto. A sidewalk is being cleared on fresh snow by a man running a snow blower, with a wide and high snowbank separating the walk from the road, itself even more deeply covered by snow. Snow globe lights illuminate the walk and road.

A winter scene, in Yorkville, Toronto. The foreground is dominated by a snow-covered intersection. On the left is Cafe Nervosa, and in the middle is a single man is shoveling to make a break in the snow bank separating the sidewalk from the road.

A winter scene, in Yorkville, Toronto. The foreground is dominated by a snow-covered intersection. On the left is Cafe Nervosa, and in the middle is a single man is shoveling to make a break in the snow bank separating the sidewalk from the road.

The cleanup in Toronto from last weekend's storm is not finished. It started well before the last few flakes had fallen, late on Sunday night.

31.01.2026 03:33 👍 2 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

With China's shrinking workforce, miniscule immigration, real estate bust, & focus on exports, we have echoes of Japan's economy in the late-80s. Selling EVs and solar panels & getting back IOUs in $USD risks what Japan suffered; a bad trade - pennies on the $ when it is all said and done.

28.01.2026 20:44 👍 1 🔁 1 💬 0 📌 0

China has more than 100 EV makers, a result of a push by its leaders a decade ago to move into this strategic space. A classic over-reaction when the invisible hand of the market is slapped away in favor of central management. China was so promising 15 years ago, with that lighter touch, now gone.

28.01.2026 20:32 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
Snow-covered black squirrel high up on a branch of a cherry tree, munching on frozen cherries, tail curled over its back.

Snow-covered black squirrel high up on a branch of a cherry tree, munching on frozen cherries, tail curled over its back.

A view of Queen's Park in Toronto, snow blanketing the lawn, the trees, a picnic table and a sculpture all obscured by the snow, the air itself heavy with falling snow.

A view of Queen's Park in Toronto, snow blanketing the lawn, the trees, a picnic table and a sculpture all obscured by the snow, the air itself heavy with falling snow.

A snow-covered road, barely recognizable with only a set of tire tracks betraying it, a couple walking away to the right, a man walking toward us on the left. The air, the trees, the bushes, the building in view all thick with snow.

A snow-covered road, barely recognizable with only a set of tire tracks betraying it, a couple walking away to the right, a man walking toward us on the left. The air, the trees, the bushes, the building in view all thick with snow.

The storm is hitting Toronto with impressive lake effect snowfall.

25.01.2026 21:08 👍 1 🔁 1 💬 0 📌 0
Preview
How scientists are using Claude to accelerate research and discovery Anthropic is an AI safety and research company that's working to build reliable, interpretable, and steerable AI systems.

I have been reading about the excitement for Claude AI. This is starting to get real. Now we just need cheap energy to run all this stuff. The old days of running on caffeine and donuts are fading into the rear view.

www.anthropic.com/news/acceler...

18.01.2026 16:43 👍 4 🔁 1 💬 0 📌 1
A Blue iguana resting on the ground, viewed from his eye level, tail lifted and blurring into the distance. His blue is not arresting, colouring mostly his mouth and head spikes like he was made up for an evening out.

A Blue iguana resting on the ground, viewed from his eye level, tail lifted and blurring into the distance. His blue is not arresting, colouring mostly his mouth and head spikes like he was made up for an evening out.

West Indian woodpecker hanging vertically on a tree truck. The trunk is clearly decaying, with patches of bark gone.

West Indian woodpecker hanging vertically on a tree truck. The trunk is clearly decaying, with patches of bark gone.

Among the treats Grand Cayman were blue iguanas, endemic to Grand Cayman. The Mastic trail was where we spotted this guy, as well as the West Indian woodpecker. Both were pretty fearless.

17.01.2026 04:16 👍 1 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
A nighttime view looking pass palm trees to a distant coastline, speckled with bright lights, above we see a collection of bright stars. The palm trees are caught betraying strong breezes, the fronds bent and blurred by the motion, and a few low clouds suggest the shape of the island below.

A nighttime view looking pass palm trees to a distant coastline, speckled with bright lights, above we see a collection of bright stars. The palm trees are caught betraying strong breezes, the fronds bent and blurred by the motion, and a few low clouds suggest the shape of the island below.

The weather in Toronto is very, well, Canadian right now. Remembering Grand Cayman, warm breezes, quiet nights. The beach in front of our retreat was swamped with plastic though, even some medical waste. There are beaches kept clean(er) on the island, and 7 mile was spotless.

17.01.2026 04:02 👍 1 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

The idea of letting Americans use their 401ks to make down payments on home purchases is terrible. Most people spend to the limit of their credit for a home, leading to over-investment, and when we encourage people to spend more, they will mostly push up home prices. Not solving affordability.

16.01.2026 19:34 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

Occasionally I notice youtube photographers complaining about extenders for telephoto lenses. But telephoto lenses have a rear set of glass elements which spread the light out, just like extenders. A bad extender degrades quality, sure, just like a bad telephoto lens produces poor images.

09.01.2026 16:55 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

It could be more complete. I notice that University of Toronto and UCSD's Rady School, two schools I care about, haven't registered.

08.01.2026 23:06 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0
American Economic Association

We are deep into the academic econ and finance recruiting season, with schools starting to send out invitations for job talks (full day interview). A great, fairly new resource, free from strategic manipulation from job-seekers, lists most schools looking for recruits: www.aeaweb.org/econtrack/po...

08.01.2026 23:04 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0

Hey #Toronto, the @utoronto.ca medical bookstore appears to have over 3000 boxes of KN95 masks (20 masks/box) available for $0.01/box. Good time to stock up!

www.uoftmedstore.com/catalog.sz?p...

HT @cathycrowe.bsky.social who provides bookstore contact into here: bsky.app/profile/cath...

08.01.2026 00:03 👍 3 🔁 2 💬 0 📌 0