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Aaron Schatz

@aaronschatz.com

Chief Analytics Officer, FTN Fantasy. ESPN NFL writer. Former radio DJ. Founder of Football Outsiders, creator of DVOA, All-Pro/MVP voter.

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Latest posts by Aaron Schatz @aaronschatz.com

I remember when I had hair. Good times. Younger times.

06.03.2026 15:53 ๐Ÿ‘ 1 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
Preview
2025 AGL Totals by Position, from Lions Defensive Backs to 49ers Edge Rushers The Cardinals and Lions set a new record for defensive back injuries, and more details from the 2025 AGL numbers.

Here's Part II of Adjusted Games Lost, looking at numbers by position. The Cardinals and Lions broke the previous record for DB injuries.

ftnfantasy.com/nfl/2025-agl...

06.03.2026 15:52 ๐Ÿ‘ 4 ๐Ÿ” 2 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

ftnfantasy.com/nfl/adjusted...

06.03.2026 15:36 ๐Ÿ‘ 9 ๐Ÿ” 2 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 4 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
Preview
Dorkapalooza: The Oral History of the Sloan Sports Analytics Conference This is how the revolution was quantified

This oral history of Sloan is great. I remember going to the first one 20 years ago. I think I was the only football guy.

I'm kind of proud of my metaphor in here for what Sloan has grown into.

www.theringer.com/2026/03/06/n...

06.03.2026 15:17 ๐Ÿ‘ 22 ๐Ÿ” 7 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 3 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
Preview
March Madness Final Forecaster Simulate the entire 2026 March Madness bracket with FTNโ€™s advanced tournament simulator. Upset probabilities, Final Four odds, & championship projections.

Hey. If you like college basketball, you need to check out the FTN Final Forecaster.

Pick your settings, sim your bracket. Every push gives you a new unique sim with game scores. Hover on teams to see round-by-round probabilities. Free to try.

ftnfantasy.com/march-madnes...

05.03.2026 19:56 ๐Ÿ‘ 4 ๐Ÿ” 1 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

I'm sorry, this trade doesn't work for me unless the Shield of the Americas can guarantee some of Noem's 2026 salary.

05.03.2026 18:49 ๐Ÿ‘ 94 ๐Ÿ” 5 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 7 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

DJ Moore, the original confusing "does the guy want to use periods in his name or not" guy.

05.03.2026 17:05 ๐Ÿ‘ 29 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 2 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

Yes, I counted him for the entire season.

05.03.2026 15:21 ๐Ÿ‘ 0 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
Preview
Adjusted Games Lost 2025: No Team Suffered Like the Cardinals A look at our Adjusted Games Lost injury numbers for 2025 shows the Cardinals came close to the all-time record, as did the Lions on defense.

The flip side of the Cardinals leading the league in AGL with the hardest schedule?

The New England Patriots had the fewest AGL with the easiest schedule!

Other teams high in injuries included Lions, Commanders, Dolphins, 49ers.

ftnfantasy.com/nfl/adjusted...

05.03.2026 14:31 ๐Ÿ‘ 18 ๐Ÿ” 2 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 2 ๐Ÿ“Œ 1
Preview
Adjusted Games Lost 2025: No Team Suffered Like the Cardinals A look at our Adjusted Games Lost injury numbers for 2025 shows the Cardinals came close to the all-time record, as did the Lions on defense.

Sure, the 49ers had a ton of injuries in 2025. But things were even worse for their division rivals the Arizona Cardinals, who combined the hardest schedule in the NFL with a near-record total of Adjusted Games Lost to injury trailing only the 2021 Ravens.

ftnfantasy.com/nfl/adjusted...

05.03.2026 14:28 ๐Ÿ‘ 28 ๐Ÿ” 5 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 3 ๐Ÿ“Œ 2

Mentioned this metric with @minakimes.bsky.social on her pod when talking Carnell Tate and Bryce Lance.

Fun piece to put together every year, putting some context around the receivers in their offenses and what that means.

04.03.2026 18:11 ๐Ÿ‘ 11 ๐Ÿ” 1 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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Bracket edge unlocked ๐Ÿ€

๐Ÿ“Š Our Bracket Forecaster crunches expected win % for every matchup.

Nail those upsets โคต๏ธ

ftnfantasy.com/march-madnes...

04.03.2026 21:20 ๐Ÿ‘ 3 ๐Ÿ” 2 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
Preview
Patriots Free Agency Wish List | Pats Interference Enjoy the videos and music you love, upload original content, and share it all with friends, family, and the world on YouTube.

#Patriots free agency wish lists? #Patriots free agency wish lists.

@aaronschatz.com joined a NEW Pats Interference to swap perfect targets for the Pats next week, including a sleeper pass rusher we both love.

SUBSCRIBE:
๐Ÿ“บ shorturl.at/FpJxC
๐ŸŽ shorturl.at/MxH5I
๐ŸŽง shorturl.at/CqVes

04.03.2026 20:23 ๐Ÿ‘ 6 ๐Ÿ” 1 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

Adjusted Games Lost: coming tomorrow!

04.03.2026 20:10 ๐Ÿ‘ 20 ๐Ÿ” 1 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 2 ๐Ÿ“Œ 1
Preview
2026 NFL Draft: Wide Receiver Production in Context Looking at how college receivers performed in the context of their offenses can point out promising prospects such as Bryce Lance and Brenen Thompson.

Hey! We ran a guest column from @danpizzuta.bsky.social on FTN looking at his Target Yards Added stat for WR prospects in this year's draft.

ftnfantasy.com/2026-nfl-dra...

04.03.2026 17:44 ๐Ÿ‘ 10 ๐Ÿ” 2 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 1

It's pretty bad.

04.03.2026 16:53 ๐Ÿ‘ 2 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

I was going to say that it seems like an overpay and then I realized that this year's 29th pick is like what is usually the 45th pick and it's not really that much of an overpay.

04.03.2026 16:51 ๐Ÿ‘ 29 ๐Ÿ” 1 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 5 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

It's really quite remarkable. Players are better holding onto the ball and there are fewer messed-up handoffs, but also some plays that used to be fumbles are now called as incomplete passes.

04.03.2026 16:42 ๐Ÿ‘ 40 ๐Ÿ” 5 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 6 ๐Ÿ“Œ 1

In 1977, the Vikings and Raiders played a SB rematch with *TEN* fumbles.

The Vikings fumbled 7 times. 4 were recovered by the Raiders. 2 were muffed kickoff returns and are not official fumbles.

The Raiders fumbled 3 times. The Vikings recovered all three.

Each team had a fumble return for a TD.

04.03.2026 16:31 ๐Ÿ‘ 24 ๐Ÿ” 2 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1 ๐Ÿ“Œ 2

RB inside the 5, TD vs expected 2025

(this is a stat that tends to regress to the mean)

Best
R.Dowdle 3.1
B.Tuten 2.2
R.Harvey 1.8
K.Hunt 1.7
Z.Charbonnet 1.7

Worst
S.Barkley -3.1
W.Marks -2.4
T.Etienne -2.2
J.Warren -1.9
JCM -1.6

03.03.2026 20:21 ๐Ÿ‘ 18 ๐Ÿ” 1 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 2 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

QBASE runs on both FTN and ESPN. BackCAST, Playmaker, and SackSEER run on ESPN, but it won't be Insider anymore.

02.03.2026 21:15 ๐Ÿ‘ 1 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

Why? They generally project to what they actually did in the NFL, which is the point of a projection system.

It misses out on late-round picks like Kittle and Kelce, but so did the NFL as a whole.

02.03.2026 17:13 ๐Ÿ‘ 2 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

I do not have an announcer awesomeness projection system.

02.03.2026 16:45 ๐Ÿ‘ 17 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
Preview
Kenyon Sadiq Sets Travis Projection Record Is Oregon's Kenyon Sadiq the best receiving tight end prospect ever?

You can get the projections for this year's top TE prospects here: ftnfantasy.com/nfl/kenyon-s...

02.03.2026 16:39 ๐Ÿ‘ 10 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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Kenyon Sadiq set an all-time record in my Travis TE projection system, thanks to his young age and fast 40 time.

02.03.2026 16:39 ๐Ÿ‘ 31 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 3 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
Preview
Speed Scores 2026: Mike Washington Nears the Record We know Jeremiyah Love is great, but it was Mike Washington Jr. who tied the all-time Speed Score record at this year's combine.

Mike Washington came close to setting the all-time Speed Score record at this year's NFL combine.

ftnfantasy.com/nfl/speed-sc...

02.03.2026 15:48 ๐Ÿ‘ 9 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1 ๐Ÿ“Œ 1

Watching old football makes me realize the current NFL does not have enough kickers who are brothers.

You've got your Mike-Mayers, your Grammaticas, and your Zendejases.

02.03.2026 13:58 ๐Ÿ‘ 29 ๐Ÿ” 1 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 10 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

Derek Carr DVOA rank among qualifying quarterbacks

2024: 13th
2023: 16th
2022: 19th
2021: 11th

All above average.

01.03.2026 19:44 ๐Ÿ‘ 19 ๐Ÿ” 1 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 4 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

Derek Carr was always underrated according to DVOA. He's also going to be 35 and hasn't played in a year.

01.03.2026 19:41 ๐Ÿ‘ 44 ๐Ÿ” 2 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 8 ๐Ÿ“Œ 1
Preview
Speed Scores 2026: Mike Washington Nears the Record We know Jeremiyah Love is great, but it was Mike Washington Jr. who tied the all-time Speed Score record at this year's combine.

New at @ftnfantasy.com from @brykno.bsky.social: Speed Scores for 2026 RB at the combine, as Mike Washington of Arkansas comes very close to the all-time record.

ftnfantasy.com/nfl/speed-sc...

01.03.2026 16:33 ๐Ÿ‘ 10 ๐Ÿ” 3 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0